It’s Jackie Robinson Day and the Los Angeles Dodgers will host the Washington Nationals to kick off a three-game series tonight at Chavez Ravine.
According to MLB odds, the Dodgers are -360 on the moneyline while the total has been set at 8.5.
Tyler Glasnow was on fire in his last start, notching 14 strikeouts across seven scoreless innings. What will his encore look like? Read on for my best bet, full MLB picks, and Nationals vs. Dodgers predictions on Monday, April 15.
Nationals vs Dodgers prediction
My best bet
Tyler Glasnow Under 8.5 strikeouts (+110 at FanDuel)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Tyler Glasnow was phenomenal in his last start, striking out 14 batters and allowing just three hits while shutting out the Minnesota Twins across seven innings. He also made history by becoming the first pitcher to punch out 14 batters while throwing fewer than 90 pitches since pitch count became officially tracked in 1988.
He makes his encore tonight against a Washington Nationals team that was supposed to be among the worst in MLB heading into the season but has shown some surprising verve, albeit with a losing record. Their 91 wRC+ and .312 wOBA certainly aren’t eye-popping numbers, but those are better than was expected for a team projected by ZiPS to win just 66 games.
The Nats have hit right-handers well with a 107 wRC+ (12th) and a .338 wOBA (seventh). The lineup doesn’t have many stars, but it has quality depth from top to bottom and three different regulars with an OPS topping .840 — outfielder Jesse Winker (.982), shortstop CJ Abrams (.944), and second baseman Luis Garcia Jr. (.841). Riley Adams (.934) has filled in admirably at catcher for Keibert Ruiz, who has been out since April 8 with an illness.
One way the Nats have found success against righties is by remaining patient. They do a decent job of avoiding strikeouts (20.7% K-rate against right-handers) and drawing walks (9.6% walk rate).
That approach could work against a high-strikeout pitcher in Glasnow. The 30-year-old has a decorated injury history and his new ballclub would be wise to keep a close eye on his pitch count throughout the year — especially after rotation-mate Bobby Miller went down with a shoulder injury last week. He was so great in his last appearance that the oddsmakers have priced his strikeout prop at 9.5 with the Under listed between -155 and -180 at the time of this writing.
It’s not a bad time to sell high on Glasnow’s strikeout prop after a historic performance. There’s an 8.5 available in the market with plus money on the Under, which catches my interest as tonight’s best bet.
Nationals vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)
Tyler Glasnow Under 9.5 strikeouts
Will Smith Over 1.5 total bases
Mookie Betts Over 0.5 runs
Washington left-hander Mitchell Parker makes his MLB debut as a replacement for Josiah Gray. The 24-year-old had a 4.20 ERA at Double-A last year and this is a tough spot on the road, so I fancy some Dodgers bat props.
Will Smith has a .869 OPS against southpaws since 2022 and I’m getting offered decent plus money for him to hit for 2+ total bases, so I’ll bite. Mookie Betts has a 1.035 OPS against lefties since 2022, has already scored 20 runs this season, and typically bats leadoff, so it’s easy to envision him crossing home plate at least once.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Nationals vs Dodgers odds
Nationals vs Dodgers live odds
Nationals vs Dodgers opening odds
- Run line: Washington +1.5 (+135) | Los Angeles -1.5 (-160)
- Moneyline: Washington +280 | Los Angeles -360
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+100) | Under 8.5 (-120)
Nationals vs Dodgers spread and Over/Under analysis
- Washington has lost three of its last four games. This will be its seventh consecutive road game.
- Los Angeles has been profitable to the Over at 11-6 O/U overall.
- Los Angeles is 7-1-1 O/U across its last nine home games.
Nationals vs Dodgers trend
Glasnow has thrown for fewer than eight strikeouts in three of his four starts with the Dodgers. Find more MLB betting trends for Nationals vs. Dodgers
Nationals vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Monday, 4-15-2024 |
| First pitch: | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SportsNet Los Angeles, MASN2 |
| Nationals starting pitcher: | Mitchell Parker (0-0, 0.00 ERA) |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | Tyler Glasnow (3-0, 2.25 ERA) |
Nationals vs Dodgers latest injuries
Nationals vs Dodgers weather
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