The season may be young, but neither the San Diego Padres nor the San Francisco Giants have gotten off to an ideal start. The two teams will wrap up a three-game series with a rubber match at Oracle Park on Sunday.
San Francisco took Game 1 by a score of 3-2 on a walkoff double. San Diego answered with a comfortable 4-0 win in Game 2 last night.
According to the MLB odds, the Giants are -170 with ace Logan Webb on the bump on Sunday. Is that line warranted, or is this an overreaction based on the pitching matchup? Read on for my best bet and full MLB picks and predictions for Padres vs. Giants on Sunday, April 7.
Padres vs Giants odds
Padres vs Giants predictions
Sunday’s series finale is already the seventh meeting between the San Diego Padres and the San Francisco Giants this season.
They kicked things off by splitting a four-game set in San Diego and have now traded wins in San Fran. Game 3 features a pitching matchup between Matt Waldron and Logan Webb.
Waldron is an interesting case in that his knuckleball is his most-used pitch. The 27-year-old debuted in 2023, posting a 4.35 ERA, 4.48 xERA, and 5.46 FIP across 41 1/3 innings.
His 17.9% strikeout left a lot to be desired, but his 6.9% walk rate was manageable. He gave up a lot of hard contact with a 10.8% barrel rate and that was an issue again in the opener (14.3% barrel rate).
The right-hander had his stuff working against the Cardinals in his debut, generating 12 whiffs on 91 pitches. For him to still have been knocked around for four earned in just four innings shows me he’s likely to labor in even his strongest outings, so there are still plenty of reasons to be hesitant about his profile going forward.
The projection systems aren’t a huge fan of his — the most bearish call for a 4.92 ERA and 4.95 FIP. Such is life as a low-strikeout, high-hard-contact pitcher.
Webb, on the other hand, has been a model of consistency for San Francisco — his ERA hasn’t finished above 3.25 for three years running while his FIP has not exceeded 3.16. He had one successful outing against the Padres before getting shelled by the Dodgers in 2024.
I like the idea of playing the veteran right-hander in his home debut. This is a good rebound spot after a poor performance against a great Dodgers lineup, and Webb has already proved effective against the Padres once this year by allowing two earned runs across six innings in the Giants’ 2024 opener.
Since the Giants have a substantial starting pitching advantage, I’ll target them on the first-five innings run line of -0.5 at -122 odds. Those are better odds than the moneyline, which is available for between -174 and -190 depending on where you look.
My best bet: Giants first-five -0.5 (-122 at FanDuel)
Padres vs Giants same-game parlay
Giants first-five -0.5
Logan Webb 4+ strikeouts
Giants team total Over 4.5
A lot of this handicap relies on Webb having a solid outing. If he does, it’s hard to envision him not reaching at least four strikeouts. He’s not necessarily a pitcher known for his punch-out prowess, but he has a decent 22.5% career strikeout rate and notched at least four Ks in eight straight starts.
I'll also add San Francisco going Over its team total of 4.5 runs. Waldron isn’t a reliable starting pitcher at this juncture and now is a fine time to buy low on a Giants lineup that has underperformed thus far but has the makings of a more dangerous unit than it's displayed thus far.
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Padres vs Giants moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- San Francisco is 7-2 O/U this year. Interestingly enough, that includes a 7-0 O/U record on the road and an 0-2 O/U record at home.
- The weather could be a factor, per usual at Oracle Park, with the current forecast calling for clear skies and winds of 10.3 to 13.9 mph blowing out to right-center field.
- Both bullpens have struggled — San Francisco has a 6.23 ERA and 1.48 WHIP out of the pen while San Diego has a 5.91 ERA and 1.50 WHIP.
Trend to know
San Francisco is 28-19 across its last 47 games at home. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Giants
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Padres vs Giants game info
| Location: | Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA |
| Date: | Sunday, April 7, 2024 |
| First pitch: | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SDPA, NBCS-Bay Area |
Starting pitchers
Matt Waldron (0-1, 9.00 ERA): Waldron won the fifth starter job after a strong spring but coughed up four earned runs on nine hits and a walk across just four innings in his debut. His most-used pitch is a knuckleball which he threw 29.3% of the time last year and 45.1% in his 2024 debut.
Logan Webb (0-1, 6.52 ERA): Webb has been knocked around a bit to start the season, most recently surrendering five earned runs on seven hits and two walks across just 3 2/3 innings in a loss to the Dodgers. Before that, he looked more like his usual self by allowing two earned on five hits and two walks across six innings against these very same Padres.
