College Basketball Best Bets This Week: California Dreaming

College basketball fans were reminded this weekend that Cinderellas don't only emerge in March. That became abundantly clear on Saturday in Morgantown, when the unranked - and widely overlooked - West Virginia Mountaineers pulled off the upset of the season by defeating the No. 3 Kansas Jayhawks 91-85. It was a result that few saw coming, including bookmakers, who had installed Kansas as a prohibitive 10.5-point favorite entering the contest.

There's bound to be even more upsets this week as all 353 Division I teams return to the hardwood. We've hand-picked the best games on college basketball's jam-packed schedule and have tasked our experts with providing analysis for each matchup. Below you'll find the latest odds along with a best bet for every game we're tracking. Let the games begin!

Best bet: Over 149 (-110)
Both of these MAC teams are significantly better on offense than defense. Kent State is 135th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency while ranking 241st in adjusted defensive efficiency and Ohio is 119th on offense and 265th on defense. The Bobcats are coming off a low-scoring contest against an extremely slow Akron side but they had averaged 78.3 ppg in their previous six contests. Meanwhile, the Golden Flashes are coming off a shootout victory against Bowling Green and the Over is 13-4 in their lined games this season while cashing in every home contest. 

Best bet: Wisconsin -2.5 (-115) 
Wisconsin got the best of the first matchup with Michigan State and will look to pile on here at the Kohl Center, where they have won 10 of 11 games. Greg Gard’s team also enters this contest brimming with confidence having won eight of its last nine overall. They have a ton of size as their top three scorers all stand at least 6-foot-6. That stands in contrast to Sparty, whose bigs will be at a disadvantage. Malik Hall (6-foot-7) is the only Sparty player who averaged 20 minutes or more and stands above 6-foot-6. Wisconsin used this height advantage to its advantage in the first matchup, winning the rebound battle 35-22.

 
Best bet: Seattle -6.5 (-110)
Utah Valley had an incredible season last year but after losing all five starters and their head coach it was obvious the program would take a huge step back. IT struggled during the non-conference part of its schedule and things haven't gotten any better in WAC play, just snapping a three-game losing streak by beating Utah Tech at home. Unfortunately, the Wolverines are back on the road and facing a Seattle team that's 7-3 ATS in its last 10 and was unlucky to lose three games in overtime. The Wolverines are 333rd in the country in EFG% (45.3%) and 235th in turnover rate, and they'll be shut down by a Redhawks squad that is 32nd in points allowed per possession (.943).

 
Best bet: Stanford +2 (-110)
The wrong team is favored here, with Stanford boasting the superior record and being better on both ends of the floor. The Cardinal are 65th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency while the Golden Bears are 85th, and Stanford is 129th in adjusted defensive efficiency, 46 spots higher than Cal. Home-court advantage won't be enough to bridge that gap, especially given the close travel proximity and the familiarity of a rivalry game. The Cardinal are 5-2 SU and ATS since inserting freshman guard Kanaan Carlyle into the starting lineup. Carlyle leads the team with 15.7 ppg, and he's one of five players averaging more than 11.0 ppg. With Cal 243rd in opponent EFG% (51.8%) and 265th in opponent turnover rate, they won't be able to slow down Stanford's attack tonight.

Where can I bet on college basketball?

You can bet on college basketball odds at every online sportsbook and casino. The best sites offer NCAA basketball point spreads, Over/Under totals, derivative bets, NCAAB futures and even prop plays as well. Check out our list of the best U.S. betting sites and sportsbooks in 2023 to find a location in your region.

Strategies for betting on college basketball

Betting on college basketball games can be exciting, but it's important to approach it with a strategic mindset. Here are some helpful tips to consider before laying down a wager:

Research teams and players: The college basketball landscape is always changing. Stay up to date on team rosters, NCAAB player injuries, and coaching changes to make the most informed decision possible.

Analyze team statistics: Review NCAAB team statistics such as points per game, field goal percentage, 3-point shooting, and defensive efficiency. Knowing is half the battle, especially when it comes to outwitting oddsmakers.

Study historical performance: Examine head-to-head matchups, recent game results, and trends between the teams. Some teams may have historical dominance over others. Just remember that not all trends are created equal. Try to rely on more recent data that takes into account the team's current personnel and playing style.

Home court advantage: Consider the impact of home-court advantage. Teams tend to perform better when playing in front of their home crowd, especially in places like Duke's jam-packed Cameron Indoor Stadium, where the frenzied fans are practically on top of the court.

Practice bankroll management: Set a budget for your betting activities and stick to it. Bankroll management is crucial for long-term success.

Shop for the best odds: Compare NCAAB odds from multiple sportsbooks to find the best value for your bets. Even a slight difference in odds can make a significant impact on your profits, particularly if you're placing larger wagers.

Play the long game: Betting on college basketball is a marathon, not a sprint. Don't get discouraged by short-term losses, and avoid chasing those losses with bigger bets.

AP Top 25 Rankings

Rank	Team	Record	Points
1	UConn	17-2	1,508
2	Purdue	17-2	1,472
3	North Carolina	15-3	1,391
4	Houston	16-2	1,309
5	Tennessee	14-4	1,237
6	Kentucky	14-3	1,205
7	Kansas	15-3	1,157
8	Auburn	16-2	1,094
9	Arizona	14-4	1,060
10	Illinois	14-4	862
11	Oklahoma	15-3	849
12	Duke	13-4	832
13	Wisconsin	14-4	801
14	Marquette	13-5	747
15	Baylor	14-4	645
16	Dayton	15-2	546
17	Creighton	14-5	505
18	Utah State	17-2	381
19	Memphis	15-4	329
20	Texas Tech	15-3	304
21	BYU	14-4	294
22	Florida Atlantic	15-4	290
23	Iowa State	14-4	253
24	Colorado State	15-3	214
25	New Mexico	16-3	177

Team rankings as of January 23, 2024.

Biggest riser: Auburn moved up five spots to No. 8 after pounding No. 22 Ole Miss 82-59 on Saturday. The Tigers hounded the Rebels into 17 turnovers and held them to 36.8% shooting from the field and 23.5% from beyond the arc.

Biggest faller: Memphis plummeted nine spots to No. 19 following back-to-back losses to unranked South Florida and Tulane. The Tigers are now just 15-4 and in seventh place in the hyper competitive AAC.

The Associated Press (AP) Top 25 rankings are determined by a panel of approximately 65 sportswriters and broadcasters from various media outlets across the U.S.

Each voter is asked to submit a list of their Top 25 college basketball teams. They rank these teams based on their assessment of their performance, including wins, losses, and overall team strength. The rankings are submitted on a weekly basis during the college basketball season.

Once all the individual ballots are submitted, the AP compiles the rankings by assigning points to each team based on their position in the voters' lists. A team that is ranked first on a ballot receives 25 points, a team ranked second receives 24 points, and so on. The points are then tallied to determine the overall rankings.

The AP Top 25 rankings are released every Monday at noon during the college basketball season. 

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