New Mexico vs San Diego State Predictions, Picks, and Odds: No Shortage of Buckets

Two medium-seeded teams in the Mountain West Conference tournament have gotten hot at the right time and will be competing for the MWC title and automatic berth into the March Madness odds tonight in Vegas when the New Mexico Lobos take on the San Diego State Aztecs. 

The Lobos lost six of their final 10 games in the regular season before winning three straight tournament games to reach this final. The Aztecs lost two straight and three of their last five regular season games before winning consecutive tournament games. Which Mountain West contender will leave Vegas cutting down the nets and cover in the college basketball odds this week? 

Here are our free college basketball picks and predictions for New Mexico vs. San Diego State on Saturday, March 16. 

New Mexico vs San Diego State best odds

New Mexico vs San Diego State picks and predictions

The New Mexico Lobos and San Diego State Aztecs met twice in the regular season with each team taking care of business at home. The Lobos won the first matchup 88-70 as 3.5-point favorites and the total soared over the number of 149 points. Then the Aztecs won 81-70, covered the six-point spread, and snuck Over the total of 150.5. 

Those two games were typical to the style of basketball that Richard Pitino and the Lobos like to play. However, this conference tournament has been a bit different. They have played excellent defense and held their opponents to 56, 66, and 61 points in the three games leading up to this final.

The Lobos ranked 18th in the nation in scoring (82.4 points per game), third in field-goal attempts (65.2), and 65th in free-throw attempts (21.7). Despite those numbers, New Mexico is a poor 3-point shooting team, ranking 267th in attempts (19.8) and 220th in conversion (33.4%). It relies on fast-break points and attacking the rim to rack up those points. 

The Aztecs are typically a defensive juggernaut with an efficient but low-scoring offense. This year is not quite the same, as they rank 150th in scoring (74.7 points per game) and have scored 74 and 86 in each of their two conference tournament games while allowing 71 and 70, respectively. They allowed their opponents to reach 70 points in six of their 18 conference games in the regular season. 

While neither team is a great 3-point shooting team, they can still rack up the points with their aggressive play attacking the rim and forcing turnovers that lead to fast breaks. There were only 14 total made threes in the first matchup and 12 in the second, yet both games went Over 150 total points, and there were 51 and 46 combined free-throw attempts in each. 

This game is going to be close throughout and both teams will play aggressively by attacking the rims and drawing fouls. Also, both teams will attack the passing lanes and get easy buckets in transition. This will lead to a high-scoring game for a third straight time and regardless of who takes the rubber match, the total will go Over. 

My best bet: Over 142 (-110 at Caesars)

New Mexico vs San Diego State same-game parlay

Over 142

Jaedon Ledee Over 20.5 points

Jaelen House Over 15.5 points

+400 at Caesars

Jaedon Ledee has been the Aztecs' player of the tournament. He scored 34 points against UNLV and 22 points in the semifinal against Utah State. Ledee scored 15 and 23 points in each of his two matchups with New Mexico this season and averages 20.9 overall this year. Ledee will cap off the tournament with another big performance. 

Finally, we will look for a scorer on the New Mexico side and it will be their best free-throw shooter, Jaelen House. He scored 26 points, going 8-for-8 in free throws in the first matchup and 22 points with 7 of 9 free throws in the second. He scored 16, 29, and 19 points so far in the tournament and will be the Lobos' leading scorer yet again. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

New Mexico vs San Diego State spread and Over/Under analysis

The Lobos went 19-11 against the spread in the regular season and a perfect 4-0 ATS on neutral courts. They have also covered all three of their conference tournament games in Las Vegas. The Aztecs went 12-16-1 ATS in the regular season and 1-2 at neutral sites. They covered the semifinal game but failed to cover in their first game in Vegas.  

This game will come down to the wire, but I think that favors San Diego State with their experience. The Aztecs have four players who played significant minutes in the National Championship game last year and they will use that experience to pull out another tough win. I have a slight lean here toward San Diego State on the spread. 

The Over was 15-14 in San Diego State regular season games, but a perfect 3-0 in neutral site games and both MWC tournament games went Over. The Over was 18-12 in New Mexico regular season games and 3-1 in neutral site games, but all three MWC tournament games have gone Under. San Diego State is going to be tougher for the Lobos to stop and both teams will get into the 70’s in this matchup. 

New Mexico vs San Diego State betting trend to know

New Mexico has hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games and San Diego State has only hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 37 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for New Mexico vs. San Diego State.

New Mexico vs San Diego State game info

New Mexico vs San Diego State key injuries

Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic