Best Warriors vs Kings Player Props Today: Fox Shows Clutch Time Genes

Prop bet #1: Fox rises to the occasion

De’Aaron Fox is an underrated clutch player. In 35 games of clutch minutes this season, Fox averaged 3.5 points in the final five minutes, No. 7 of players with a minimum of 30 such clutch games.

Malik Monk would have knocked Fox down a peg in that ranking, but he missed too many games. Monk also averaged 3.5 points in 28 such games. But without Monk available, Fox’s workload should increase.

And all of tonight’s single-elimination game will feel like clutch minutes. That thought alone escalates faith in Fox’s points.

Now add in two other realities: He scored 39, 29, and 29 points in three games against the Golden State Warriors this season, shooting 50% from the field and 41.7% from deep. Fox averaged 38 minutes per game to rack up those numbers.

Fox averaged 35.7 minutes per game before Monk was injured. He has averaged 37.5 minutes in nine games since then. A similar jump would have been expected tonight, one that would put Fox at 40 minutes when remembering he usually plays more against Golden State, to begin with. And in a do-or-die game, Fox’s workload should rise even beyond that.

De’Aaron Fox might play 45 minutes tonight with a clutch-time attitude.

De’Aaron Fox prop: Over 28.5 points (-116 at BetRivers)

Prop bet #2: Kuminga feasts

Since Malik Monk’s injury, joining Kevin Huerter on Sacramento’s injured list, the Sacramento Kings’ rotation has shrunk to seven players. If Trey Lyles does not find a role against Golden State tonight, it could effectively become six players.

Golden State’s rotation has been nine players deep since March 30, the same timeline as the Sacramento comparison and one that is pertinent given how do-or-die that stretch was for the Warriors, one game up on the Rockets for this final Play-In spot when it began and playing for Play-In Tournament positioning throughout the last two weeks.

Some of those minutes were boosted by Jonathan Kuminga missing five of Golden State’s last nine games due to a tailbone injury. But either way, the Warriors are deeper than the Kings, and Kuminga is one of the fastest Warriors.

Golden State should push the pace tonight to wear out De’Aaron Fox as much as possible before the fourth quarter. Kuminga is ideally suited to help that cause, and capitalizing on a few transition opportunities will buoy Kuminga’s return.

Jonathan Kuminga prop: Over 14.5 points (+102 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Trey's the odd man out

The Kings need everything they can get tonight from Fox and Domantas Sabonis. The Warriors are made for moments like this, even if they are aging. This is when experience and mettle most show themselves.

Relying on Sabonis for as much as possible will lessen Trey Lyles’s already minimal role. The 6-foot-9 forward spreads the floor for Sacramento, taking 4.3 threes per game since Monk’s injury.

Golden State has the defenders to take away those looks. Draymond Green and Trayce Jackson-Davis can keep up with Lyles along the perimeter. More than cutting into his shots, that defense should cut into Lyles’s minutes.

The Kings will be up against it if Lyles plays fewer than 20 minutes, let alone as few as 15. But leaning on Sabonis, Harrison Barnes and a fleet of guards will be Sacramento’s best offense. Risking everything with them tonight will be the Kings’ best chance at keeping its season alive.

Trey Lyles prop: Under 6.5 points (-111 at FanDuel)