Best Kings vs Pelicans Player Props Tonight: Zion Absence May Not Help McCollum

Prop bet #1: Keon Ellis Over 2.5 assists

Of all the bets you're going to see me give out on Friday, this is my favorite one: Keon Ellis Over 2.5 assists at +136 at DraftKings. With Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter out, Ellis has been starting and seeing elevated minutes for the Sacramento Kings, but there have always been question marks about how secure his minutes truly are.

You can put those thoughts to bed after what I witnessed against the Warriors in the play-in opener, where Ellis shadowed Klay Thompson and held him to zero points. Yes, you read that correctly — Thompson scored zero points, and Ellis played a team-high 38 minutes. Ellis seeing the most minutes in an elimination game speaks volumes about Mike Brown's trust in him, and it's why I'm attacking his assists prop on Friday.

With Zion Williamson out and the offensive load shifting to CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram, the New Orleans Pelicans will be very dependent on their perimeter players scoring and creating offense. This is why I believe Ellis will once again see elevated minutes because he's the Kings' best perimeter defender, so his assignments, combined with how the Pelicans will need to generate offense without Williamson, will keep him on the floor.

The reason why I like Ellis's assists prop is because of the matchup he should see on the offensive end of the floor. The Pelicans have point-of-attack defenders who can contain De'Aaron Fox, but they have one weak link on the perimeter: McCollum. Fox will always draw the best defender, and we should see McCollum on Ellis, which will get Ellis more involved in the offense and certain actions because the Kings will want to attack McCollum's defense.

Ellis is projected to have 2.9 assists on Friday against the Pelicans, which isn't quite the three dimes you're looking for for a green checkmark, but it's the price point that is the major key here. Based on this projection, we can price Keon Ellis odds at -116 to go Over the total of 2.5 assists, but this bet is trading at +136 at DraftKings.

Keon Ellis prop: Over 2.5 assists (+136 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: Dyson Daniels Over 1.5 assists

You know those point-of-attack defenders I was talking about for the Pelicans in my write-up for Ellis' assists prop? Dyson Daniels is one of them, and he's the one that I believe could see elevated minutes on the Pelicans' side because of the matchup with Fox. 

Against the Los Angeles Lakers, Jose Alvarado provided a spark for the Pelicans, playing 25 minutes and dropping 7 dimes. Alvarado is also a bench player who could see elevated minutes as a defender on Fox, but I lean more toward Daniels. 

When you go back and watch the film of past games between the Pelicans and Kings, while Alvarado is annoying as a defender, he isn't as disruptive to Fox's offensive game as you'd like. Fox loves to stop in the lane and pop the mid-range jump shot, and with Alvarado standing at 6'0", his defense doesn't bother Fox much. 

Herb Jones will draw the initial assignment on Fox, but when Willie Green turns to the bench, and there will be more minutes available for the bench players with Williamson out, I think he will turn to Daniels to guard Fox. Daniels is 6'8" and has a 6'11" wingspan, which is much more troublesome and disruptive to how Fox likes to score. 

So why the assists prop? Well, Daniels is projected to have 2.1 assists against the Kings on Friday, which gives us an edge on the total of 1.5 (-130), but this is based on a projection of around 15 minutes. I personally believe Daniels will be playing more than 15 minutes because of Fox, which would only increase our edge. If he doesn't, that's fine; we aren't dependent on it, and I still like this bet. 

With our projection of 2.1 assists for Daniels, we can price Dyson Daniels odds at -158, and this bet is showing a positive expected value of 8%.

Dyson Daniels prop: Over 1.5 assists (-130 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: CJ McCollum Under 23.5 points

The Kings and Pelicans played right before the regular season ended on April 11, and I played the Under on McCollum's points prop when it was trading at 24.5 (-115), and he went Over the total with 31 points. Obviously, not the outcome I was looking for, but that red X isn't going to stop me from coming after CJ McCollum odds against the Kings, because I do believe there is a probability gap we can exploit here at this price.

The first thought is that McCollum's usage may increase without Williamson in the lineup, and while it's possible, McCollum also loses a player who draws a ton of help defense and creates open looks for him from beyond the arc. Maybe against other opponents Williamson doesn't create as many looks for McCollum, but against the Kings, that's a different story. The Kings don't have rim protection or a defender who can handle Williamson, so they have to send a lot of help defense his way. McCollum won't be the beneficiary of that on Friday without Williamson in the lineup.

Not only will he not have Williamson creating for him, but this is not the same matchup for McCollum that he's seen in the past from the Kings where he has torched them. With Huerter and Monk both out, McCollum won't be able to exploit their defense. And not only can he not exploit their defense, but he now has to contend with an elite perimeter defender in Ellis guarding him. It's a massive swing when it comes to matchups, compared to what McCollum has seen in the past from the Kings.

McCollum is projected to score 22.1 points on Friday against the Kings, which allows us to price the Under 23.5 points at -150, but it is available at FanDuel at +100.

CJ McCollum prop: Under 23.5 points (+100 at FanDuel)