Best NBA Player Props Today: Porter Can't Find the Range

Prop bet #1: Paolo Banchero Under 7.5 rebounds

The Magic's Paolo Banchero had some erratic scoring lines against the Cavaliers this season. In the first game, he torched Cleveland for 42 points, in the next two games he had solid performances of 20 and 18 points on 42.9% shooting, and in the final meeting he was held to just 12 points on 4-15 shooting.

However, one common thread was that he consistently failed to impress on the glass. Banchero was held to just three rebounds in two of those meetings while pulling down a modest six boards in another. Despite his size, Banchero hasn't been a force on the boards.

He averaged a modest 6.9 rebounds per game during the regular season, and while he snagged 26 boards in the final two games, he was still held below 7.5 rebounds in 20 of 32 contests since the start of February. He won't find it easy to get rebounds against a Cavs frontcourt featuring Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley, and since both of these teams prefer a slow tempo, there should be fewer available rebounds.

Paolo Banchero prop: Under 7.5 rebounds (-120 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: Tobias Harris Under 13.5 points

The Philadelphia 76ers had some hideous offensive performances against the New York Knicks during the regular season, failing to crack the 100-point plateau in all four meetings and averaging just 85.0 ppg.

To be fair, All-NBA center Joel Embiid missed three of those contests, but with the All-NBA center out of the lineup, another scoring option like Tobias Harris should have seen his field goal attempts rise. Instead, Harris disappeared, being held to fewer than 12 points in all four of those contests while averaging a pathetic 6.3 ppg on 31.4% shooting. 

The Knicks play at the slowest tempo in the league, and that, combined with a Top-10 defense, has led to them allowing just 105.3 ppg at Madison Square Garden — the third-lowest number in the league. Embiid is listed as questionable, but I expect him to suit up, and he and Tyrese Maxey should carry the heavy lifting for this Sixers offense.

Don't be surprised if Harris falls to fifth on the scoring option pecking order, with Kelly Oubre Jr. and Buddy Hield leapfrogging him in shot attempts. Fade Harris on his points in what has been a nightmare matchup for him this season.

Tobias Harris prop: Under 13.5 points (-130 at BetMGM)

Prop bet #3: Michael Porter Jr. Under 17.5 points

Michael Porter Jr. was productive against the Lakers during the regular season, but he has a history of seeing his production drop off in the postseason. That makes plenty of sense when you consider that Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray tend to take on an even greater offensive burden in games that matter.

While Porter averaged 17.4 points and 13.2 field goal attempts per game during the regular season last year, those numbers dipped to 13.4 ppg and 11.7 FGA per game during the playoffs. In the Western Conference finals against the Lakers, he put up a modest 15.0 ppg on 40.8% shooting.

Porter also enters the postseason in a bit of a slump. He was held to 15 or fewer points in eight of his final 12 games in the regular season, averaging 14.9 ppg during that span. I'd bet the Under on Porter's points, even without considering his heavy personal issues at the moment.

Not only did his brother Jontay Porter get a lifetime ban from the league two days ago, but another brother was sentenced to six years in prison for a DUI crash yesterday. That's the sort of thing that would weigh heavily on anybody's mind and make it tough to focus.

Michael Porter Jr. prop: Under 17.5 points (-110 at bet365)