Friday marks the 2024 home opener at Oracle Park for Bob Melvin’s San Francisco Giants (2-5). It’s the first of a three-game weekend series against the visiting San Diego Padres (4-5).
Both teams are looking to gain some ground in the NL West after falling into an early deficit. The Padres are three games back of the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Giants are four games back, not helping their cause at all after getting swept in Southern California.
Looking at MLB odds, San Francisco is a slight -115 favorite while the total resides at 7.5.
Read on for my best bet and full MLB picks and predictions for Padres vs. Giants on Friday, April 5.
Padres vs Giants odds
Padres vs Giants predictions
Friday’s series opener is a pitching matchup between Jordan Hicks for the San Francisco Giants and Dylan Cease for the San Diego Padres. This is a rematch between the March 30 matchup when Hicks and Cease combined to allow just two earned runs across 9 ⅔ innings. Both bullpens wound up imploding in a 9-6 win for the Giants.
Hicks’ transition to the rotation may have seemed like an odd one this offseason, but he offers a ton of promise if he can stay healthy. How can a career bullpen guy who pumps 100 mph heat transition to the rotation?
It looks like he plans on dialing back the heat a tad. His 4-seam fastball was down over 2 mph from his 2023 average (100.3 mph) to 98.1 mph in his debut, while his sinker was down from 100.1 mph to 97.1 mph. Still serious heat, but perhaps more sustainable over a larger workload.
Cease introduced a sweeper into his pitching arsenal this year, although he threw the new fifth pitch just twice in his debut. His fastball was up to 96.7 mph after sitting at 95.8 mph a year ago. He’s hoping to regain his 2022 form in which he posted a stellar 2.20 ERA across 184 innings, although that year was an outlier as his xERA has been 3.65 or above in every other season.
The veteran right-hander figures to post a lot of strikeouts this season after ranking in the 84th percentile in whiff% and the 77th percentile in K% a year ago. He already had a healthy 13.6% SwStr% a year ago, and the uptick in velocity could bring that figure even higher.
San Francisco is not immune to the punch out, posting a 23.4% K% thus far. If we isolate just for right-handed pitching, that number rises to 25.6%. The Giants have been below average overall against righties with a 90 wRC+ and a .690 OPS.
I’m taking Cease to go Over his strikeout prop of 6.5 with Friday’s best bet.
My best bet: Dylan Cease Over 6.5 strikeouts (-120 at BetMGM)
Padres vs Giants same-game parlay
Dylan Cease 7+ strikeouts
Padres moneyline
Fernando Tatis Jr. 2+ total bases
I can’t knock the feeling that the Padres are a bit undervalued in this spot. They have the better pitcher on the mound and sport the better lineup, so anything close to a pick ‘em feels a bit off. I get that this is San Francisco’s home opener, but I’ll need to see a larger sample size of Hicks as a starting pitcher before believing he should be valued this highly in the market.
The last leg of this SGP involves Padres star Fernando Tatis Jr. getting 2+ total bases. He’s done so in five of his nine appearances this season and appears set for a monster season after fully overcoming shoulder and wrist injuries two years ago. Still just 25 years old, Tatis has been somewhat overlooked from a national viewpoint, and I think the market will only get more bullish on him as the season goes along.
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Padres vs Giants moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- San Francisco opened at -120 but has since dipped down to -115 across most books. Track any further changes using our MLB line movement tool.
- San Francisco is a perfect 7-0 O/U to start the year.
- The current weather forecast is noteworthy with winds between 13.9 mph and 18.3 mph blowing out to right field.
Trend to know
Cease has notched at least seven strikeouts in five of his last seven starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Giants
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Padres vs Giants game info
| Location: | Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA |
| Date: | Friday, April 5, 2024 |
| First pitch: | 4:35 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SDPA, NBCSBA |
Starting pitchers
Dylan Cease (0-1, 3.86 ERA): San Diego’s big offseason acquisition posted a disappointing 4.58 ERA with the Chicago White Sox a year ago, but his 4.13 xERA and 3.72 FIP are both more encouraging. He faced these very same Giants in his Padres debut on March 30, surrendering three runs (two earned) on two hits and two walks across 4 ⅔ innings while striking out six.
Jordan Hicks (1-0, 0.00 ERA): Hicks transitioned to the rotation after making all but eight of his 212 career appearances out of the bullpen. Initial results are positive — he beat the Padres in his debut by firing five scoreless innings while allowing three hits, a walk, and a HBP while striking out six.
