As the Atlanta Hawks try to hold onto the No. 10 seed in the Eastern Conference, and a NBA Play-In Tournament berth, they have to hit the road and take on a surging Dallas Mavericks team.
The NBA odds have the Mavericks as an 11.5-point home favorite as the Hawks continue to struggle without Trae Young. Dallas, on the other hand, has won 11 of its last 13 behind the play of Luka Doncic.
Find out where my best bets lie in our NBA picks and predictions for Hawks vs. Mavericks on Thursday, April 4.
Hawks vs Mavericks predictions
My best bet: Luka Doncic Over 44.5 points and assists (-115 at bet365)
When Deandre Ayton and Marvin Bagley III were selected over Luka Doncic in the 2018 NBA Draft, it was two of the biggest mistakes in recent league history. Of course, there’s an obvious argument that another mistake was made that night when the Atlanta Hawks selected Doncic No. 3 overall and flipped him to the Dallas Mavericks for Trae Young, the fifth pick in that draft.
Now Doncic is a five-time All-Star and one of the most prolific playmakers in NBA history. The 25-year-old has shown no signs of slowing down either, leading the league in points per game (33.9) and adding the third-most assists per game (9.8) this season.
This Hawks defense is in for a tough night with the level Doncic has been on as of late, too. Since dropping 73 points against the Hawks on Jan. 26, Doncic is averaging 34.4 points and 10.9 assists per game.
So while it’s unlikely Doncic combines for 80 points and assists this time against Atlanta, he’s in perfect position to dominate the Hawks again and finish with Over 44.5 points and assists. Quin Snyder’s defense is one of the worst in the league, allowing the 27th-most points per game (120.3) and fourth-most 3-pointers (13.8).
The perimeter defense has been a massive issue, with Atlanta giving up the third-highest 3-point percentage in the league (38.1%), which Doncic should be able to capitalize on. The Mavericks star ranks second in the NBA in 3-pointers made per game (4.0) while taking a team-leading 10.4 shots from behind the arc and hitting 38.1% of them.
Between his volume — he’s first in the league in usage rate among players who have played over 40 games (35.5%) — and versatility as a scorer, Doncic can light this defense up. But his passing prowess will be on full display, too.
Atlanta allows the sixth-most assists per game in the league (28.1) and Doncic has enough scoring talent around him to take advantage, especially with the heater Kyrie Irving has been on.
Hawks vs Mavericks same-game parlay
Luka Doncic Over 44.5 points and assists
Kyrie Irving Over 25.5 points
Dejounte Murray Over 23.5 points
Alongside Doncic’s dominant play, Irving has been stuffing the stat sheet with at least 26 points in five of his last nine games. He’s averaging 26.2 points over those nine games and can exploit a Hawks defense that’s allowing the second-most points per game to shooting guards this season (23.98).
The Hawks’ best hope in this matchup is to rely on Dejounte Murray to get after a Dallas defense that’s 20th in points allowed per game (116.1). Murray is also just a few games removed from a 40-point performance against the Boston Celtics.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Hawks vs Mavericks odds and trends
Hawks vs Mavericks live odds
Hawks vs Mavericks opening odds
- Spread: Atlanta +11.5 | Dallas -11.5
- Moneyline: Atlanta +449 | Dallas -565
- Over/Under: Over 231.5 | Under 231.5
Hawks vs Mavericks spread and Over/Under analysis
- As the Mavericks continue to win, and the Hawks struggle without Young, Dallas opened as a 10.5 to 11.5-point favorite. Most books have come up to Dallas -11.5 to -12.
- The Mavs have been one of the best ATS teams this season at 43-32, while Atlanta has been the worst at just 28-48.
- The Over/Under opened as high as 231.5, but has since come down to as low as 227.5.
- No team in the NBA is better at hitting the Over than Atlanta at 41-32-3. Dallas, however, is just 34-40-1.
Hawks vs Mavericks trend
The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 4Q moneyline in seven of their last 10 games at home (+4.70 Units / 33% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Hawks vs. Mavericks.
Hawks vs Mavericks game info
| Location: | American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX |
| Date: | Thursday, April 4, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports SE-ATL |
Not intended for use in MA.
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