The Michigan State Spartans and Indiana Hoosiers have Big Ten seeding on the line when they meet Sunday afternoon at legendary Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall.
Despite the Hoosiers' three-game winning streak as the underdog, the college basketball odds have them listed as a short home underdog when they meet a Spartans program looking to improve upon their Wednesday night home victory over Northwestern.
Can Michigan State slow down the red-hot Hoosiers? Join me as I examine this Big Ten matchup with free college basketball picks for Michigan State vs. Indiana on Sunday, March 10.
Michigan State vs Indiana best odds
Michigan State vs Indiana picks and predictions
Mike Wooden’s Indiana Hoosiers had a bad 2-8 stretch but rebounded with three consecutive victories as the underdog and find themselves in a familiar position as the home underdog against the Michigan State Spartans.
Their incredible response to adversity has landed the Hoosiers an opportunity to end its 2023-24 campaign with a .500 record in conference play, a hopefully better seed in next week’s tournament, and — more importantly — a possible at-large bid into the Big Dance.
Indiana has been the underdog on the board in six of its previous 10 tilts, and sadly for its opponents, the Hoosiers are 4-2 ATS and 4-2 SU in those games.
The Hoosiers will probably have to win this Quad-1 tilt to be considered for an at-large bid. They're 3-8 in Quad-1 games this season but have won three of their previous four. They face an MSU team with a 5-4 Quad-2 record that struggles to defend on the road. Those struggles will continue on Sunday.
The problem with backing the Spartans is that they haven’t fared well on the road. They're 3-6 in the visitors' jersey and 4-4-1 ATS in their road greens. They’ve dropped three of their previous five away tilts and have scored as many as 80 points and as few as 66 during those five away clashes.
Sunday is a game the Hoosiers need to win, and they have the offense to compete with the Spartans. Indiana is better at shooting inside than outside the arc, but MSU doesn’t run shooters off the 3-point line well, and Indiana can hit open looks.
Michigan State could barely score against Northwestern at home and the Assembly Hall crowd won’t make scoring any easier on Sunday. Indiana is the deeper team with good length, and they’ll likely win the battle of the boards.
My best bet: Indiana +3.5 (-108 at DraftKings)
Michigan State vs Indiana same-game parlay
Indiana +3.5
Over 142.5
Four of their last five meetings have ended Over the total and these programs have cleared Sunday’s number in three of their previous five meetings. Michigan State is 8-11 to the Under in Big Ten play, but Indiana has recorded an 11-8 O/U record against conference foes.
The Hoosiers are playing great. They've covered all three of their last conference matchups, with each one going Over the total, and I expect the same trend to continue on Sunday.
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Michigan State vs Indiana spread and Over/Under analysis
We have the rare occurrence where all the major sportsbooks open a game with the same number without any movement.
The Spartans being favored is probably accurate; last season, they split their season series with each program holding serve at home. If that trend interests you, Indiana's available at +140.
The total is 142.5 points, nearly everywhere except for FanDuel. They have Over 141.5 and offer -105 on the Under 141.5. That’s a dandy number, but it will likely rise as four of their last five have all ended Over the total.
Indiana winning straight up is undoubtedly in play. I like how the Hoosiers responded to that horrid stretch of losses that essentially made Sunday’s tilt with MSU a must-win game for them.
The Spartans have won four of their previous five head-to-head meetings, but they're 3-6 as the away team, and if they lose Sunday, they’ll likely receive an at-large bid anyway.
Michigan State vs Indiana betting trend to know
Indiana is 3-1 ATS over its past four games as the home underdog. Find more college basketball betting trends for Michigan State vs. Indiana.
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Michigan State vs Indiana game info
| Location: | Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall, Bloomington, IN |
| Date: | Sunday, March 10, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 4:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
Michigan State vs Indiana key injuries
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