White Sox vs Royals Prediction, Picks, and Odds: ChiSox Solve Seth Lugo

The Chicago White Sox are off to a rocky start, losing four of their first five. They’re seeking a win over the Kansas City Royals to get their season back on track.

After a shaky first outing, can Michael Soroka rebound to be the stopper for Chicago, or will the Royals’ Seth Lugo get the better of him?

Let's dive right into it with our in-depth preview of the MLB odds with our MLB picks for White Sox vs. Royals on Thursday, April 4.

White Sox vs Royals odds

White Sox vs Royals predictions

Seth Lugo is a very interesting case for the Kansas City Royals. He had a brilliant 2023 season as his ascent back up the ranks continued after his trip overseas to fix some of his flaws, finishing with a 3.57 ERA over his first full season of starting. Beneath the surface were some troubling peripherals, like a .260 expected batting average – something that was masked by his very low walk rate.

For a pitcher who doesn’t produce many strikeouts, getting outs via contact is paramount. The Royals had one of the best defenses in the league a season ago, which is likely why Lugo had so many positive results. But in the early going of 2024, the defense hasn’t been quite as sharp, ranking 17th in Outs Above Average.

So it’s probably no surprise that Lugo’s expected ERA was at three runs higher than his unblemished marks through one start. He should have a hard time here against a Chicago White Sox team that, while it doesn’t walk a ton, does strike out a lot and should welcome the matchup with a strike-thrower like Lugo. On top of that, they have had a decent level of success against curveballs dating back to last year, which helps considering it’s a pitch Lugo leans on quite a bit.

On the other hand, Michael Soroka’s sample size is quite small given all his injuries through the years, but what we can say for certain is that he doesn’t produce enough ground balls to make up for his below-average strikeout numbers. Like Lugo, his expected stats are quite high, and he did well to earn his four runs over five frames last week against the Tigers given the quality of contact he allowed.

With three walks mixed in for a pitcher who’s never had much success limiting the free passes, I think this is a rather prickly spot for both pitchers. I’m going to grab the Over here, betting on some better results for a White Sox offense which is ready to round into form.

My best bet: Over 8 (-110 at FanDuel)

White Sox vs Royals same-game parlay

Over 8

Dominic Fletcher 1+ hit

Yoan Moncada 1+ hit 

30% boost available

+246 +320 at FanDuel

It’s not exactly the most exciting parlay with relatively low odds, but I do feel good about this one and enjoy the chance to take two White Sox hitters at a steep discount against a pitcher with a great track record but one who I think will ultimately struggle a bit.

The first guy on my list is Dominic Fletcher. He’s been roughly a .300 hitter wherever he’s gone in the minors, and after translating to the big-league level in a cup of coffee with the Diamondbacks, Fletcher’s first season with a new team has gotten off to a slow start.

What I’m looking at here is the matchup with Lugo, who loves to throw his curveball. Fletcher has hunted the breaking ball all year long, and with an expected start against a right-hander I think he will notch a hit. He looked a lot better last time out when he did record his first hit against the curveball of Charlie Morton, and with just one lefty reliever in the bullpen for the Royals outside of closer Will Smith, the chances he’s lifted for a pinch hitter are much lower.

Then, it’s hard not to love Yoan Moncada at this price. He’s the only guy who’s had any sort of success this year for Chicago with five hits in five games, and one in four straight after his 0-for-4 showing on Opening Day. He can hit righties, and he should hit Lugo.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

White Sox vs Royals moneyline and Over/Under analysis

• The Royals opened around -160 favorites before being steadily pushed out to around -166 early on Thursday. Kansas City has moved out past -175 as of Thursday afternoon.
• 84% of the bets and 85% of the money wagered on sides at DraftKings are on the Royals.
• 55% of the tickets and a meaty 66% of the money are on the Under in this game. Despite that, we’ve seen the total move back up to the 8.5 runs it opened at briefly on Thursday before landing back at 8.

Trend to know

The Royals have hit the first five innings moneyline in 23 of their last 39 games at home (+14.97 Units / 36% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for White Sox vs. Royals

White Sox vs Royals game info

Starting pitchers

Michael Soroka (0-0, 7.20 ERA): A once-celebrated pitching prospect with the Atlanta Braves, Soroka was given a shot to prove himself after an injury-riddled career in Chicago. His first outing couldn’t have gone much worse, seeing him allow four runs and 10 baserunners in a no-decision against the Tigers last week.

Seth Lugo (0-0, 0.00 ERA): The 34-year-old continued to defy the underlying metrics with a strong showing against the Twins last week in his first start, spinning six scoreless innings and allowing just three baserunners to four strikeouts. He’ll be in a similarly friendly spot against a struggling White Sox lineup.

Latest injuries

Weather

Pages related to this topic