One team looking for their first SEC win and another looking to stay in the SEC title hunt will clash on Wednesday night in Gainesville, as the Missouri Tigers take on the Florida Gators.
The Tigers have lost 14 straight games and 17 of their last 18 and are still searching for their first SEC victory after starting the season 7-2 with road wins over Pittsburgh and Minnesota. The Gators have won eight of their last 10 games and are just two games back of the top of the conference at 9-5 in SEC play. Will the Gators handle business at home and cover in the college basketball odds this week?
Here are our free college basketball picks and predictions for Missouri vs. Florida on Wednesday, February 28.
Missouri vs Florida best odds
Missouri vs Florida picks and predictions
The first meeting between these teams this season resulted in a 12-point road victory for the Florida Gators. Florida covered the spread, and the total went Over with a final score of 79-67. The Gators shot 9 of 22 from three, while the Missouri Tigers shot a dreadful 3-for-16 from downtown.
Besides shooting from deep, the other major factor in that game was the massive rebounding discrepancy in favor of Florida. The Gators had 38 rebounds to Missouri’s 22 and 11 offensive boards to the Tigers’ two. That game was certainly not anything out of the ordinary for these two teams.
Missouri ranks 333rd in the nation in rebounding percentage, bringing in only 45.7% of their opportunities. They only grab 9.0 offensive boards (280th), 22.3 defensive boards (346th), and 31.3 total rebounds (347th). Meanwhile, the Tigers allow opponents to bring down 12.0 offensive boards (341st), 25.2 defensive boards (230th), and 37.2 total rebounds (303rd).
On the other end of the spectrum, Florida ranks 15th in the nation in rebounding percentage, bringing in 55.0% of their opportunities. They grab a stunning 15.9 offensive boards (second), 28.0 defensive boards (23rd), and 43.9 total rebounds (best in the country). This mismatch will be hard to ignore in this game.
The best offensive rebounder for the Gators is Micah Handlogten with 3.8 per game in conference play. However, he is not available to find for player props. Instead, we will pivot to a player that could hit the defensive boards hard, and that is Will Richard. He had five rebounds in the last matchup and averages more than one offensive board per game this season.
Handlogten has had issues with foul trouble recently and if he continues to play low minutes, then there will be plenty of rebounding opportunities for others. Richard has eight games this season with five or more boards. This is an excellent opportunity to add to that total at plus money.
My best bet: Will Richard Over 4.5 rebounds (+115 at DraftKings)
Missouri vs Florida same-game parlay
Will Richard Over 4.5 rebounds
Zyon Pullin Over 14.5 points
Florida team total Over 83.5 points
We will start with our best bet in this game to come up with a couple more plays that correlate for a nice same-game parlay.
The Tigers commit a ton of fouls, ranking 334th in the nation with 19.7 per game. The Gators top free-throw taker in conference play is Zyon Pullin with 4.6 per contest. Pullin averages 15.7 points per game in SEC play and had a perfect 6-for-6 mark on free throws in their last matchup. We will add his point total Over here.
Finally, we will look at the Florida team total. It is set below their regular season average of 84.8 points per game, despite the Missouri defense ranking 269th in points allowed. The Gators failed to reach this number in the last matchup, but that was on the road. They have scored 80+ points in 10 of their 13 home games this season.
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Missouri vs Florida spread and Over/Under analysis
The Tigers are a dreadful 7-20 against the spread this season overall. Some of that has been how they have vastly underperformed from what they were expected to be. Missouri is 4-3 ATS in games where they were double-digit underdogs. Florida is a dead even 13-13-1 ATS this season and 2-6-1 ATS when favored by double digits.
Florida is going to have no problem on offense and will get their points, but the spread is just too high for a team that mostly just loses close games and rarely gets blown out. I do not love the Tigers ATS here by any means, but if forced to take a side, I would certainly lean towards Missouri at this high number.
The Tigers typically do not get a ton of possessions in their games, but the Gators will play much faster and force that number higher. Missouri plays aggressive defense and forces a lot of steals that will also help the game go faster. These two teams scored 146 points the last time they met, but I expect more scoring here. Florida ranks eighth in the country in scoring and will put up enough points here to force the total to go Over.
Missouri vs Florida betting trend to know
Florida has hit the Over in 12 of their last 20 games at home. Find more college basketball betting trends for Missouri vs. Florida.
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Missouri vs Florida game info
| Location: | Exactech Arena, Gainesville, FL |
| Date: | Wednesday, February 28, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 6:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SEC Network |
Missouri vs Florida key injuries
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