The Houston Rockets are on the heels of the Golden State Warriors in the Western Conference standings and just so happen to be hosting the Dubs inside Toyota Center tonight.
Houston is 11th in the West and three game backs of Golden State for the No. 10 spot and the final ticket to the Play-In Tournament. The Rockets have stumbled with two straight losses and the NBA odds have them installed as short home underdogs Thursday.
The Warriors are peaking at a perfect time, bringing a five-game winning streak (4-1 ATS) to Houston, pulling them a game back of the L.A. Lakers for the No. 9 seed and three and a half game behind New Orleans in the coveted No. 8 spot.
I run down the spread and Over/Under total for this key Western Conference clash and give my best free NBA picks and predictions for Warriors at Rockets on April 4.
Warriors vs Rockets predictions
My best bet: Jalen Green Under 26.5 points (-105 at Caesars)
Tonight’s tilt between the Rockets and Warriors will have “playoff-like” vibes, as these Western Conference clubs push for postseason plans.
It would seem Golden State is already in postseason mode, considering how stingy its defense has been during this five-game winning streak. The Dubs have locked four of their last five foes to 100 points or less.
The Warriors will focus that defensive energy on stopping Rockets star Jalen Green. The third-year guard is second on the team in scoring with just over 20 points per game and has been on a tear during Houston’s turnaround the past month, scoring almost 28 a night throughout March and putting up 26 points in the loss at Minnesota on Tuesday.
Green’s scoring surge has seen him top his points prop total in eight of his last 10 outings despite those Over/Under numbers climbing as high as 27.5 O/U. Tonight’s point total sits at 26.5 points with the Over priced as high as -130 at some sportsbooks.
Buckets are going to be hard to come by for Green. Golden State, which is playing stellar defense already, leans into its D away from home. The Warriors ranked No. 7 in advanced defensive rating as a visitor – a significant increase in intensity compared to sitting No. 22 in that same advanced metric at home.
On top of that, Green has been verbally sparring with the Warriors — primarily Draymond Green — through the media over the past few weeks as the playoff race tightens. The veteran-heavy Dubs are always looking for added motivation to shut down (or shut up) an opponent.
In the last meeting with the Warriors back on November 20, Green scored 16 points and played only 23 minutes as head coach Ime Udoka sat him in the fourth quarter in favor of Aaron Holiday, due to a lack of chemistry when Green was on the floor. The game before that, Green went 8-for-20 from the field (1-for-5 on 3-pointers) and finished with 21 points over 38 minutes of floor time.
Player projections for Thursday night are tipping their caps to the Warriors defense, with forecasts for Green calling for between 21 and 23 points, with number at 22.5 points. That’s well below his scoring prop of 26.5 points O/U.
Warriors vs Rockets same-game parlay
Jalen Green Under 27.5 points
Under 227.5
Dillon Brooks Over 9.5 points
Green faces a Dubs defense in prime postseason form. Player projection are as short as 21 points from him tonight.
The Warriors’ defense has checked four of the last five foes to 100 points or less and they’re 15-22 O/U on the road.
Dillon Brooks has bad blood with the Warriors (and pretty much everyone else) but his forecasts are calling for as many 15 points tonight.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Warriors vs Rockets odds and trends
Warriors vs Rockets live odds
Warriors vs Rockets opening odds
- Spread: Golden State -4 (-110) | Houston +4 (-110)
- Moneyline: Golden State -180 | Houston +150
- Over/Under: Over 228 (-110) | Under 228 (-110)
Warriors vs Rockets spread and Over/Under analysis
• With Golden State bringing momentum into this matchups, books opened the Dubs as big as 4.5-point road favorites. That line slimmed to as low as -3.5 with Warriors’ standout forward Jonathan Kuminga listed as questionable (knee). However, it appears Kuminga is going to suit up and the spread is up to -4.
• Houston followed an 11-game winning streak with back-to-back losses to Dallas and Minnesota and dropped the first two meetings with the Warriors earlier this season (1-1 ATS). The Rockets are the best home bet in the NBA at 26-11-1 ATS inside the Toyota Center.
• Golden State is picking up steam on a five-game run which followed an inconsistent stretch through most of March. Defense has been the biggest catalyst, with the Warriors locking down foes to an average of only 99 points during this streak. They just so happen to be the best road bet in the NBA at 25-12 ATS as visitors.
• The total for tonight’s game opened at 228 points and has since dropped to as low as 226 with money showing up on the Under. Golden State is 15-22 O/U on the road and has stayed below the closing number in four of those five wins. Houston boasts a 10-4 O/U mark in its last 14 outings and is 18-18-2 O/U at home.
• Covers Consensus data shows 59% of picking laying the points with the Warriors, as of Thursday morning. As for the total, consensus says 64% of picks are backing the Over in Houston tonight.
Warriors vs Rockets trend
Golden State has played Under in four of the last five games and is 15-22 O/U on the road this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Rockets.
Warriors vs Rockets game info
| Location: | Toyota Center, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Thursday, April 4, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Space City Home Network, NBC Sports Bay Area |
Not intended for use in MA.
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