Iowa State vs Baylor Odds, Picks and Predictions: Walter Goes Off From Long Range

Two teams that could be legit contenders down the road in the Big 12 Conference will clash on Saturday night in Waco, as the Iowa State Cyclones take on the Baylor Bears. 

The Cyclones have won five of their last six games and find themselves tied atop the Big 12 standings at 5-2 in conference play. The Bears lost three straight before their last game and need a big win to get back into the regular season conference title hunt. Which Big 12 contender will take this primetime event and cover the college basketball odds this week? 

Here are our free college basketball picks and predictions for Iowa State vs. Baylor on Saturday, February 3.

Iowa State vs Baylor best odds

Iowa State vs Baylor picks and predictions

Iowa State’s one of the most balanced teams in the country, ranking 46th in scoring offense (80.5 points per game) and sixth in scoring defense (61.8 ppg). This has led to a 16-4 overall record on the season and a 13th overall ranking in KenPom. The Cyclones have proved to be a legit title contender on both ends of the floor. 

However, they do not score because of a quick tempo or heavy shooting volume. The Cyclones rank 119th in adjusted tempo and 293rd in three-point attempts at 19.2 per game. They get their buckets through efficient offense and drawing fouls from their opponents. 

On the other end, the Bears rely heavily on shooting lights out from the floor. They rank 16th in scoring (84.7 ppg) but 152nd in scoring defense (71.0 ppg). The Bears also play slow though with a 269th ranking in adjusted tempo. However, they shoot 49.3% from the field (14th) and 40.2% from downtown (fourth). 

While the Cyclones have a fantastic defense, they allow a ton of 3-point attempts because of how well they guard the drive. They rank 291st in 3-point attempts allowed with 24.1 per game. Baylor will take advantage of that, especially at home where it averages 9.5 made threes per contest. 

The player who will likely be the biggest beneficiary of the extra 3-point attempts for Baylor will be leading scorer Ja’Kobe Walter. He averages a team-leading 5.7 three attempts per game and makes 2.1. Walter averages 6.3 attempts at home and 5.6 attempts in conference play. 

The Cyclones will continue what has worked best for them and limit the number of “easy” shots opponents get and force Baylor to make its threes. This opportunity will give a solid advantage to Walter’s made threes prop and that will be my best bet in this Big 12 rivalry game. 

My best bet: Ja’Kobe Walter Over 2.5 threes made (+125 at DraftKings)

Iowa State vs Baylor same-game parlay

Ja’Kobe Walter Over 2.5 threes made

Ja’Kobe Walter Under 5.5 rebounds

Milan Momcilovic Under 3.5 rebounds

+525 at DraftKings

In line with our best bet on a player prop in this game, we will add a couple other plays that align for a same game parlay. 

With Walter being the one doing most of the shooting, he will be almost completely out of the offensive rebound scene. He only averages 3.2 defensive boards per game, and we can get his Under at 5.5.  

Finally, Baylor ranks third in the country allowing only 20.5 defensive boards per game. This will hurt Milan Momcilovic the most for Iowa State. He averages 0.4 offensive boards and 2.9 defensive boards. I highly doubt he gets four rebounds tonight. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Iowa State vs Baylor spread and Over/Under analysis

Both teams have been great against the spread this season, as the Cyclones are 12-7-1 ATS and the Bears are 12-6-1 ATS. While it certainly seems like the Cyclones are the hotter team right now, it’s a bit deceptive in that Baylor had a big road stretch where it struggled. The Bears are 10-1 straight up at home, while the Cyclones are 2-2 straight up on the road. 

One similar opponent these two teams played is BYU, where Iowa State lost on the road 87-72 and Baylor beat the Cougars at home 81-72. I think we see a similar home performance from the Bears, and they get the big win and cover. 

The total certainly leans towards the Over for both teams. 142 is a very low number considering each team averages more than 80 points per game. While the Cyclones have an excellent defense, they have allowed big scores on the road with 80 to DePaul, 71 to Oklahoma, 87 to BYU, and 72 to TCU. Would be surprised to see an Under here.    

Iowa State vs Baylor betting trend to know

Baylor has hit the Over in 18 of its last 31 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Iowa State vs. Baylor.

Iowa State vs Baylor game info

Iowa State vs Baylor key injuries

Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic