NBA Picks

Andrew Nembhard's offensive game is very limited, and his jump shot is incredibly inconsistent. He is in the game for defense, but if his defense isn't slowing down Jalen Brunson, would I be shocked if Rick Carlisle opts for more offense? Another factor to consider here with Nembhard and his minutes is that while he's the primary defender on Brunson, Brunson is also elite at drawing fouls. Nembhard was in foul trouble in Game 1, and that could be a common theme in the series. If Nembhard finds himself in foul trouble once again, that would also decrease his minutes. Nembhard is projected to score 10.2 points on Wednesday against the Knicks.

The Knicks don't have a point of attack defender who can lock up Haliburton even if he is a step slower with the back injury. Donte DiVincenzo is the primary defender on Haliburton, and he is an average defender at best. The strength of the Knicks' defense is on the interior and on the wings; it's why Tyrese Maxey had such big games against them as well. The Knicks struggle to contain a fast, shifty point guard. Haliburton's assists prop will also receive a slight boost on Wednesday as Mitchell Robinson is out for injury management. With Robinson out, it gives the Knicks one less rim protector who could disrupt an assists prop. Haliburton is projected to have 10.1 assists on Wednesday against the Knicks.

One aspect I love about Miles McBride's points prop is that it has been adjusted to 5.5 from 9.5, where it was trading just a couple of games ago against the 76ers. With the total sitting at 5.5, you at least open the door to two three-pointers pushing you over the number, which is definitely in play as McBride is a shooter. And you know what they say: role players always shoot it better at home in the playoffs, which is also another reason why I believe Thibodeau could give him slightly more than the 11 minutes we saw in Game 1. McBride is projected to score 7.2 points on Wednesday against the Pacers.

In Game 1, Brunson had 6 assists despite the Knicks shooting 47.8% from deep. Opponents shot 34.9% from deep against the Pacers after the All-Star Break, the 27th-lowest percentage in the NBA, and they took just 33.1% of their field goals from deep, the lowest rate in the NBA. New York came in at 28% on Monday. Indiana does not give up looks from deep, something the Knicks relied on in the regular season and an area ripe for assists. Without those chances, Brunson will not rack up assists before crunch time, and when the game is close late, he handles things himself.

Haliburton taking only one two-point shot in Game 1 should worry Indiana. 51% of his regular-season shots came from deep. Shifting that to almost entirely 3-pointers won’t work out for Haliburton. In the first round, Haliburton took 63.5% of his shots from deep. Thus, Haliburton averaged 16 points in the first round. The Knicks’ defense fared even better taking away those drives on Monday, and it took them away in a replicable fashion. The length and relentlessness of New York’s perimeter defenders — primarily Josh Hart and OG Anunoby — will continue to pester Haliburton’s attempts to penetrate.

The Indiana Pacers have multiple holes in their defense that the Knicks can exploit, and they don't need to be 100% dependent on Jalen Brunson scoring and creating all of their offense. If they were playing the Minnesota Timberwolves, you would be looking to lean on Brunson because the other players on the Knicks would be struggling to generate offense, but that is not the case against the Pacers. Whether it's Donte DiVincenzo, OG Anunoby, Josh Hart, or even Isaiah Hartenstein on the interior, the Knicks have other advantages in this series. Scoring won't be the issue for the Knicks against the Pacers, and while they continue to give Brunson elevated minutes, they should at the very least look to lighten his workload and not have him completely carry the offense. Brunson is projected to score 35.3 points on Wednesday against the Pacers.