Best Hawks vs Bulls Player Props Today: How Will Trae's Return Alter Atlanta's Offense?

Prop bet #1: Batman no more

This offseason will feature plenty of discussion over how the Atlanta Hawks should proceed with Trae Young and Dejounte Murray leading their backcourt. Tonight’s results will serve as the final data point in what has been a skewed process this season.

For our purposes, the pieces to focus on are how each player performed individually with and without the other. Murray averaged 9.1 assists in 28 games without Young on the court and just 5.0 assists in 50 games with him.

Young’s impact on Murray’s workload covers all facets, but it shows up most distinctly in his playmaking. Murray’s usage rate falls to 24.9% from 30.1%, so by about a sixth; his field goal attempts fall by a bit more than a sixth, as well. His assists drop by nearly half.

That showed in the last week. Murray handed out just four and three assists in the two games he shared the court with Young to end the season, while Young gave out seven and 12.

That trend may be emphasized tonight, and even if it's not, Murray’s time alongside Young sets a precedent to bet on.

Dejounte Murray prop: Under 5.5 assists (-118 at Pinnacle)

Prop bet #2: Hunting season

Focus again on the “with/without Trae Young” splits and you may be reluctant to believe in De’Andre Hunter to hit three or more 3-pointers. He took 6.2 per game without Young this season and only 4.6 with him.

However, do not overlook two other facts. First of all, Hunter hit at a higher rate with Young setting him up, at 39.9% compared to 37.2%. Finding a balance between the greater workload and the greater success rate would be an Atlanta ideal.

And facing the Bulls will be an ideal opportunity to show that balance. Since March 1, a date chosen simply to have a more pertinent data set, Chicago has given up looks from deep on 44.9% of opponents’ field goal attempts, the second-highest rate in the NBA. And foes made 37.2% of those shots, No. 9 in the NBA.

The Hawks will gladly take those shots, heaving from long range on 42.0% of their field goal attempts since March 1, No. 8 in the league.

Hunter will have looks. Young will set him up. He has found a better rhythm in the last couple of months without the franchise point guard. If that rhythm carries over, this prop is far too delightful with plus-money odds.

De’Andre Hunter prop: Over 2.5 made threes (+120 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Ayo!

Atlanta also gives up plenty of looks from beyond the arc with 42.0% of their opponents' shots since March 1 coming from deep, No. 9 in the NBA. One assumes that will not matter against the Chicago Bulls, who takes only 34% of its shots from 3, last in the NBA and by quite a bit.

Blame DeMar DeRozan. Well, perhaps not blame, as he's effective from the midrange, but anyone taking 15.4 shots from 2-point land and 2.9 from deep each game (all numbers since March 1) is going to lower a team’s overall rate. Not to get too deep into DeRozan while setting up a prop on Ayo Dosunmu, but realize that DeRozan takes 20.7% of Chicago’s shots, and only 15.8% of his shots are from deep.

In other words, the rest of the Bulls’ rotation takes 3-pointers on 39.1% of their shots. That would rank No. 21 in the NBA, still not a modern offense but a more acceptable one.

So those non-DeRozan players should see looks against Atlanta and Dosunmu should be the undervalued piece of that. He's taken 4.9 threes per game since March 1, making 39.4% of them and 1.9 per game. As long as the juice does not cross -150, there's value in trusting Dosunmu to help spur the Bulls’ offense.

Ayo Dosunmu prop: Over 1.5 made threes (-138 at FanDuel)