Lakers vs Bucks Picks and Predictions: Fit for a King

The stars will be out early tonight when LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers visit Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks.

The perennial MVP candidates have formed a close friendship over the years, with LeBron selecting the Greek Freak first in each of the last two NBA All-Star games. Their connection has been undeniable, but that tight knit bond will be challenged this evening as these two Goliaths go toe-to-toe to secure a win for their respective squads.

Will the Bucks stop here or will Giannis power Milwaukee to its fourth win in a row? Find out in our Lakers vs. Bucks NBA picks and predictions for Friday, December 2.

Lakers vs Bucks best odds

Lakers vs Bucks picks and predictions

To paraphrase Mark Twain, "Rumors of LeBron James’ demise have been greatly exaggerated."

Written off by many pundits after suffering an adductor strain on November 9, James has looked every bit like a four-time MVP since returning to the court. The 37-year-old superstar erupted for 39 points in 35 minutes against the San Antonio Spurs on November 26, and is averaging 28 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 4.8 assists since rejoining the Lakers.

The most impressive facet of James’ game over the past week has been his improved 3-point stroke. The King connected on 7 of his 12 3-point attempts against the Spurs and shot 6-for-8 from deep against the Portland Trail Blazers on Wednesday night. He’s actively looking for his shot and is making opponents pay for slipping under screens.

James’ marksmanship is one reason to believe he’ll go Over 26.5 points tonight. Another is his success against the Bucks historically. The 18-time All-Star has averaged 28.7 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 7.1 assists in 60 career games against Milwaukee. That’s hardly a small sample size and he’s done well against Giannis & Co. recently as well, scoring 27 points on 11 of 19 shooting in his lone meeting against the Bucks in 2021-22.

Another reason to back LeBron tonight is the fact the Lakers may be shorthanded. Los Angeles could be without Lonnie Walker, who was a late scratch against the Trail Blazers due to a foot issue. The 6-foot-4 guard is the team’s third-leading scorer, and someone will have to step up this evening to replace his 16.6 points. That someone is likely to be James. LeBron scored 30 points in Walker’s first absence on November 9 and dropped in 31 points on Wednesday as Walker sat on the sidelines.

LeBron has made a career of lifting his team when they need him the most, and the Lakers surely need everything he can deliver tonight against the vastly superior Bucks. Take the Over and enjoy the show.

My best bet: LeBron James Over 26.5 points (-110)

Lakers vs Bucks spread analysis

Much has been made of Los Angeles’ recent stretch of six wins in their last eight games, but a closer examination reveals the Lakers have been fattening their record on the league’s bottom dwellers. Four of those victories came against the Detroit Pistons and San Antonio Spurs, two teams that are a combined 12-34, and a fifth came against a Portland Trail Blazers team playing on the second night of a back-to-back without Damian Lillard.

In fact, L.A. had just two wins against teams playing above .500 in November, and that includes a November 2 victory over the New Orleans Pelicans, who were just 4-3 at the time.

Los Angeles’ inability to beat top teams is an especially big problem this evening against a 15-5 Bucks squad with the second-best winning percentage in the league. Unlike the Lakers, Milwaukee has vanquished legitimate playoff contenders like the Philadelphia 76ers, Cleveland Cavaliers, and Atlanta Hawks. And it's done so while dealing with injuries to key contributors like Khris Middleton, Pat Connaughton, and Joe Ingles, who has yet to suit up this season while he recovers from an ACL injury.

The Bucks have been especially good at home, where they’re 11-2 and score 9.5 more points per game while limiting opponents to 2.5 fewer points.

That’s in stark contrast to the Lakers, who are just 2-6 on the road and score 5.3 fewer points while conceding 6.2 more points to opponents. That’s a HUGE differential, and it can’t be explained away by home cooking alone.

Those factors help explain why Milwaukee opened as sizeable 8-point favorites, but the real reason bettors should feel bullish about the Bucks is their defense. Mike Budenholzer’s squad has the league’s top defensive rating and ranks in the Top 3 in defensive rebounding percentage, blocks, and opponent points in the paint.

Much of the credit goes to NBA Defensive Player of the Year odds leader Brook Lopez, who leads the league in blocks and has the size, strength, and savvy to shut down any rival big. Milwaukee has also received exceptional play from 2020 NBA Defensive Player of the Year Giannis Antetokounmpo, whose otherworldly length and athleticism make him a nightmare for would-be penetrators.

The Buck’s staunch interior D is especially bad news for the Lakers, as L.A. ranks 29th in 3-pointers made and third in points in the paint. Without those easy hoops around the rim, the Lakers will be toast before tip-off.

Lakers vs Bucks Over/Under analysis

The total opened at 228.5 at most books, which is nearly four points above the combined scoring average of both teams. It’s a clear indication that oddsmakers have been watching Los Angeles and Milwaukee closely over the past week and have been impressed with how both teams have been gelling offensively.

The Lakers are just two games removed from hanging 143 points on the Spurs and are fresh off a 128-109 rout of the Trail Blazers in which they shot 49.5% from the floor and made 26 trips to the free-throw line. Anthony Davis has been the catalyst of the team’s improved play and recently put together a spectacular stretch in which he posted 30+ points and 15+ rebounds in four consecutive games. LeBron's return from injury has also given L.A. a clear boost as The King has led the Lakers in scoring in two of his first three games back.

The Bucks, meanwhile, have averaged 117 points per game over the past seven days in wins over the Cleveland Cavaliers, Dallas Mavericks, and New York Knicks. The key to their success has been the lights-out play of Antetokounmpo, who remains unstoppable in his 10th year in the league.

The Greek Freak averaged 35 points, 11 rebounds, and 5.7 assists over that span and has now scored 30 points or more in five straight games. There’s little reason to believe he’ll slow down tonight, as Antetokounmpo has averaged 26.4 points per game against the Lakers during his career — his highest mark against any NBA team.

Although the Bucks are able to nullify many of the Lakers' offensive strengths, L.A. still does a superb job of getting easy baskets in transition and has shown a much-improved ability from deep after a historically bad start to the season.

The trends also favor a high-scoring game as the Over is 8-3 in the Lakers’ last 11 games following a straight up win and 7-3 in the Lakers’ last 10 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600.

Lakers vs Bucks betting trend to know

The Lakers are 0-6 ATS in their last six games against a team with a winning SU record. Find more NBA betting trends for Lakers vs. Bucks.

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