Caitlin Clark Props & Odds: Huskies Force Hawkeyes Star to Play Creator

Prop bet #1: Plunder the Under

What?! I’m betting the Under on Caitlin Clark’s points?!

Yes, this is right. 

I’m not saying Clark has a bad game by any means, but her points prop is getting a little out of hand. She could still go for 33 points and finish Under in this market. That’s nuts.

Clark’s point prop versus LSU was 31.5 O/U and the Tigers did a piss-poor job respecting Clark with even the simplest of defensive game plans. 

First, LSU left poor Haley Van Lith on an island. Now she’s a meme. Good work coach Mulkey. The feisty 5-foot-7 guard was undersized to begin with against the 6-foot Clark, who had torched HVL for 41 points in last year’s tournament when Van Lith was with Louisville. 

Van Lith rarely got a hand up nor did she have the height to challenge Clark on those outside shots. Worst of all, she got caught numerous times running under the Hawkeyes’ screens, giving Clark all the space in the world to square and fire. 

Louisiana State didn’t start hedging or helping out on screens with switches until late into the second half when Clark had already done her damage. 

She made two triples and knocked down four foul shots in the fourth quarter, but the “too little too late” adjustment did work as Clark missed multiple 3-pointers, turned the ball over, and was made to be more of a passer due to that pressure.

Connecticut has a better on-the-ball option in Paige Bueckers, who can at least match Clark’s size and have quick-footed defensive pests in KK Arnold and Ashlynn Shade to shadow star players. 

And you know Huskies' famed head coach Geno Auriemma watched that LSU-Iowa film saw those shortcomings, and has had a game plan for guarding Clark in his back pocket since he last faced Iowa’s guard as a freshman back in the 2021 Sweet 16.

As mentioned, this point prop is saturated with blind Over money. It’s already inflated and has climbed to as high as 34.5 at some books with the Over still juiced to -115. Clark has scored 35 points or more in 14 of her 37 games this season and her 41 versus LSU was just the second time she’s put up 35-plus in the past 11 games.

We also have to show this UConn defense respect. The Huskies allow just under 57 points per game with foes limited to an effective field goal rate of only 45.5%, including checking perimeter shooting to 28% success. 

So far in the tournament, Connecticut has stifled opponents to 33% shooting and will have its heels above the 3-point arc against Clark, in an effort to avoid those back-breaking triples.

Points prop: Caitlin Clark Under 34.5 Points (-115 at Caesars)

Prop bet #2: Passing the buck

As impressive as her scoring performance was against LSU, Clark made the Tigers' defense look dumb on plenty of passing plays. 

The Hawkeyes guard opened the game with three quick assists as Iowa set the tempo in transition and LSU dragged its feet on defense. And once the Tigers forced the Hawkeyes into a more halfcourt game, Clark had success with the drive-and-dish to open teammates. 

She was especially dangerous when LSU finally started switching and throwing more pressure at her on the perimeter, with Clark dishing out four of her 12 total dimes in the fourth quarter. I expect something similar from UConn’s defense on Friday.

For the tournament, Clark is averaging exactly 10 assists per game, which is one more than her regular-season rate, and exactly where we find her Final Four assist prop bouncing around. 

Once again, this Clark prop is puffed up after her 15 assists against Colorado and a dozen dimes against Louisiana State. Most shops are dealing 10.5 O/U with the Over ranging from -110 to +110. There are a couple of places at 9.5 O/U with the best deal on the Over at -122.

The game total for this showdown with UConn was as high as 163.5 points – not as big as 165.5 vs. LSU but still a game script that calls for plenty of points and opportunities for helpers.

Clark is going to play all 40 minutes and she’s going to touch the basketball on every position. Coach Auriemma’s defensive game plan will stick close on the perimeter, go over the top on screens, and switch quickly, forcing Clark to either pass the ball or put it on the ground.

Connecticut won’t let Caitlin Clark beat it and will test Iowa’s role players to step up and make shots. So far, those role players have been pretty good. That’s helped Clark record 10 or more dimes in 12 of her last 16 contests.

Assists prop: Over 9.5 assists (-122 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #3: Raiders of the Lost (three-point) Arc

Nine triples. God damn. 

Clark’s shooting show in the Elite Eight was just that: elite. But as we mentioned above, the Tigers' defense did very little to slow her down from distance until deep into the second half.

Clark’s 3-pointer prop for that matchup with LSU was as low as 4.5 O/U before the wave of Over money forced books to jump to 5.5 triples with the Under juiced heavily. 

After burning LSU from beyond the arc, sportsbooks are at 5.5 O/U 3-pointers made with the Over as hefty -148 against UConn on Friday night.

Before the 9-for-20 effort from outside versus LSU, Clark had topped out at five 3-pointers (vs. Colorado) in the first three games of the tournament and has knocked down six or more from distance just four times in the past 14 games going back to conference play.

In fact, before that “bombs away” game on Monday, Clark was a little chilly from 3-point land. She was a collective 11 for 34 in the first three rounds of the NCAA Tournament despite those contests coming at home.

Connecticut won’t give Clark the same clean looks LSU did. The Huskies are one of the top perimeter defenses in the land, holding foes to 28% shooting from deep. They did a good job slowing Syracuse’s sharpshooter Dyaisha Fair (the third-best 3-point shooter in the country) to 4 for 12 from distance (6 for 22 from the floor) in the Round of 32.

Now, is Clark capable of burying six or more from downtown? Absolutely. 

Do I want to dish out between -125 and -148 for her to do so? No, I do not.

This is a value buyback on a prop market drifting into orbit. You can find Under 5.5 ranging from -105 to +116. Gimmie that plus-money and get ready to hold your breath every time Clark spots up from deep.

Three-point prop: Under 5.5 3-pointers (+116 at FanDuel)