One team looking to finish a disappointing season strong and another looking to stop the recent bleeding will clash on Saturday afternoon in Tuscaloosa, as the Arkansas Razorbacks take on the Alabama Crimson Tide.
The Razorbacks have won three of their last five games and have a 6-11 record in the SEC with a 15-15 record overall. The Crimson Tide have lost consecutive games and are 12-5 in conference play with a 20-10 overall record. Will the Tide clinch a double bye in the SEC Tournament with a win and cover in the college basketball odds this week?
Here are our free college basketball picks and predictions for Arkansas vs. Alabama at Coleman Coliseum in Tuscaloosa, AL on Saturday, March 9.
Arkansas vs Alabama best odds
Arkansas vs Alabama picks and predictions
This is the first meeting of the season between these two teams, and it comes in the regular season finale. Arkansas has covered eight of the last 10 meetings between these two, but this version of the Razorbacks is very different. And not in a good way.
The Razorbacks were expected to be a very solid team this season with all their talented transfers being ranked 14 in the preseason polls. They also beat Duke in late November and looked like they were going to be a contender. However, everything fell apart at the turn of the new year and start of SEC play.
Arkansas lost five of their first six road games of the season before finally beating Texas A&M on February 20. A major issue is a combination of bad defense and poor rebounding. They allow 79.2 points per game, ranking 340th nationally, and retrieve only 48.9% of possible rebounds, which ranks 241st.
The good news is that Arkansas has gained a little momentum and played well last weekend in Lexington in a loss to the Wildcats scoring 102 points – but allowing 111. Alabama has lost consecutive games and three of their past four. They allowed 99.5 points per game in those four and rank 348th nationally in points allowed per game over the whole season (80.1).
Both teams play very quick as Arkansas ranks 34th in KenPom’s adjusted tempo and 29th in possessions per game. Alabama ranks 11th and 10th in those two categories, respectively. The Razorbacks rack up points by getting to the basket and drawing fouls. The Tide rack up points by getting up lots of threes and bringing in loads of offensive boards.
Each team’s strengths will play right into the other’s weaknesses and that should create a high-scoring game. Arkansas allowed 111 to Kentucky in their last road game and this one may not be too different. The Over is a strong play in the regular season finale for these two quick-tempo teams.
My best bet: Over 174.5 (-106 at FanDuel)
Arkansas vs Alabama same-game parlay
Alabama -15.5
Over 174.5
We will keep this very simple with our same game parlay picking just the total and the spread.
To add to our reasons for liking the total, Arkansas ranks third nationally in free throw attempts per game (26.5) and 79th in free throw percentage (74.5%). Meanwhile, the Tide ranks 33rd in free throw attempts (22.7) and eighth in free throw shooting percentage (79.0%). Both teams also commit a ton of fouls with the Razorbacks giving up 20.1 (343rd) and the Tide giving up 19.7 (335th).
Finally, we will add the Tide to cover this big spread. Some of the biggest issues that Alabama has had in recent losses is allowing a ton of offensive rebounds and threes. However, those are two very big weaknesses for the Razorbacks. Alabama will get back on track and go into the SEC Tournament with a big win.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Arkansas vs Alabama spread and Over/Under analysis
The Razorbacks are 11-19 against the spread this season and 3-5 ATS in road games. The Crimson Tide are 16-13-1 ATS overall but 10-4-1 ATS at home. They are also 8-2 ATS this season when favored by double digits. Alabama has done a great job at taking care of business when they are supposed to.
Arkansas will likely be without both Jalen Graham and Keyon Menifield, who each average over 16 minutes per game in conference play. That hit to their depth will be huge in a high-scoring game and a game expected to see lots of fouls.
The Over is an astounding 22-8 in Arkansas games this season, but only 4-4 in road games. The Over is also 22-8 in Alabama games and 10-5 in home games. There are just so many reasons for this game to near the 180-190 range as we mentioned throughout this piece.
Arkansas vs Alabama betting trend to know
Arkansas has hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 35 games and Alabama has hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 36 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Arkansas vs. Alabama.
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Arkansas vs Alabama game info
| Location: | Coleman Coliseum, Tuscaloosa, AL |
| Date: | Saturday, March 9, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Arkansas vs Alabama key injuries
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