Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Fedde Finds His Stride vs Guardians

Prop bet #1: No to Soriano

Let’s kick things off with a play we released this morning on Covers’ MLB player prop release show powered by THE BAT and that’s Los Angeles Angels starter Jose Soriano Under 4.5 strikeouts at -118.

Soriano is making his first start of the season as he transitions from a bulk reliever to a member of the rotation. He projects at around a K/inning starter but getting five innings from the right-hander is going to be tough tonight.

José Soriano is joining the rotation in the wake of Chase Silseth’s elbow injury and is starting Wednesday vs the Rays

— Rhett Bollinger (@RhettBollinger) April 8, 2024

THE BAT is projecting only 81 pitches and just over 14 outs from Soriano, who is seeing his strikeout market fall across the board. The Covers’ player prop projections have him for just 3.4 Ks, so even if this market falls to 3.5, the plus-money Unders are still showing value.

It’s not a great matchup vs. the Tampa Bay Rays and the wind is blowing out at Angel Stadium. He hasn’t thrown more than three innings this year and tossed just 43 pitches in his last appearance, which was on April 5. 

This market is going to crash, but my buy point is still +100 Under 3.5 on the 3.4 strikeout projection. 

Jose Soriano prop: Under 4.5 strikeouts (-118 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #2: Feed Fedde

It’s a pitcher’s park in Cleveland today with 60-degree temps and slight winds blowing in, and that’s good news for Chicago White Sox starter Erick Fedde and his modest 15.5 out total.

His Over 15.5 outs can still be found at plus-money but it is dropping, and for good reason. Fedde should flirt with 95-plus pitches today and gets a weaker Cleveland Guardians offense that walks at the lowest rate in baseball, which should help the Chicago starter keep that pitch count down. 

He has yet to pitch into the sixth inning but that’s why his market is where it is and why bettors are getting a great price on the Over. He’s allowed 11 hits over 9-plus innings but also has posted an 11:3 K:BB rate over his two starts. 

This is a low number for a pitcher who THE BAT projects for 91 pitches, and the Covers prop projections have him for 16.7 total outs. At plus money for the Over 15.5, this is a solid +EV bet in one of my favorite MLB betting markets that is also a lot of fun to watch. I’d play this Over to -110.

Erick Fedde prop: Over 15.5 outs recorded (+105 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Coors effect

Pitching in Coors Field is always a great angle to bet on. It’s not just that the elevation carries the ball further and increases run potential, it’s also the effect the altitude has on pitches. 

The ball breaks and spins differently in Colorado, and that’s bad news for pitchers who aren’t used to it. The Arizona Diamondbacks will send Tommy Henry to the mound today, and his Unders have been getting hit hard.

His Under 4.5 Ks bodes well at 3.83 projected. The Colorado Rockies are a bad offense but they strike out at a lower rate at home than on the road. From the start of last year, the Rockies had a 27% K-rate on the road, which leads all of baseball. At home, that number falls to 23%. It's still bad, but much better than their road split, and Coors is the reason.

Covers’ prop projections have him for 14.3 total outs, making his Under 15.5 outs a decent play at -135, but after the Rockies ran into two outs and a double play vs. Merrill Kelly yesterday, I'm going with strikeouts today. 

FINAL: Rockies 9, Diamondbacks 4

W: Peter Lambert
L: Tommy Henry
#Rockies | #Dbacks @Rockies | @Dbacks pic.twitter.com/6xaZLxe1vo

— MLB Scorecards (@MlbScorecards) March 31, 2024

Kelly had four punchouts over six innings yesterday while Henry already saw the Rockies this season, where he had just four Ks over four innings. The familiarity factor favors the hitters.

Tommy Henry prop: Under 4.5 strikeouts (+106 at Caesars)