Knicks vs Heat Picks and Predictions: Heat Cool Off Randle

The New York Knicks and Miami Heat enter tonight as two teams looking to secure a Top 6 seed in the Eastern Conference and avoid the play-in tournament. The Knicks are as close as a sure-thing to lock up a top spot, with the Heat 3.5 games behind the Knicks and currently in the seventh seed. 

There are a few interesting matchups to watch tonight, and how Julius Randle plays will be important. I’d expect Miami to try and slow him down just enough to give themselves a chance tonight. 

Find out your best options with our free NBA betting picks and predictions for the Knicks vs. Heat tonight.

Knicks vs Heat best odds

Knicks vs Heat picks and predictions

While Julius Randle has been a formidable player this season, several factors suggest he will struggle to score over 25.5 points against the Miami Heat tonight. Randle has not consistently produced at a high level against Miami. In fact, in two of his last three meetings against Miami, he only scored 11 points. This suggests that Miami has found ways to limit his scoring output in the past and may do so again tonight.

Randle will likely see a lot of time from Bam Adebayo, who has a defensive rating of 108.8 this season. Adebayo is a DPOY odds contender who has the ability to completely shut down opposing players. This matchup may be challenging for Randle, and he should struggle to score at his usual rate.

Randle has been taking a staggering 8.1 threes per game, which makes him a live-by-the-three, die-by-the-three player. Yes, he can attack the basket and score, but too often, he settles for bad shots. He only makes 34% of his attempts from behind the arc, which is not an impressive percentage. 

Miami has the fourth-best defensive rating in the NBA, and it will not allow Randle to do whatever he wants on the offensive end. The Heat are a well-coached team with a strong defensive system, and they will likely have a game plan in place to limit Randle's scoring output.

With Jalen Brunson scoring 39 points in their previous game, the Knicks may choose to run their offense through him in this game. This could result in fewer opportunities for Randle to score and may limit his overall production.

While Randle has been a strong player this season, several factors suggest he will struggle to score over 25.5  points against the Heat tonight. 

My best bet: Julius Randle Under 25.5 points (-122)

Knicks vs Heat spread analysis

Tonight's game between the Knicks and Heat is a matchup between two likely Eastern Conference playoff teams, with the Knicks looking to cover a -3 spread. The Knicks are on a roll, having won their last seven games and going 9-1 in their last 10 games. This impressive run suggests that the Knicks are a team to be reckoned with and should be favored to cover the spread tonight.

One of the key factors that bode well for the Knicks covering the spread is their impressive record against the spread this season. The Knicks are 35-26-3 ATS, while the Heat are 22-28-3. The Knicks' offensive firepower is another reason to be optimistic about their chances of covering the spread. 

The Heat score an average of 107.8 points per game. The Knicks are 23-0 ATS when holding opponents under 107.8 points. If the Knicks can continue to play solid defense and limit the Heat's scoring output, they should be able to secure a victory and cover the spread. 

Knicks vs Heat Over/Under analysis

The Over/Under for the Knicks and Heat game tonight is 215 points. Both teams have formidable defenses, making it likely we are headed for the Under tonight. Miami has the fourth-best defensive rating in the NBA (112.5). Similarly, since acquiring Josh Hart in a trade in February, the Knicks have become a much stronger defensive team, ranking seventh-best in defensive rating. These numbers suggest that the game may be low-scoring, favoring the Under.

Both teams are ranked 27th and 28th in pace, respectively, which could contribute to a lower-scoring game. When the game slows down there are fewer possessions and attempts. 

It's also worth noting that the last matchup between these two teams had an Over/Under of 212.5 points, and it resulted in the Under by 2.5 points. 

Knicks vs Heat betting trend to know

Knicks are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Knicks vs. Heat.

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