With 8.5 seconds left in Game 1, the Indiana Pacers appeared ready to shock the world. Instead, just four days later, they'll be playing for their playoff lives against the Boston Celtics, who have restored order in the Eastern Conference Finals with a commanding 2-0 lead.
With Tyrese Haliburton officially ruled out for Game 3, my Celtics vs. Pacers prediction and NBA picks aren't being too kind to Indiana’s chances.
Celtics vs Pacers prediction
My best bet
Celtics -7 (-110 at DraftKings)
My analysis
After choking away a golden opportunity to begin the series against the Boston Celtics, Game 2 was a house of horrors for the Indiana Pacers.
Outside of the hot shooting of Pascal Siakam, just about nothing went their way as their offense unraveled, their defense looked pathetic for long stretches of the game, and Tyrese Haliburton left the court with what was initially deemed “left leg soreness”. It was so bad that Rick Carlisle all but waved the white flag with more than 10 minutes remaining in the game by sending in a platoon of reserves.
As the series turns to Indiana, all eyes are on Haliburton’s health status. While he’s officially listed as questionable, I have serious doubts about his ability to impact Game 3 on Saturday.
Muscle injuries are unforgiving. If a player gets one that is bad enough to leave the game and not return, as happened to Haliburton on Thursday, the minimum amount of time you should expect them to miss is one week.
In this instance, not only are the Pacers playing 48 hours later, but it’s also reaggravation of the same hamstring injury from January that transformed Haliburton from a first-team All-NBA candidate to one who played at a sub-All-Star level for most of the time since.
I’m not confident that Haliburton will play in Game 3. If he does, I expect him to be so limited in what he can do to generate his own shot that it fundamentally saps what makes the Indiana offense work.
That means the Pacers are going to need a big game from their backup point guard.
TJ McConnell is an awesome change-of-pace guard off the bench. He loses a significant part of his value when he’s played heavy minutes, particularly against a defense this good.
For one thing, he’s used to taking advantage of second-unit defenders and players who can’t afford to expend quite as much energy as he does. If he’s asked to play 35 minutes, he’ll be gassed for most of that, and TJ, with his energy sapped, becomes a two-way liability.
He’s also just nowhere close to as impactful a scorer as Haliburton is. Not only does Tyrese bend the court with his shooting gravity, but his individual efficiency clocks in at 62.6% true shooting in the playoffs. It’s quite a drop off to TJ’s at 51.6%.
Siakam also becomes much easier to double-team if Haliburton can’t generate shots or if TJ is the one on the ball. If Haliburton can’t get separation with the threat of his jumper, the Celtics already imposing switching defense also becomes all but impenetrable.
I think this line is seriously undervaluing the cascading impacts from a limited or outright absent Haliburton. He’s the straw that stirs the drink for Indiana, and without him, the Celtics should control Game 3.
Celtics vs Pacers same-game parlay (SGP)
Celtics -7
Tyrese Haliburton Under 16.5 points
Tyrese Haliburton Under 2.5 threes
If Haliburton plays — and every sportsbook is taking props on him like they believe he’s at least going to try — then he is going to be nowhere near right physically.
We just saw what it looked like when OG Anunoby came back early from a hamstring injury for the New York Knicks. He looked like he was running in cement before Tom Thibodeau mercifully pulled the plug just five minutes into the game.
Even if Haliburton’s strain isn’t as severe, he will be facing a powerful mental hurdle that comes with the fear of further injuring his hamstring. In the back of his mind, he will be worried about fully exploding into his moves, most notably his patented step back three going to his right.
There’s also the very real chance that Haliburton can’t finish the game or that Carlisle pulls him early to preserve him.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Celtics vs Pacers odds
Celtics vs Pacers live odds
Get the latest Celtics vs Pacers NBA playoff odds for Game 3.
Celtics vs Pacers opening odds
- Spread: Boston -7 (-105) | Indiana +7 (-105)
- Moneyline: Boston -261 | Indiana +227
- Over/Under: Over 224 (-106) | Under 224 (-106)
Celtics vs Pacers spread and Over/Under analysis
- Saturday’s spread opened with Boston as little as -6.5 favorites, with that bumping up to between -7 and -7.5 at most sportsbooks.
- The Celtics are 6-4 against the spread in their last 10 games.
- The total for Game 3 opened between as high as 224.5, but that’s dropped to 222.5 just about everywhere as of Saturday morning.
Celtics vs Pacers trend
The Celtics are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games. Find more NBA betting trends for Celtics vs. Pacers.
Celtics vs Pacers game info
| Location: | Gaibridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN |
| Date: | Saturday, 5-25-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
Celtics vs Pacers latest injuries
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