The Toronto Blue Jays open a big three-game series with the hated New York Yankees at the Rogers Centre on Monday night.
The Blue Jays have won consecutive series vs. struggling teams so this matchup against the Yankees, who own baseball’s, best record will be a big step up in competition.
That said, the MLB odds have the Jays as slight home favorites here as Chris Bassitt toes the rubber against Luis Gill.
Can Toronto take the opener of this important series? Find out where my best MLB picks lie in my Yankees vs. Blue Jays predictions for Monday, April 15.
Yankees vs Blue Jays prediction
My best bet
Yankees (-106 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
It is really interesting to see the Toronto Blue Jays even as slight favorites in the opening game of this three-game set.
The Jays enter this matchup with the New York Yankees having won two series in a row, albeit against the Seattle Mariners and the Colorado Rockies. Even then, it felt like Toronto let a series sweep of Seattle slip away and the series-opening loss to the Rockies where they surrendered 12 runs on 20 hits was embarrassing.
A matchup against the Yankees will be a much better measuring stick. The Yanks have an MLB-best 12-4 record heading into this series and their lineup that now features Juan Soto is crushing it.
So, why are the Yankees underdogs here? My best guess is a perceived edge in starting pitching with Chris Bassitt going against Luis Gil.
Bassitt is coming off his best start of the season, but that was against a struggling Mariners lineup. Bassitt can be successful here, but he still has a 6.23 expected ERA while surrendering a .284 expected batting average to opponents this season. This isn’t great against a Yankees lineup that is seventh in OPS and fifth in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching this season.
On the other side, Gil has excellent stuff but can be quite wild at times which has resulted in one of the highest walk rates in baseball. However, all his other numbers are sparkling. He has a 1.99 xERA, is limiting opponents to a ridiculous .081 xBA, and has a crazy good 36.8% K-rate.
Which is pretty much how his last start against the Jays played out. Gil allowed two runs on two hits while striking out eight with four walks in 4 1/3 innings. The Jays still rank 24th in batting average and OPS vs. righties.
The Yankees won Gil’s last start vs. the Blue Jays 8-3. I like the value of them as slight road dogs tonight.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Bo Bichette Over 0.5 RBIs (+190 at PROLINE+)
Bo Bichette’s seven-game hit streak came to an end on Sunday, but the streak made it clear that the Toronto Blue Jays’ star shortstop is starting to find his rhythm at the plate.
Bichette is one of the best hitters in baseball when everything is clicking for him. That’s because he covers the plate well with his willingness to hit the ball to all fields. It allows him to pitch any pitch in any count and we saw that Bo during the hitting streak.
During those seven games (which dates back to Game 2 in the last series against the Yankees) Bichette was hitting .333 with four extra-base hits and three runs batted in. He also showed a good eye in that last meeting against Luis Gil drawing two walks before driving in Vladimir Guerrero Jr. with a double against the Yankees bullpen.
Bichette is also still hitting in the premier run-producing spot, in the three-hole. I like him to drive in a run tonight at this price.
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Yankees vs Blue Jays odds
Yankees vs Blue Jays live odds
Yankees vs Blue Jays opening odds
- Run line: New York +1.5 -225 | Toronto -1.5 +180
- Moneyline: New York -105 | Toronto -115
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Yankees vs Blue Jays spread and Over/Under analysis
- With Chris Bassitt on the mound, the Blue Jays opened this American League East matchup as slight home favorites in this one.
- Toronto was a road underdog in all three games when these teams previously met at Yankee Stadium at the beginning of the month.
- The total hit the board at 8.5. That number is juiced to the Over as of Monday afternoon and some 9s are even starting to pop up.
- Both New York (5-10 O/U) and Toronto (7-9) have played to the Under in the majority of their games this season. But the Over went 2-1 in that series at Yankee Stadium.
Yankees vs Blue Jays trend
The Yankees are 8-2 in their last 10 games on the road. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Blue Jays
Yankees vs Blue Jays game info
| Location: | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Monday, 4-15-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | YES, SN1 |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Luis Gil (0-0, 3.00 ERA) |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Chris Bassitt (1-2, 5.06 ERA) |
Yankees vs Blue Jays latest injuries
Yankees vs Blue Jays weather
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