Best NBA Player Props Today: Houston Duo Dimes Against OKC Defense

Prop bet #1: Seeing Green

Jalen Green has been on an absolute heater in his last six games, averaging 33.2 points per game over that stretch. We've seen his scoring prop jump from 19.5 to 27.5 over that span but it's important to point out that this has also coincided with Alperen Sengun's injury. His scoring is impressive, but I'm going after his assist prop on Wednesday. Let me explain why.

The points are an attention grabber, but the minutes also catch my eye. He's playing 36.5 minutes per game during this stretch, five more than he averages on the season.

That should be the case again against the Oklahoma City Thunder? This isn't a lost season for the Houston Rockets, and they have nothing to play for; they're right on the Warriors' heels for the final play-in spot.

The Rockets have played the Wizards twice, the Jazz, and the Trail Blazers over their last six games. What I see are multiple teams that don't possess a defense strong enough to force him to pass while on this heater. That won't be the case on Wednesday.

He's projected to have 3.9 assists tonight which means we can price the Over 3.5 at -111, but it's available at FanDuel at +140. You will see some 2.5 (-180) floating around in the market as well. With this projection, your expected value is more than double by taking on the 3.5 (+140).

Jalen Green prop: Over 3.5 assists (+140 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #2: Dimes for Dillon

In my Green prop, I talked about how the Rockets are suddenly in the thick of the play-in race and how they have much to play for as the season winds down. This impacts Green, but it also affects his teammates, and it's also a reason why I'm going after Dillon Brooks' assist prop as well.

Projecting minutes is always a major key when it comes to betting on player props and it's the defensive assignment that Brooks will have against MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander that should cause him to see elevated minutes. 

Brooks has played against OKC three times this season and is averaging four potential assists per game in those matchups. That's well above his season average of 3.1 per game, and it's a big number when you consider this prop is trading at 1.5 (+130).

He's projected to have 1.9 assists on Wednesday against the Thunder, which means we can price the Over 1.5 assists at -126. It's available at bet365 at +130, giving us a positive expected value of 28%.

Dillon Brooks prop: Over 1.5 assists (+130 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Deandre deals

Everyone's favorite bet: a Deandre Ayton assist prop. Let's hope he plays on Wednesday because we're getting a really good number for the Over for his prop, and he's missed the last couple of games with an elbow injury. 

Ayton will be taking on the Atlanta Hawks on Wednesday, whom he just played against on March 13. In that matchup, He dropped 33 points and 19 rebounds in 41 minutes and shot 15-for-20 from the field. The Trail Blazers also won this game 106-102.

There's a lot to unpack here, but what stands out is the 41 minutes, the efficiency of 15-20 from the field, and the fact that the Trail Blazers won. I know it doesn't feel like the Hawks still have something to play for, but they can easily make the Play-In Tournament if they continue to win.

If I'm Quin Snyder, you can't let Ayton just cook Clint Capela and Bruno Fernando in the high post without sending any help; that's what happened last time they played. I expect the Hawks to guard him differently, which should also open up more potential assists. He can also beat this defense on the offensive glass, which could create some potential assists following the offensive board and a kick out to shooters.

He's projected to have 1.9 assists on Wednesday against the Hawks, which means we can price the Over 1.5 assists at -122, but it's available at bet365 at +140. This is a nice edge on Ayton; let's just hope he plays and this bet doesn't get voided.

Deandre Ayton prop: Over 1.5 assists (+140 at bet365)