It’s a beautiful Saturday of baseball, with a packed slate of games. With that comes great opportunity for value in the MLB player props markets.
Today, we’ve sifted through the MLB odds to find some of the best value in the prop market with three plays. As always, be ready to line shop for the best available numbers you can find.
Here are my free MLB picks for player props on Saturday, April 6.
MLB props for April 6
- Gleyber Torres stolen base (+550 at bet365)
- Kenta Maeda Over 6.5 strikeouts (+125 at DraftKings)
- Ian Happ Over 1.5 total bases (+180 at BetRivers)
Picks made on 4/6 at 11:15 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Best MLB bets today
Prop bet #1: Nerves of steal
Out of every starting pitcher going today, none has given up more stolen bases over the last two seasons than Kevin Gausman. Today, he goes up against the New York Yankees, who will be eager to avenge its opening day loss yesterday.
We like the value on Gleyber Torres odds to swipe a base today. I projected this number to be around +500, so there’s a solid edge against the number here.
Torres has a solid .263 average against Gausman in his 19 plate appearances. He has also been in excellent form early this season, with multiple hits in two of his last three games. Last season, he stole 19 bases, a good portion of which came in games following a loss.
I expect New York as a team to be aggressive on the base paths today, and Torres is one of the best values among all Yankees to profit from that.
Gleyber Torres prop: Stolen base (+550 at bet365)
Prop bet #2: Kentagon
Maeda should be able to rack up a good amount of Ks today, and we’ll look to take advantage of that with a plus-money price.
I don’t need to tell you that the Oakland Athletics are awful. However, you might not know that they are on a trajectory to strike out at a higher clip this year than last season. Entering today, the A’s are averaging nearly 1.5 more strikeouts per game than they did last season, with a significantly higher whiff rate.
Kenta Maeda odds are a little low because of the recency bias at the start of the season against the Chicago White Sox when he struck out only two. However, in just three innings against Oakland last season, Maeda was able to strike out six Oakland players. He’ll go longer today, and you’d be hard-pressed to think he doesn’t go Over this number.
Kenta Maeda prop: Over 6.5 strikeouts (+125 at DraftKings)
Prop bet #3: What's Happening
No pitcher in baseball has had a more uneven first two starts of the season than Los Angeles Dodgers right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
In his first start, he didn’t make it out of the first inning against the San Diego Padres, when he allowed five earned runs. He then pitched five scoreless innings against the St. Louis Cardinals, naturally. The truth about where the Japanese product is in his first season is probably somewhere between those two starts. It’s going to take some time to adjust.
While that adjustment happens, we like Ian Happ odds to take advantage of the matchup. He’s gone over this number two of his last three games and has swung a hot bat overall this season. Happ has the highest batting average and wOPS against the curveball among Chicago Cubs this season. That’s a pitch Yamamoto relies on heavily. Happ should be able to profit from that here.
Ian Happ prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+180 at BetRivers)
Not intended for use in MA.
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