The San Diego Padres (7-8) and Los Angeles Dodgers (10-5) begin a three-game weekend series with Game 1 Friday night at Dodger Stadium.
Yashinobu Yamamato gets the nod for the Los Angeles Dodgers while the San Diego Padres will counter with Michael King. According to MLB odds, the Dodgers are -200 on the moneyline while the total has been set at 8.
Read on for my full MLB picks and Padres vs. Dodgers predictions on Friday, April 12.
Padres vs Dodgers prediction
My best bet
Dodgers -1.5 (+110 at bet365)
My analysis
Yoshinobu Yamamoto is off to a terrific start for the Los Angeles Dodgers, notching a 3.22 xERA and 1.58 FIP through three starts. He’s striking out a ton of batters (31.9% K-rate) and isn’t issuing many free passes (6.4% walk rate), which is generally a good path to success.
The Japanese import struggled in his debut, surrendering five earned while lasting just a single inning against these same San Diego Padres in the season-opening Seoul Series. He’s been masterful ever since, settling in with 10 straight scoreless innings while allowing just seven baserunners and striking out 13.
The Padres counter with Michael King, whose career 3.37 ERA is impressive. Keep in mind that the majority of his prior appearances (97 of 118) have come out of the pen, so there isn’t a huge sample size of him as a starter. His 5.18 xERA and 5.24 FIP both indicate regression from his 3.14 ERA so far in 2024.
King’s box score from his last start looks terrific, when he lasted seven scoreless innings while allowing four hits against the San Francisco Giants. That being said, he generated just eight whiffs on 94 pitches. There are still underlying issues at play with his profile, and he benefitted from facing a struggling Giants lineup that managed just 10 measly runs across a five-game stretch.
One issue has been his command. The right-hander’s 17.2% walk rate nearly defies belief, and he’s issued 11 free passes in just 14 ⅓ innings. His average fastball velocity (93.6 mph) is also down a full tick from last year (94.8 mph) and nearly three full ticks from 2022 (96.5 mph).
San Diego hasn’t found its groove yet this year. The Padres notched their first series win most recently over the Chicago Cubs, and it required an improbable comeback from an 8-0 deficit in Game 1 to do so. On the other hand, the Los Angeles Dodgers have been playing well, with a +13 run differential overall and a 6-2 record at home.
I like this opportunity to play the Dodgers at home, as they’ve shown they’re one of the best teams in the MLB, whereas the Padres haven’t shown me much of anything yet. They have a significant starting pitching advantage Friday and will be returning home — conversely, the Padres have not been tested much on the road.
I’ll play L.A. against the MLB odds run line at -1.5 for slight plus money.
Padres vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)
Dodgers -1.5
Yoshinobu Yamamoto 5+ strikeouts
Michael King 3+ walks
Bonus bet promo available
Yamamoto has generated an impressive 13.1% swinging strike rate thus far, leading me to believe he’s in store for plenty of punchouts as the season progresses. He got 13 whiffs on 80 pitches against the Cubs in his last start and looks to be dealing, so I’ll ride the wave.
King struggles massively to find the strike zone, as alluded to earlier. That’s especially a concern against a patient Dodgers lineup that sports a healthy 10.4% walk rate.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Padres vs Dodgers odds
Padres vs Dodgers live odds
Padres vs Dodgers opening odds
- Run line: San Diego +1.5 (-135) | Los Angeles -1.5 (+100)
- Moneyline: San Diego +165 | Los Angeles -200
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-105) | Under 8 (-105)
Padres vs Dodgers spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Dodgers are 6-2 at home, while the Padres are just 1-2 on the road. San Diego hasn’t played well overall this season despite being in the friendly confines of Petco Park for 10 of its 15 games.
- The Dodgers are 9-5 O/U this season, including a 5-0-1 O/U run in their last six home games.
- The weather forecast calls for winds of 10.3 to 11.4 mph blowing out to left field.
Padres vs Dodgers trend
The Dodgers have covered the run line in 80 of their last 139 games, good for a 14% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Dodgers
Padres vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Friday, 4-12-2024 |
| First pitch: | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | San Diego Padres, SportsNet LA |
| Padres starting pitcher: | Michael King (2-0, 3.14 ERA) |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | Yoshinobu Yamamoto (1-1, 4.09 ERA) |
Padres vs Dodgers latest injuries
Padres vs Dodgers weather
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