Mets vs Dodgers Prediction, Picks, and Odds for Today’s MLB Game

The New York Mets (11-8) bring a five-game winning streak into Saturday’s Game 2 against the Los Angeles Dodgers (12-10). 

Still, it’s the home team who is expected to come out on top — looking at MLB odds, the Dodgers are -185 favorites and the total has been set at 9.5. 

Is it time to buy low on the Dodgers and sell high on the Mets? Read on for my best bet and full MLB picks and predictions for Mets vs. Dodgers on Saturday, April 20.

Mets vs Dodgers prediction

My best bet
Dodgers -1.5 (+112 at FanDuel)

My analysis
The New York Mets are one of the hottest teams in baseball after winning five straight and seven of their last eight. This helps create an odd situation in which their expectations have reached a season-high, whereas the Los Angeles Dodgers are perceived to be in the dumps after losing four of their last five and six of their last eight. 

There’s also a perceived difference in Saturday’s starting pitchers — Jose Butto brings forth a stellar 0.75 ERA, while the Dodgers counter with Gavin Stone, who has been blasted for a 6.14 ERA. Dive a little deeper into each pitcher’s respective profile, however, and the gap may not be what it initially seems. 

Butto posted a 3.64 ERA across 42 innings in a cup of coffee at the Big Leagues last year, but he had an unseemly 5.93 ERA in 91 innings at AAA before that. How much can we trust the strong ERA in the MLB thus far? I’m thinking not much — the projection systems all call for an ERA above 4.50, with the most bearish (THE BAT) calling for a 4.91 ERA and 4.80 FIP. 

The young right-hander doesn’t throw particularly hard, averaging 93.8 mph on his fastball. His offerings don’t grade out very well according to his 86 Stuff+, which ranks 118th of 146 starting pitchers. 

While now would be the time to sell high on Butto after a hot start, it could be time to buy the dip with Stone. The 25-year-old hurler’s 3.56 xERA and 2.18 FIP both point toward better days, and he’s displayed great swing-and-miss stuff with a 17.2% swinging strike rate. 

Even though the Dodgers have been slumping while the Mets have been rolling, LA still has the better lineup. The Dodgers have a 116 wRC+ and .339 wOBA against right-handed pitching, whereas the Mets have a 101 wRC+ and .312 wOBA. 

I’m going to buy the dip with the Dodgers and take them against the run line at home, which has typically been a profitable venture. They’ve cashed the run line in 74 of their last 131 games overall and are never an easy out at home, so I’m a willing buyer.

Mets vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)

Dodgers -1.5

Gavin Stone Over 4.5 strikeouts 

Shohei Ohtani 2+ total bases

+461 at FanDuel

Stone’s 17.2% swinging strike rate is a very encouraging sign, and while it may regress toward the 14.4% that he posted a year ago, that’s still a promising number.

We attacked teammate Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s strikeout prop last night against this same lineup and were rewarded, so I’m going back to the well with Dodgers pitching at a playable number. 

Lastly, I’ll play Shohei Ohtani to smack 2+ total bases as one way to bank on the inevitable Butto regression. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Mets vs Dodgers odds

Mets vs Dodgers live odds

Mets vs Dodgers opening odds

• Run line: New York +1.5 (-130) | Los Angeles -1.5 (+110)
• Moneyline: New York +155 | Los Angeles -185
• Over/Under: Over 9 (-120) | Under 9 (+100)

Mets vs Dodgers spread and Over/Under analysis

• The Dodgers have won each of Stone’s previous two starts at home.
  
  
• The Mets have hit their first five innings team total Under in 17 of their last 26 away games.
  
  
• The Dodgers have hit the full game total Over in 81 of their last 145 games.

Mets vs Dodgers trend

The Dodgers have hit the run line in 74 of their last 131 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Dodgers

Mets vs Dodgers game info

Mets vs Dodgers latest injuries

Mets vs Dodgers weather

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