Magic vs Cavaliers NBA Player Props Today: Banchero Tries to Slash Spida's Web

Prop bet #1: Points for Paolo

Paolo Banchero has found another level in these playoffs. The second-year forward has established himself as not only the Orlando Magic’s future but also their present.

He has scored more than 25 points in three of his last four games and is averaging 25.2 points in this series. Two factors add confidence to this bet beyond those raw numbers.

First of all, Banchero has been getting his shots. Only in Game 4 — when Franz Wagner went 13 of 17 from the field to spark the Magic offense, compared to his 5.6 of 14.2 averages in the series’ other five games — did Banchero take fewer than 17 shots. In four of the last five games, he has taken at least 20, averaging 22.5 field-goal attempts per game. This Game 7 likely will slow down and have fewer possessions, simply because of human nature, but Banchero will still get plenty of looks.

Secondly, he has gotten to the line in the last two games, going 7-for-8 in Game 5 and then 7-for-10 in Game 6. If he continues that, it sets a high floor for his individual production.

Paolo Banchero prop: Over 24.5 points(-105 at Pinnacle)

Prop bet #2: Moderated Mitchell

There may be an instinct to trust Cleveland Cavaliers guard Donovan Mitchell after his masterful 50-point performance in Game 6 but realize he went 22-for-36 from the field. That is not a criticism of how many shots Mitchell took but rather an acknowledgment that he needed that volume because he went only 3 of 9 from deep and 3 of 6 from the free-throw line.

It was the first time Mitchell cleared this points prop since Game 1, and even then, he scored “only” 30 points in the opener, slipping by this number by just a bucket.

Mitchell has not shot well from deep in this first-round matchup, just 11 of 44 through six games and never hitting better than his 3-for-8 showing from Game 1. He also has not been getting to the free-throw line often. The veteran guard went 9-for-10 at the stripe in Game 5 but has otherwise averaged just 4.8 free throws per game.

For context, Mitchell averaged 26.6 points this season in part because he was making 3.3 threes per game on 36.8% shooting and he got to the line 5.8 times per game. He can still reach 29 points without those habits, but it then depends on volume. Mitchell may tone that back this afternoon in favor of a more balanced attack, particularly given how role players typically fare better at home.

Donovan Mitchell prop: Under 28.5 points (+102 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Mobley picks up slack

Jarrett Allen may or may not play with a rib injury. That status remains utterly unclear.

His absence would spike Evan Mobley’s player props while ruling Allen in would obviously depress them. What number would Mobley clear regardless of Allen’s status?

With Allen in, Mobley could fall short of the 10 rebounds he would need to clear that prop. He did in Game 2, snagging only seven rebounds in 32 minutes.

No matter Allen’s availability, though, Mobley should clear his points prop of 13.5. Simply enough, look at how he has played at home in this series, averaging 15.7 points and topping this number in all three games by shooting 50% from the field.

Why is the points prop so low, then? Partly because Mobley has struggled on the road, averaging nine points in those three road games by shooting 40.7% from the field.

Role players shine brighter at home. Mobley already has in this series, and he should again whether or not Allen takes the court.

Evan Mobley prop: Over 13.5 points (+100 at DraftKings)