Two teams on the complete opposite spectrum of the Big Ten standings will clash on Sunday afternoon in Ann Arbor, as the Purdue Boilermakers take on the Michigan Wolverines.
The Boilermakers have won 10 of their last 11 games and now find themselves two games ahead in first place of the Big Ten standings at 12-3 in conference play.
The Wolverines have lost 14 of their last 16 games and are at the bottom of the Big Ten standings with a 3-13 conference record. Will the Boilermakers handle business on the road and cover in the college basketball odds this week?
Here are our free college basketball picks for Purdue vs. Michigan at Crisler Center in Ann Arbor on Sunday, February 25.
Purdue vs Michigan best odds
Purdue vs Michigan picks and predictions
The first meeting between these two teams this season resulted in a 32-point home victory for the Purdue Boilermakers, who shot 51.5% from the field and 14/21 from downtown. They outrebounded the Michigan Wolverines 45-34 and both Zach Edey and Braden Smith finished the game with double-doubles.
Purdue has one of the best offenses in the country, ranking ninth in points per game at 84.9. It also ranks second in KenPom’s offensive efficiency and shoots a pristine 40.6% from 3-point range, the best mark in the country. The Boilermakers have been held under 70 points twice all season and have scored 80+ points 18 times this year.
On the other end, Michigan has a terrible defense. The Wolverines rank 339th in scoring defense, allowing 78.8 points per contest. They also rank 168th in KenPom’s defensive efficiency and allow opponents to shoot 36.0% from downtown (324th). They have allowed 10 different opponents to score more than 80 points this season.
Michigan allowed two other high-scoring teams in Iowa and Illinois to score 88 points apiece in Ann Arbor. Purdue has scored more than 80 points in three different road games against Northwestern, Indiana, and Iowa. All three are ranked higher in defensive efficiency than the Wolverines.
Michigan not only allows opponents to shoot a great percentage from the floor, but they also allow a ton of shots. They rank 337th in the nation in allowing opponents to average 63.1 field goal attempts per game. They also allow 300th in offensive rebounds allowed, which gives even more possessions to their opponents.
With great rebounding and shot-making from the Purdue side of the ball, they should have plenty of opportunities to light up the scoreboard. The Boilermakers put up 99 points in their last matchup with Michigan and even on the road, they should have no issues nearing 90 once more.
My best bet: Purdue team total Over 82.5 (-115 at DraftKings)
Purdue vs Michigan same-game parlay
Purdue team total Over 82.5
Zach Edey Over 11.5 rebounds
Lance Jones Over 2.5 made threes
We mentioned how Michigan gives up a ton of offensive boards and that plays perfectly into Zach Edey’s hands. He averages 5.4 offensive rebounds per game in conference play and had four in his previous matchup with Michigan this season. He'll be feasting on the boards again on Sunday.
Finally, Michigan also allows opponents to shoot 36.0% from 3-point range (324th). Lance Jones leads Purdue with 7.1 long-range attempts per game in conference play. He was 5-for-9 shooting from three in the last matchup and should have no problem going Over this line today.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Purdue vs Michigan spread and Over/Under analysis
The Boilermakers are 16-10-1 against the spread this season, while the Wolverines are a dreadful 7-20 ATS. Purdue is 5-3 straight up in road games and 4-4 ATS. Michigan is 5-8 SU at home and 4-9 ATS.
Michigan has only covered three games all season as underdogs and has never covered a game where it also lost the game straight up. I think there's little to no chance the Wolverines pull off the upset and as such, I like Purdue to also cover the number.
Both teams tend to lean toward the Over in their games as the Over is 18-9 in Purdue games and 15-12 in Michigan games. Since my best bet is on the Purdue team total Over, it's almost a given that I'd also lean toward the Over for the game.
If the Boilermakers score 85 points, Michigan would only need 67 points for the Over to hit. Michigan has scored 67+ in 20 of their 27 games this season, including scoring exactly 67 in the first Purdue matchup.
Purdue vs Michigan betting trend to know
Purdue has cashed the team total Over in 20 of its last 34 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Purdue vs. Michigan.
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Purdue vs Michigan game info
| Location: | Crisler Center, Ann Arbor, MI |
| Date: | Sunday, February 25, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 2:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
Purdue vs Michigan key injuries
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