It may not have been pretty, but behind a solid pitching performance from Chris Bassitt, the Toronto Blue Jays pulled out a 3-1 win in their series opener against the New York Yankees.
It could be yet another low-scoring affair in the MLB odds this evening, as these American League East rivals continue this three-game set at the Rogers Centre in Toronto.
I explain why in my MLB picks as I dish out my Yankees vs. Blues Jays predictions for Tuesday, April 16.
Yankees vs Blue Jays prediction
My best bet
Blue Jays ML (-112 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
Chris Bassitt threw 6 1/3 solid innings on Monday night, allowing just one run on four hits while striking out five against what had been a rolling New York Yankees’ lineup, as the Toronto Blue Jays scratched out a 3-1 victory.
There could be another pitcher’s duel in Game 2 as the Yankees hand the ball to left-hander Carlos Rodon, while the Jays counter with fellow southpaw Yusei Kikuchi.
Rodon is attempting to bounce back from a horrendous first season in the Bronx where he pitched to a 5.34 expected ERA and a 1.45 WHIP over an injury-shortened 14 starts. This came just a year after he led the majors in FIP and strikeouts per nine with San Francisco.
While Rodon hasn’t allowed more than two runs in any of his three starts this season, some of the same issues from last season remain.
Last year, Rodon saw a huge dip in his strikeout numbers, with his K% dipping from 33.4% to 22.4%. That has carried over to this season, as he has struck out just 13 batters in 15 2/3 innings. He’s also still giving up a lot of contact, having surrendered 17 hits through three starts.
And for all the faults of the Blue Jays offense, they are handling southpaws pretty well so far. Toronto ranks 10th in batting average and OPS, and sixth in wRC+ this season.
Kikuchi on the other hand, is proving last year’s improvements are no fluke. He’s allowed four runs over his first three starts, good for a 2.69 ERA, and is striking out a big 30.8% of the batters he’s faced. He also shut out the Yankees on four hits while striking out seven back on April 5 at Yankee Stadium.
While the Yankees boast a strong lineup, they are basically on par with the Jays when it comes to facing lefties. Being at home with the superior starting pitcher means there is some value with Toronto tonight.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Justin Turner Over 0.5 RBIs (+120 at PROLINE+)
Justin Turner saw his six-game hitting streak end last night, but that doesn't change the fact that he's been the Blue Jays best hitter through the early part of the season.
Even at 39 years of age, Turner is hitting .362 with a 1.040 OPS through his first 15 games as a Blue Jay. That includes eight extra-base hits and eight runs batted in. And like he’s always done, Turner is crushing left-handed pitching.
Turner is coming off a year with the Red Sox where he hit .285 with a .900 OPS when facing lefties, and more than half of his home runs came against southpaws in only a third of ABs. He is absolutely locked in vs. lefties to start 2024, going a whopping 8 for 10 with a 1.500 OPS.
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Yankees vs Blue Jays odds
Yankees vs Blue Jays live odds
Yankees vs Blue Jays opening odds
- Run line: New York -1.5 (+140) | Toronto +1.5 (-165)
- Moneyline: New York -120 | Toronto +100
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Yankees vs Blue Jays spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Blue Jays opened this American League East matchup as slight home underdogs. However, they have seen the early money and are now the slight favorites.
- While both Rodon and Kikuchi have similar ERAs, Kikuchi has been the more effective of the two and has already had a strong start against New York this season.
- The total hit the board at 8.5 and that's where it remains as of early Tuesday afternoon.
- Both the Yankees and Blue Jays have been solid Under bets so far this season, with New York going 5-11 O/U and Toronto 7-10 O/U.
Yankees vs Blue Jays trend
The Yankees have only hit the first five innings (F5) moneyline in four of their last 15 games for -6.29 Units and a -34% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Blue Jays.
Yankees vs Blue Jays game info
| Location: | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Tuesday, 4-16-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | YES, Sportsnet |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Carlos Rodon (1-0, 1.72 ERA) |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Yusei Kikuchi (0-1, 2.30 ERA) |
Yankees vs Blue Jays latest injuries
Yankees vs Blue Jays weather
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