The Atlanta Braves will look to build on last night’s heroics when they host the Arizona Diamondbacks in the second game of their series. Our MLB odds have the Braves favored to win.
Travis d’Arnaud came through in the clutch on Friday night as the Braves won their home opener in walk-off fashion for the second year running. Their offense is clicking, and Max Fried will hope his first start was an aberration when he takes the mound. The Diamondbacks will turn to Brandon Pfaadt, who will need to give them innings after going deep into their bullpen in consecutive games.
Our Diamondbacks vs Braves MLB picks and predictions for Saturday, April 6 look at one Atlanta hitter who is in position to continue his strong start to the season.
Diamondbacks vs Braves odds
Diamondbacks vs Braves predictions
Orlando Arcia is having one heck of a start to the season for the Atlanta Braves. Through his first six games, the shortstop is hitting .458 and slugging .667 with a 1.167 OPS. And this comes after a strong spring training where he slugged .750 in 12 at-bats.
It helps that he’s racked up a solid contact rate of 13.3%, and with a pull rate of 66.7%, he’s seeing the ball very well. He’s also posting a line drive rate of nearly 27% with the lowest fly-ball rate of his career.
In Friday’s win for the Braves, Arcia recorded two hits and a walk in his five plate appearances. It’s his fourth multi-hit game already through six starts, with five of his 11 hits being two-baggers. That includes a double off D-backs righty reliever Miguel Castro.
With a price of +160 to get two or more bases again on Saturday, we can’t pass up that kind of value for Arcia to have another strong day at the plate. Especially considering the pitcher he’s facing is prime for regression after his first start.
Brandon Pfaadt had a quality outing for the Arizona Diamondbacks in his season debut, allowing just five hits over five innings. But it came against a Colorado Rockies club that is hitting just .234 and slugging .377 as a team. He’s going to get tested much harder by Atlanta, who lead the majors in slugging and average.
Pfaadt threw his fastball 44% of the time last season, was middle of the road in chase % and whiff %, and in the Bottom 5% in barrel rate. He also was 16th percentile in hard-hit rate, as he posted an ERA north of 5.00 for the season. In other words, his fastball hasn’t been hard to hit. Now he’s facing a hitter in Arcia with a .429 average on fastballs this year.
Arcia’s XBA is only .214 but he’s seeing and hitting the ball well. He’s hitting behind Michael Harris II, who is getting on base and is always a threat to run, which only helps his ability to get good pitches. And in 18 plate appearances vs. RHPs this season, Arcia has struck out just twice while notching eight hits including four doubles.
I don’t know how long Arcia can keep this up, but I’ll gladly take this kind of price until he cools off. Play him at either FanDuel or bet365 and do it quickly, as the price moved from +160 to +140 at DraftKings within an hour this morning.
My best bet: Orlando Arcia Over 1.5 total bases (+160 at FanDuel)
Diamondbacks vs Braves same-game parlay
Orlando Arcia Over 1.5 total bases
Marcell Ozuna Over 1.5 total bases
Braves moneyline
We’re backing the Braves to win, with Arcia and Marcell Ozuna both getting multiple bases to help lead the way.
Arizona is struggling to hold onto leads, and they’ve now had to go into extra innings in consecutive games. With closer Paul Sewald still on the injured list, I expect Pfaadt will need to go deeper than usual. Either the Braves get to him, or they get to the worn-down bullpen.
Ozuna is hitting just .214 this season vs RHP, but he’s slugging .643 with two HR in 14 at-bats. He’s notched at least one hit in five straight games, and has three extra-base hits in his last two starts.
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Diamondbacks vs Braves moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Braves are -1.5 on the run line, and -196 on the moneyline after being as high as -225 on Friday night.
- The Diamondbacks are 0-3 SU as underdogs this season.
- The total of 9.0 runs is fairly split, with the Under favored slightly at multiple books.
- Five of Atlanta’s six games this season have featured nine or more runs.
Trend to know
The Atlanta Braves have hit the team total Over in 36 of their last 55 games at home (+13.64 Units / 21% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Braves
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Diamondbacks vs Braves game info
| Location: | Truist Park, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Saturday, April 6, 2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ARID, BSSO |
Starting pitchers
Brandon Pfaadt (1-0, 1.80 ERA): Pfaadt will be getting his first look ever at the Braves, and wasn’t tested heavily in his first start. He surrendered just one run on five hits against the Rockies, striking out six batters in his 5 IP. In 2023, he had one of the best walk rates in baseball, but underperformed his xERA by nearly 1.5 runs and was often hit quite hard.
Max Fried (0-0, 40.50 ERA): After nearly escaping a bases-loaded jam in the first inning of his debut start, he was on the receiving end of one of the worst missed strike calls in history. It snowballed from there, as he failed to complete the inning after giving up two hits and walking three against the Phillies. Fried will look to get back to form after posting ERAs of 2.55 or better in each of the last two seasons.
