Houston vs Temple Odds, Picks and Predictions: Defense Dominates in Revenge Game

No. 3 Houston (21-2) is out for blood as it looks to avenge its only loss in AAC play this season tonight.

Despite being -19.5 favorites, the Cougars were shocked in a 56-55 loss at home to Temple (14-9) in their first matchup of the year on January 22. 

Kelvin Sampson’s side hits the road looking to make things right in the rematch, although the going may be tougher than some anticipate against a surging Owls team riding a four-game winning streak. 

Can the Owls play spoiler yet again? Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for Houston vs Temple on Sunday, February 5 to find out.

Houston vs Temple best odds

Houston vs Temple picks and predictions

Houston entered as a -19.5 favorite at home in their first match with Temple, yet lost the game outright by a point. The Cougars were shut down offensively, converting just 19 of 56 field goal attempts (33.9%) and 11 of their 21 free throws (52.4%).

The Owls hung on for the 56-55 win despite shooting just 31.1% from the field. Converting 20 of their 22 free throw attempts (90.9%) was ultimately the determining factor. 

I believe that the offensive struggles we saw in the first matchup will pop up again in the rematch. Houston is elite by all measures defensively, ranking third in points allowed per game (55.2), second in field goal defense (35.3%), and third in 3-point defense (26.3%). Temple is a poor shooting team that checks in at 239th in points per game (69.4), 306th in field goal shooting (42.1%), and 314th in three-point shooting (31.5%). 

The Owls like to chuck up threes, but they aren't particularly adept at making them. They rank 72nd in three-point attempts per 100 trips upcourt, but just 275th in three-point percentage against the average opponent, per Haslametrics. The Cougars are top-notch at shutting down the arc by any statistical measure, as they rank 301st in 3-point attempts allowed per 100 trips upcourt, and fifth in 3-point defense.

Temple’s defense isn’t elite, but it's certainly the strength of the team — a team that has been playing its best basketball of the season. 

The Owls surrender 68.1 ppg while ranking 81st in field goal defense (41.7%) and 44th in three-point defense (30.7%). Houston ranks just 187th in three-point attempts per game (21.6), and 303rd in free throw attempts per game (15.7), so extra points may be difficult to come by in this spot. 

The Cougars will be forced to score points the old-fashioned way against a Temple defense ranking 44th in near-proximity defense, and 73rd in mid-range defense. 

Both teams have been a profitable 12-10-1 to the Under this season. Temple has been trending in that direction when playing difficult opponents, going 4-0-1 to the Under in its last five games against teams with a winning straight-up record. 

As for the Cougars, a trend that I’ve been riding for much of the season is that they are 39-17-1 to the Under in their last 57 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600.

I expect another low-scoring game in the rematch.

My best bet: Under 131.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

Houston vs Temple spread analysis

Houston is favored by 11.5 points across the board at the time of this writing. 

Since the first meeting, Houston has rebounded with three straight victories over UCF, Cincinnati, and Wichita State. However, those wins didn’t come in the typical dominant fashion that fans were used to seeing early in the season. The Cougars covered by a single point against UCF (82-71 win as 10-point favorites) but otherwise are just 1-3 ATS in their last four games. 

The advanced numbers still adore Houston. Sampson’s side is the number one overall team in KenPom, ranking seventh in adjusted offensive efficiency and eighth in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Cougars are outsourcing opponents by 20 points per game, averaging 75.2 ppg offensively, while allowing just 55.2 ppg defensively. 

However, they have not been performing up to expectations lately, covering the spread just twice in their last six games. 

Temple is riding a four-game winning streak, the first Houston meeting being the second win in that streak. The Owls have needed overtime in two straight games, notching narrow wins over both USF and UCF. 

Aaron McKie’s squad checks in at 107th in KenPom, ranking 151st in adjusted offensive efficiency and 89th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Those numbers don’t truly capture the improvement this team has made as the season has progressed.

Temple is 14-8-1 ATS on the season and has been on a hot streak, covering five of its last six.

Houston vs Temple Over/Under analysis

Be sure to shop around if playing the total, as it ranges from 130.5 to 131.5 at current depending on the book.

Houston plays in a lot of Sunday games, and the Cougars have trended strongly to the Under (6-0-1) in its last seven such contests. The Under is 6-2-1 in their last nine road games against a team with a winning home record.

The Cougars will look to play air-tight defense in a revenge game on the road. The Owls have been playing well but are far from an efficient offense, ranking 194th in field goal percentage against the average opponent. 

While efficiency has been called into question previously in this article, another reason to not expect a scoring outburst is volume. 

Temple rarely looks to push the pace on offense, ranking just 235th in adjusted tempo. McKie recognizes his team’s poor shooting from all areas of the court, so his game plan typically involves grinding the game down to a halt and relying on his defense.

Houston is one of the slowest teams in the nation, ranking 348th in adjusted tempo. Don’t expect either squad to display any sense of urgency — similar to the first matchup.

Houston vs Temple betting trend to know

Temple is 4-0-1 to the Under in its last five games against a team with a winning straight-up record. Find more college basketball betting trends for Houston vs. Temple.

Houston vs Temple game info

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