Padres vs Dodgers Sunday Night Baseball Prop Bets: Tatis Tattoos Paxton

Prop bet #1: Embraceable Yu

The Los Angeles Dodgers are as swing-happy as any team in the majors with 169 strikeouts over their first 17 games. That's why I'm backing the Yu Darvish odds on Over 5.5 strikeouts at a reasonable -120.

Darvish tallied only three strikeouts when these teams met in Korea to kick off the 2024 season, but I don't think the 37-year-old hurler was fully cranked as he was pulled after 3 2/3 innings and 72 pitches. It wasn't as though the Dodgers were lighting him up, as Darvish allowed just one unearned run on two hits and a walk that day.

The Japan native needed a mere 78 pitches to fan seven Giants in his next start, and only 82 pitches to sit down six Cardinals after that. Darvish labored through three innings (65 pitches) before getting a fairly quick hook when last seen, but he's had since Monday to prepare for this start, and I anticipate his leash being a lot longer after the San Diego Padres taxed their bullpen with nine innings of work over the first two games of this series.

Yu Darvish prop: Over 5.5 strikeouts (-120 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: Tatis temptation

A prop quickly rising in popularity among MLB bettors is the combo of H+R+RBI, affectionately known as the "Herbie." The standard line is 1.5, but you can see Shohei Ohtani's line at 2.5 in this market, while others are at just 0.5. Fernando Tatis Jr. might be deserving of the 2.5 line the way he's been swinging the bat for the Friars, yet he's sitting at 1.5 with an Over that's far from onerous. 

Tatis has cleared this bar in 11 of 17 games this year, with eight of those coming across his last 11 overall. Through four games vs. the Dodgers this year, Tatis has gotten to two or more H+R+RBI three times. The Dominican slugger amassed two runs, three hits, and two RBI in the Padres' 8-7 win in 11 innings on Friday before squeaking across the 1.5 H+R+RBI barrier with a hit and an RBI on Saturday.

I'm taking the Over on these Fernando Tatis Jr. odds tonight in spite of James Paxton's strong start to the year (2-0, 1.64 ERA). Paxton has been unable to sustain this level of play since 2019 due to injury, and Tatis has two hits with a homer in three previous meetings with "Big Maple."

Fernando Tatis Jr. prop: Over 1.5 H+R+RBI (-135 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Mookie magic

I also looked at Mookie Betts to go Over 1.5 H+R+RBI, but at 10 cents more juice compared to his odds to score a run, it was not worth it to me. 

I'm usually opposed to betting leadoff men to plate RBIs, and when you look at Betts' game log carefully, you can see why. Nine of his 16 RBI this season have come on home runs. His two RBI on Saturday were the first he plated without the added benefit of driving himself in since the second game of the year. 

A homer would still cash these Mookie Betts odds, but the Dodgers lineup is anything but a one-man show. Shohei Ohtani bats right behind Betts on a regular basis, and he has at least one RBI in seven of his last 11 games. Freddie Freeman typically follows, and while he's in a dry spell RBI-wise (one over his last nine games), customary clean-up hitter Will Smith has been doing his job with eight RBI in April.

If Betts doesn't drive himself in tonight, his teammates are more than capable of picking up the slack.

Mookie Betts prop: Over 0.5 runs (-130 at bet365)