The weekend series are underway and despite the rain and gloom of the East Coast weather, I’m bringing a lot of optimism to tonight’s MLB odds.
I’m hitting the pitcher markets and looking at a trio of different MLB picks, including fading a first-timer at Coors. Here are my three favorite MLB player props for Friday, April 19.
MLB props for April 19
- Alec Marsh Under 15.5 outs (-125 at DraftKings)
- Clarke Schmidt to record win (+155 at bet365)
- Emerson Hancock Under 4.5 strikeouts (-128 at FanDuel)
Picks made on 4/19 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
Best MLB bonuses
All Users
Instant payout for MLB moneylines
If your team goes up by 5+! Claim Now
New Users
Get a no-sweat first bet
Up to $1,500! Claim Now
Eligible USA locations only. Also, see our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2024.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Best MLB bets today
Prop bet #1: Making money on Marsh
Alec Marsh’s total outs are projecting well to the Under, with Covers’ prop projections sitting at 13.8 with a total of 15.5. That total has been taking Under money today, but with DraftKings still sitting at -125, there is still time to get in on fading the Kansas City Royals pitcher when he goes up against the Baltimore Orioles.
Marsh has made three starts to the year and topped this number just once. The right-hander's best path to this Under is his short leash, as the right-hander has thrown 77, 78, and 90 pitches over those three games. THE BAT is projecting 83 pitches today, which is the fifth-fewest of any starting pitcher on tonight's slate.
Kauffman Stadium is the biggest outfield in baseball and suppresses Ks, and the Orioles are likely starting seven left-hander batters to have a split advantage over Marsh.
The market is falling but I’d play this to -140.
Alec Marsh prop: Under 15.5 outs (-125 at DraftKings)
Prop bet #2: Giving a Schmidt
The New York Yankees are -165 favorites against Tyler Alexander and the Tampa Bay Rays this evening, but I’m looking to take Yankee starter Clarke Schmidt for the win at +155, instead.
THE BAT has the Yankees ML as the best +EV ML play on the day (70% winning probability), which is substantial considering the odds. That’s giving Schmidt’s win market great value.
The biggest concern here is qualifying, as the starter needs to get 15 outs. However, with Covers’ prop projection expecting 16.2 outs, 15 should be a safe number to cover.
The Yankees’ offense should give Schmidt the lead early as Rays lefty Tyler Alexander has given up 11 runs over 15+ innings and will give way to a poor bullpen that has the worst ERA in baseball.
In some of these spots, the F5 run line might be an option, but the Yankees’ bullpen has been elite to begin the year and can hold it down vs. a league-average offense. All signs point toward Schmidt being in line for the win tonight.
Clarke Schmidt prop: to record win (+155 at bet365)
Prop bet #3: I remember my first Coors start
Seattle Mariners starter Emerson Hancock will get his first taste of Coors Field, and although the Colorado Rockies strike out a lot, the altitude is a different beast — especially for first-timers.
The young right-hander’s strikeout total is sitting at 4.5 and paying -128 for the Under. Given Hancock's recent pitch counts of just 81, 88, and 74 in his first three starts, along with a strikeout-per-inning rate in the minors that is likely to decrease in the MLB, the Under bet presents significant value this evening.
Covers’ prop projections have the visiting starter at 3.9 Ks on the day and THE BAT is projecting just 82 pitches. Hancock has allowed 19 hits with four home runs over 14+ innings while collecting just 11 Ks in that span.
The Coors effect will only stifle the young right-hander even more.
Emerson Hancock prop: Under 4.5 strikeouts (-128 at FanDuel)
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
