Drake vs Indiana State Odds, Picks and Predictions: Sycamores Punch Ticket to March Madness

Two teams that would have to sweat out Selection Sunday will have the chance to win an automatic bid into the NCAA Tournament today as the Drake Bulldogs take on the Indiana State Sycamores in the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament Finals.

Indiana State finished first overall in the conference this season and has won six straight, culminating with a 94-72 victory over Northern Iowa on Saturday. The Bulldogs are riding their own four-game winning streak into the final after beating Bradley 72-67 in their semifinal.

This is close to a must-win game for both teams if they want to make it into the March Madness field. I break down the college basketball odds to see who has the edge in my free college basketball picks for Drake vs. Indiana State on March 10. 

Drake vs Indiana State best odds

Drake vs Indiana State picks and predictions

Indiana State has an excellent record and strong overall metrics but failed to secure a notable nonconference win this season. Drake has a weaker overall profile but does have a strong win over the Nevada Wolf Pack.

While the Sycamores are generally listed as just on the right side of the bubble given their seeding as the presumptive automatic qualifier, their position would be shaky with a loss. Meanwhile, Drake is already on the outside in most bracket projections. 

Both teams are averaging over 80 points per game on the season but aren’t particularly strong defensively, at least when comparing them to the kinds of teams they would face in the NCAA Tournament. Indiana State shoots the ball at an incredible 50.2% from the field and makes nearly 11 three-pointers per game. The Bulldogs aren't far behind, hitting 47.8% of their shots overall and 36.1% from downtown. 

Of the two teams, the Sycamores present more balance on offense in a couple of different ways. First, they have three different players scoring over 16 points per game, including Robbie Avila (17.5 ppg), Isaiah Swope (16.5 ppg), and Ryan Conwell (16.3 ppg). While all three can shoot from outside, the 6-foot-10 Avila — who has picked up the legendary “Cream Abdul-Jabbar” nickname thanks to his post game and old-school goggles — also gives Indiana State some meaningful size to challenge any opponent down low.

Drake also has four players averaging double digits this year, but there’s no doubt the show revolves around junior guard Tucker DeVries. Averaging 21.7 points a night, DeVries has become one of the Top-10 scorers in the country this year and has scored at least 17 points in each of his last 14 games.

So which of these approaches will win out on Sunday? If we look at how both teams have gotten through the Missouri Valley Tournament so far, it’s notable they’ve been playing a lower-scoring brand of basketball than they did in the regular season. This isn’t a shocking outcome, as we’ve all seen defenses tighten up at least slightly when games start being played with higher stakes. 

In these conditions, I have to like the team that has more options, as well as a reliable post option. As great as DeVries has been this year, he hasn’t hit 20 points yet in the tournament, and shot just 3 of 12 from the field against Bradley in the semifinal. With more places to turn for points when things get tight, I’m taking Indiana State to snag the automatic bid and cover.

My best bet: Indiana State -2.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Drake vs Indiana State same-game parlay

Indiana State -2.5

Under 151

Robbie Avila 15+ points

+345 at DraftKings

I like Indiana State to win this afternoon, but I’m not expecting the kind of shootout we might expect from looking at the profiles of these two teams. That’s why my same-game parlay also features the Under at 151 points.

Drake has been well below this number in both of its conference tournament games, while the Sycamores have been 1-1 against the total. I expect both teams to play a bit tight on a neutral court today and stay below the number.

With that in mind, I’m taking a relatively safe third leg, predicting that Avila will put up at least 15 points tonight. Avila has hit this total in six of hit last seven games, and scored at least 17 in each of his two meetings with Drake earlier this year.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Drake vs Indiana State spread and Over/Under analysis

Indiana State opened today’s game as a 2.5-point favorite. That’s still the consensus spread across the industry, with -110 odds being offered on both sides at most books. 

The Sycamores have been excellent against the spread this year, posting a 19-13 ATS record for bettors. Drake has also come out on top for backers, going 17-15 ATS. 

Today’s total opened at 150.5 points. There’s been virtually no movement, though a few books have taken the Over/Under up slightly to a flat 151. If you’re looking for a discounted line, several sites are offering -105 on the Under at the original 150.5 total. 

Indiana State has played above the number this year, with the Over holding an 18-14 advantage when it plays. Drake is closer to neutral, though the Over still has the slight 16-15-1 edge for the Bulldogs. 

Drake vs Indiana State betting trend to know

Indiana State is 3-1 ATS in its last four head-to-head meetings with Drake. Find more college basketball betting trends for Drake vs. Indiana State.

Drake vs Indiana State game info

Drake vs Indiana State key injuries

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