The NBA playoffs have taken shape. Well, at least the participants have. It's astounding how few seeds are secured as we enter the final two games of the season. Only the top seed and the lesser play-in berths are locked in the Eastern Conference, making for some wild NBA odds this weekend.
The Top 5 in the Western Conference could be in flux if chaos breaks loose, but it's most likely we get to Monday with:
1) Denver Nuggets
2) Minnesota Timberwolves
3) Oklahoma City Thunder
4) Los Angeles Clippers
5) Dallas Mavericks
Beyond that, who knows. Seeds No. 2 to 8 in the Eastern Conference are uncertain, and no one has any idea who will play in which Play-In Tournament game out West.
Do not let anyone tell you there's no drama in this closing weekend of the regular season. You just have to know where to look.
Competitive games of note this weekend
No disrespect to Friday’s Houston Rockets vs. Portland Trail Blazers game — actually, disrespect to that game, with the Rockets falling to the Utah Jazz last night to snap Utah’s 13-game losing streak and now quite possibly ripe to give Portland just its third win its last 15 games — plenty of games this weekend will have no stakes. Others should be walkovers.
Now note, someone will lose a game they absolutely should not. That is the comedy of sports. Trying to figure out who would be a psychological study beyond Freud’s reach. But someone will.
For your viewing convenience, though, let’s rattle through which games should be competitive and meaningful to both sides, that latter thought excluding tonight’s Atlanta Hawks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves game since the Hawks are secured in the Eastern 10-seed and thus should be rather ambivalent amid Karl-Anthony Towns’ return.
Clinch scenarios for Friday, April 12 ⬇️
— NBA Communications (@NBAPR) April 12, 2024
All 30 @NBA teams are in action tonight! ➡️ https://t.co/d0dzFUIid4 pic.twitter.com/RyanFzpFz6
FRIDAY
Magic vs. 76ers: With a win, the Philadelphia 76ers should escape the Play-In Tournament. The Orlando Magic are just one game up on the 76ers and face a stiffer test on Sunday than Philadelphia’s meeting with the Brooklyn Nets.
Pacers vs. Cavaliers: Similarly, an Indiana Pacers win would jump them over the Cleveland Cavaliers in the East, possibly grabbing home-court advantage in the first round.
Bucks vs. Thunder: The Milwaukee Bucks have to pretend to worry about falling to No. 3 in the East, though that may be preferable as long as the 76ers are looming at No. 7. That has become the greatest balancing act in the league, no one wants to play Philadelphia, but no one knows where the 76ers will end up in the standings. The Bucks could incur that worry by falling to No. 3. Meanwhile, the Oklahoma City Thunder are hoping to leap the Timberwolves for No. 2 in the West.
Pelicans vs. Warriors: The Golden State Warriors may be able to get past the Los Angeles Lakers to host the first play-in game, while the New Orleans Pelicans will be worn out on the second night of a back-to-back but trying to avoid the Play-In Tournament to give Brandon Ingram as much recovery time as possible. A single loss could knock New Orleans into a tie with Phoenix, and the Suns hold that head-to-head tiebreaker.
Suns vs. Kings: Yes, the Sacramento Kings will also be on the second night of a back-to-back, because the NBA cares about the quantity of competitions far more than the quality of them. If the Kings beat the Phoenix Suns, Sacramento will be in strong position to face Phoenix again next week in a play-in game. However, if the Kings lose for the second time in two nights, they could find themselves on the road in the lesser play-in game. And they are 5.5-point underdogs in part because the Suns have hopes of escaping the Play-In Tournament altogether.
With just three days of games left in the @NBA regular season, 19 teams in the Playoffs and Play-In (out of 20) have yet to clinch their seed number.
— NBA Communications (@NBAPR) April 11, 2024
Check out all of the seeding possibilities entering tonight's action ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/Vf6xaDc7kU
SUNDAY
Things may change in some of these games by Sunday afternoon. But heading into the weekend, the stakes are …
Bucks vs. Magic: Win one game, Orlando. Win one game to secure the Southeast Division and thus a likely tiebreaker over Cleveland or Indiana. That is your path to home-court advantage in the first round, though you will need the Cavs to lose one game, as well. Milwaukee’s decision-making may hinge on where Philadelphia stands after Friday night.
Lakers vs. Pelicans: New Orleans may be beyond caring come Sunday, a Suns loss on Friday possibly giving the Pelicans some cushion. There is no version of this weekend in which the Lakers can ease up, though, trying to slip out of the lesser play-in at best and worrying about being on the road for two play-in games at worst.
Suns vs. Timberwolves: Minnesota may be locked into its seed by then, especially with the Nuggets facing the Grizzlies. But the Suns will almost certainly still be playing for play-in seeding, or lack thereof.
Mavericks vs. Thunder: If the Dallas Mavericks win out and the Los Angeles Clippers lose out, they could flip the 4 and 5 spots. But the Clippers play Utah on Friday, so assume Dallas will no longer care on Sunday. Oklahoma City will be seeking a win to possibly jump Minnesota.
Tonight's NBA best bets
Charlotte Hornets vs Boston Celtics
The Boston Celtics haven't played a meaningful game in weeks, and it's beginning to show. Now on the second night of a back-to-back, the Celtics will be even more ambivalent than usual.
It's not only been the players. The coaching staff has admitted to trying things late in games recently that do not give Boston its best chance to win, experimenting before the playoffs.
Taking the Charlotte Hornets at +7.5 (-110 at FanDuel) may make sense, but there is value in this moneyline. The Celtics have proven that with two blowout losses this week.
Best bet: Hornets moneyline (+245 at BetRivers)
Houston Rockets vs. Portland Trail Blazers
This is the time of year to bet on NBA variance. The Rockets lost to the equivalent of the Salt Lake City Stars last night, Utah sidelining just about every player you have heard of. Houston is now on the second night of a back-to-back and is still deflated from botching its chance of slipping into the postseason.
Best bet: Trail Blazers moneyline (+205 at Caesars)
NBA Trends: Joel Embiid’s return
Joel Embiid has returned to play four of Philadelphia’s last five games. On Tuesday, he logged 36 minutes, beginning to look like a full-time player again, even if that was against just the Pistons.
By no coincidence, the 76ers have won their last five games. Actually, their last six.
The sample size is small and significant portions of the league are no longer thoroughly trying, but Philadelphia’s April net rating ranks No. 3 in the NBA and No. 1 in the East. Embiid’s return cannot be overstated and it is a genuine worry for teams jockeying for position atop the Eastern Conference.
J😱EL EMBIID. pic.twitter.com/GV07cdMdUP
— Philadelphia 76ers (@sixers) April 10, 2024
Raising the ceiling: Embiid Threatens …
With Giannis Antetokounmpo now hobbled by a calf injury, would the Bucks have any hope against the revived 76ers? Not if Giannis isn't healthy.
Milwaukee’s net rating falls by 3.1 points without Antetokounmpo this season, its defensive rating falling by 5.4 points alone. The Bucks should worry, particularly since the whole world has seen how unimpressive the Doc Rivers Era has been.
Philadelphia’s ceiling may be soaring, as every week it can hang around will only bode well for Embiid’s improvement.
Nick Nurse on Joel Embiid’s conditioning:
— Sam DiGiovanni (@BySamDiGiovanni) April 10, 2024
“I think he’s still got some work to do on it. But we’re getting there. We’re just slowly inching him up the ladder here, just a little bit more each game.”
Embiid played just under 36 minutes tonight, the most since his return pic.twitter.com/sjvalOTW4k
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NBA futures update: Philadelphia at +1,000
This value will not exist much longer. The 76ers are available at +1,000 to win the Eastern Conference at DraftKings, and the combination of Embiid’s return and Antetokounmpo’s injury could turn the first round of the playoffs on their head.
Moneyline underdogs picks
This weekly bit should be disregarded to end the regular season. It's impossible to know who will take the court on Sunday. Sportsbooks will be making up lines as they go.
Remember that part and find the variance. If the Celtics sit everyone of note against the Washington Wizards, the line may overcorrect. It's not like the Wizards have anything to care about, either. Just to provide one example.
