Mississippi vs Mississippi State Odds, Picks and Predictions: Matthews Makes for Miserable Time for Rebels

Part two of the basketball version of the Egg Bowl will tip off on Wednesday night in Starkville as the Mississippi Rebels take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs. 

The Rebels have lost three of their last four games and now find themselves 6-6 in SEC play and the last team in the field of 68 in ESPN’s Bracketology. The Bulldogs have won three straight and are also 6-6 in conference play, but with a much better resume. 

Will the Bulldogs avenge their previous loss to Mississippi now that they are at home and cover in the college basketball odds this week? 

Here are our free college basketball picks and predictions for Mississippi vs. Mississippi State at Humphrey Coliseum in Starkville on Wednesday, February 21. 

Mississippi vs Mississippi State best odds

Mississippi vs Mississippi State picks and predictions

These two programs met three weeks ago in Oxford, and the Mississippi Rebels won and covered 86-82 at home. At that point in time, the Rebels were 18-3 and looking like one of the top contenders in the SEC. However, they lost three consecutive games after that contest, while the Mississippi State Bulldogs won three straight games after that loss and a road loss at Alabama. 

The Bulldogs have been a different team at home. They are 10-2 in the Humphrey Coliseum and have four consecutive home wins, including an upset over Auburn in late January. Only Alabama has defeated Mississippi State on their home court in the SEC. 

Meanwhile, the Rebels have been dreadful on the road this season with a 3-5 record. Their only conference road win was at Texas A&M in late January. They have lost road games at Tennessee, LSU, Auburn, South Carolina, and Kentucky. One of their biggest issues is their lack of rebounding prowess. 

Mississippi ranks 266th in rebounding percentage, grabbing only 48.2% of the rebounding opportunities. They also rank 355th allowing 12.6 offensive boards per game, while only grabbing 23.8 defensive boards per contest (293rd). This will be a huge mismatch against the Bulldogs. 

Mississippi State ranks 43rd in the country in offensive rebounding, grabbing 12.4 offensive boards per game. They also rank 17th in the country in rebounding percentage at 54.7%. In their previous matchup, Mississippi State outrebounded Mississippi 33-24 despite the game being high scoring and in a losing effort.

Cameron Matthews has been the Bulldogs’ best offensive rebounder in conference play, averaging 3.4 per game. He also averages 7.8 total rebounds per contest and had five offensive boards and 12 total rebounds in their last matchup with Mississippi. His rebounding total will be my best bet for Round 2 on Wednesday night. 

My best bet: Cameron Matthews Over 8.5 rebounds (-105 at DraftKings)

Mississippi vs Mississippi State same-game parlay

Cameron Matthews Over 8.5 rebounds

Under 141

Mississippi State moneyline

+355 at DraftKings

We will start with our best bet in this game and come up with a couple of more plays that correlate for a nice same-game parlay. 

While Mississippi is typically a higher-scoring team, they have not been as good offensively on the road and have had five of their last eight games go Under the total. This is the highest the total has been set in this rivalry since 2019. I like the Under here at that high of a number.

Finally, we will finish with the Bulldogs to win this game straight up. The spread is a little high at 6.5 points and despite their great home record, they are only 5-6-1 against the spread in those games. The Bulldogs will dominate the glass and keep the game low-scoring, which will be enough to win, but maybe not enough to cover.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Mississippi vs Mississippi State spread and Over/Under analysis

The Rebels are both 3-5 straight up and against the spread in road games. We mentioned that the Bulldogs are great straight up (10-2), but mediocre ATS (5-6-1) at home. This spread is set a bit too high for my liking, but I am confident in a Mississippi State home victory. I would lean towards the Bulldogs on the spread with their rebounding prowess but would not be surprised to see a close game. 

Mississippi games have a slight lean towards the Over with 13 of their 25 games going Over the total. However, that dips to only three of eight road games going Over. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs have had 14 of their 25 games go Under the total and it remains similar at home (seven of 12). 

The Bulldogs only allow 67.4 points per game and rank 13th in KenPom’s defensive efficiency. Combine that with their rebounding strengths and Mississippi is going to need to shoot extremely well for this game to go in their favor. However, the Rebels only attempt 19.8 3-pointers per game (273rd) and the Bulldogs rank eighth in the country in opponent 3-point field goal percentage (28.5%). This game screams Under to me. 

Mississippi vs Mississippi State betting trend to know

Mississippi State has only hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 32 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Mississippi vs. Mississippi State.

Mississippi vs Mississippi State game info

Mississippi vs Mississippi State key injuries

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