Butler vs St. John's Odds, Picks and Predictions: Bulldogs Can't Weather the Red Storm

Butler and St John's will meet in an intriguing Big East affair on Tuesday evening.

St John's has improved over the last month, and head coach Rick Pitino's imprints are suddenly starting to appear on this team. The Johnnies have won three of its previous four games, with its only loss coming in the final minute against No. 4 Connecticut.

Meanwhile, Butler has also been strong over the last few weeks. The Bulldogs have a refined offensive identity and had won seven straight before falling to Providence over the holidays. With both teams seemingly on the rise, we should be in store for a very entertaining matchup. 

What's the best bet in this one? Find out as we dissect the latest college basketball odds in our college basketball picks and predictions for Butler vs. St. John's on January 2.

Butler vs St. John's best odds

Butler vs St. John's picks and predictions

I'm backing one narrative here, which is St. John's being prepared out of the gate best to attack its schematic advantages. Rick Pitino has started integrating his morphing matchup zone defense into the Red Storm, and it's been brilliant. 

While Butler has been decent against the zone this season, they've yet to see one as effective as the one St John's will employ this season. The Storm's zone has posted some eye-popping numbers. In the 47 possessions — albeit a small sample — the Johnnies have held its opponents to 052 points per possession and 21.2% shooting. It's an elite defensive scheme, and being average against it isn't good enough.

For me, St John's defensive prowess is enough to put this play over the top. 

On the other side of the ball, the Johnnies enter this game ranking in the Top 30 percentile of basketball in spot-up shooting, featuring a lovely trio of shooters in Jordan Dingle, Glenn Taylor Jr., and Nahiem Allen. 

January is a month for elite coaches to make a move and for their teams to follow suit. I simply can't pass up the opportunity here to back Rick Pitino on a small spread to have his team ready to jump out of the gate.

Over the last two weeks, the Red Storm have been one of the best defensive teams in the country. Back the Johnnies early. 

My best bet: St. John's first half -3.5 (-106 at FanDuel)

Butler vs St. John's same-game parlay

St. John's 1H -3.5

Posh Alexander Under 4.5 assists

+275 at bet365

We're pairing our best bet with our favorite player prop on the board, which is Posh Alexander to finish with Under 4.5 assists.

This will be Alexander's first matchup against his former team, as he transferred from St John's to Butler over the summer. With that at the forefront, we'll see Alexander press a lot to prove himself against his former team.

Whether it's St John's defensive ability or a simple lack of volume, there's a high chance that Alexander goes Under this number. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Butler vs St. John's spread and Over/Under analysis

Our best bet is for St John's to cover the first half number, so naturally, we indeed lean toward them covering the whole game number of -6.5. Notably, the spread indicates a substantial disparity from the KenPom projected spread, which essentially envisions this as a game with a one-possession margin.

This is primarily due to the recent defensive improvements by the Johnnies not being accurately reflected in the models. St John's should win this game and cover. It has the better coach, a schematic advantage, and likely more talent. Give me the Under of 153.5 for a full unit.

If you've read our best bet section, this shouldn't be a surprise. Butler has a very efficient offense, but it will be slowed down today against a defensive player, amongst other qualities it has yet to see.

When it comes to the total, I'm leaning towards a low-scoring affair. In its last three games since integrating the matchup zone I've spoken about in-depth, St. John's has seen three straight games go Under.

Butler vs St. John's betting trend to know

Butler has hit the game total Under in 19 of its last 29 games (+8.05 Units / 25% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Butler vs. St. John's.

Butler vs St. John's game info

Butler vs St. John's key injuries

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