The Toronto Blue Jays might be 6-8 SU on the season, but the local feel around the team is as bleak as the weather on the East Coast. The Jays dropped the series opener to the Colorado Rockies last night 12-4 as a -220 favorite and are even longer today at -200 with right-hander Yariel Rodriguez making his MLB debut.
With the Jays’ bullpen issues and a giant question mark with Rodriguez and his leash, the Rockies could continue to turn over the order today after putting up 12 runs on 20 hits yesterday.
Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and Rockies vs. Blue Jays predictions, for Saturday, April 13.
Rockies vs Blue Jays prediction
My best bet
Rockies team total Over 3.5 (-122 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
Yariel Rodriguez has been dealing in the minors, making two starts and allowing just one hit while striking out 10 over six-plus innings. That sounds like a great arm the Blue Jays are bringing up to make his MLB debut, but after a 47-pitch outing in his last start, an injured 2023 season, and a potential 100-inning cap for 2024, the former Chunichi Dragon is not expected to go deep today, and that’s bad news for the Jays.
The Toronto bullpen gave up 10 hits and six runs yesterday. That moved the unit’s ERA to 5.60 on the season, which is good for 28th in the league. Its -0.8 WAR is also the worst in baseball, per FanGraphs, and two middle-releivers threw over 40 pitches as Kevin Gausman couldn’t get out of the fourth inning.
There are going to be a lot of innings to eat here, and there are too many landmines in the Jays’ bullpen for them to hang zeros across the board. Bowden Francis will come in after Rodriguez, but he was just demoted to the bullpen after allowing 12 runs (four home runs) across two starts and eight-plus innings of work. This bullpen might be tasked to get as many as 18 outs.
I am smashing the Colorado team total Over 3.5 at -122 for these reasons. Its early-season offensive woes are suppressing the numbers, and the matchup and hitting environment might be the best on the slate today for the afternoon game.
Colorado could get Charlie Blackmon back today after he missed yesterday with an illness, but the Rockies showed they can plate without the veteran hitter as the team had 10 extra-base hits in last night's route.
Nolan Jones might be waking up, lead-off man Ezequiel Tovar has a .975 OPS, hit his third homer of the season, and swiped his second bag last night. No.2 hitter Ryan McMahon had three doubles on a four-hit day.
The Rockies have the chance to get on the board early, and even if Rodriguez looks good, his leash is short and he’ll give way to the worst bullpen in baseball.
The Over 9 is in play, as is the Colorado moneyline at +160 or better, but the Rockies to score is my best bet.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
George Springer Over 0.5 home runs (+550 at PROLINE+)
Springer is hitting just .182 but has two longballs on the season and has taken Colorado starter Dakota Hudson deep once on just three at-bats. He could get to the plate six times today in a game I'm projected to see a lot of scoring thanks to heavy bullpen innings.
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Rockies vs Blue Jays odds
Rockies vs Blue Jays live odds
Rockies vs Blue Jays opening odds
- Run line: Colorado +1.5 (-120) | Toronto -1.5 (+100)
- Moneyline: Colorado +165 | Toronto -200
- Over/Under: Over 9 (-105) | Under 9 (-105)
Rockies vs Blue Jays spread and Over/Under analysis
- This game will feature two of the worst bullpens in baseball, and with neither starter projected to get deep, both offenses have the chance to plate runs in the middle-to-late innings.
- The Jays are still without their two best relievers in Erik Swanson and Jordan Romano, who are expected back in late April.
- THE BAT is projecting the Rockies to win at 42%, which makes it the fourth-best +EV moneyline play of the day behind the Giants, Mariners, and Marlins.
- The Rockies continue to be a great F5 team to back, especially on the road. They have a +43% ROI on their F5 team total Over across their last 19 road games and a +31% ROI on the F5 Run Line over their last 35 away games.
Rockies vs Blue Jays trend
The Colorado Rockies have covered the Run Line in 40 of their last 72 games (+11.15 Units / 14% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rockies vs. Blue Jays
Rockies vs Blue Jays game info
| Location: | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Saturday, 4-13-2024 |
| First pitch: | 3:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | COLR, Sportsnet |
| Rockies starting pitcher: | Dakota Hudson (0-2, 2.38 ERA) |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Yariel Rodriguez (0-0, 0.00 ERA) |
Rockies vs Blue Jays latest injuries
Rockies vs Blue Jays weather
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