Two teams on opposite ends of the current SEC spectrum will clash on Saturday afternoon in Baton Rouge, as the Alabama Crimson Tide take on the LSU Tigers.
The Crimson Tide have won 10 of their last 12 games and find themselves tied atop the SEC standings at 8-2 in conference play. The Tigers have lost a dreadful five of their last seven games and are 4-5 in SEC play. Will the Tide keep rolling and remain atop the SEC standings and cover the college basketball odds this week?
Here are our free college basketball picks and predictions for Alabama vs. LSU on Saturday, February 10.
Alabama vs LSU best odds
Alabama vs LSU picks and predictions
These two programs met just two weeks ago in Tuscaloosa, and it was a definite shootout. The Tide won at home 109-88 and shot a stellar 55.6% from the floor and 14/34 from downtown. Alabama covered the 13-point spread and the total sailed well Over the number of 163.
While the Tide do not frequent 100-point games, it wasn’t too far away from their season average of 89.5 points per game, which ranks third nationally. Their offense is ranked second in KenPom’s efficiency and 16th in adjusted tempo. They also rank 34th in possessions per game at 74.9.
The reason you saw such a shootout in their last matchup with the Tigers is that LSU has some issues on the defensive end. They allow 72.9 points per game (221st nationally) and like to play fast. LSU ranks 56th in adjusted tempo and 77th in possessions per contest (73.1).
Where the Tide will have a big advantage is from the 3-point line. Alabama already likes to let it fly from deep, with 37.9% of its points coming from downtown (22nd) and 29.7 3-point attempts per game (fifth). The Tigers, meanwhile, rank 331st in the country, allowing 25.4 3PA per game and allow their opponents to shoot 33.6% from deep (206th).
The player that will likely be the biggest beneficiary of this mismatch will be the same player that took advantage in the first matchup — Latrell Wrightsell Jr. He shot 5/10 from three in the last matchup and leads the team with 6.5 attempts per game in SEC play. The transfer from Cal State Fullerton should get plenty of looks here.
The Tigers have allowed nine different players in conference play to knock down at least three 3-pointers in a single game against them. One of those nine was Wrightsell, and he’s the most likely candidate to do so again in this second matchup. You can get his Over at plus money for three-pointers made and that is my best bet.
My best bet: Latrell Wrightsell Jr. Over 2.5 threes made (+125 at DraftKings)
Alabama vs LSU same-game parlay
Latrell Wrightsell Jr. Over 2.5 threes made
Jordan Wright Over 16.5 points
Over 166
Both teams attempt a ton of free throws. Alabama ranks 29th in free throw attempts and LSU ranks 49th. The Tide also commit a load of fouls with 19.2 per game (313th). The Tigers rank 74th in the country with 20.9% of their points coming from the charity stripe. The biggest benefactor from this will be Jordan Wright.
Wright averages 5.0 free throw attempts per game and shoots 81.1% from the stripe. He’s also second on the team in 3-point attempts. Wright scored only 10 points in the last matchup, but not for lack of opportunity. He’ll get back on track in the home matchup and make more than 33% of his shots and 20% of his threes.
Finally, we’ll finish this up with the Over. It’s a high number, but similar to the last game that finished 34 points Over the total. With both teams having a quick tempo and getting up plenty of shots. It would take quite the bad shooting game from these two teams to not hit this Over.
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Alabama vs LSU spread and Over/Under analysis
These two teams have opposite records against the spread the season. The Tide are 13-9-1 ATS and the Tigers are 9-13 ATS. LSU has not been great at home either with a 5-7 ATS record. The SEC has been rough for the Tigers, as they only have two covers as underdogs.
‘Bama isn’t great on the road — 3-3 ATS and straight up — but has handled business as favorites in conference play. The Tide are 5-1-1 ATS in conference play as favorites, and 2-1 ATS as road favorites. They also won as a 1-point favorite at Mississippi State. They should be able to handle business again in conference play.
The total has lots of reasons to love the Over besides just the tempo. Bama allows a plethora of offensive boards with 11.4 per game (303rd). The Tigers also allow 11.5 per game (307th). So even if we get a bad shooting night, the teams should be able to get second-chance opportunities that typically lead to easy baskets. The Over is a solid play in this matchup.
Alabama vs LSU betting trend to know
Alabama has hit the Over in 21 of its last 36 games and LSU has hit the Over in 18 of its last 31 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Alabama vs. LSU.
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Alabama vs LSU game info
| Location: | Pete Maravich Assembly Center, Baton Rouge, LA |
| Date: | Saturday, February 10, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
Alabama vs LSU key injuries
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