The Chicago Cubs (6-4) were on a roll with five straight wins but have fallen back to Earth by dropping two of their last three. They’ll look to get back on track with a road matchup against the San Diego Padres (6-7), who have won three of their last five. Game 1 was a wild contest in which the Cubs led 8-0 after five innings but eventually fell 9-8 after a late Padres surge.
What’s the way to play Game 2 from a betting perspective? Read on for my MLB picks and full Cubs vs. Padres predictions for Tuesday, April 9.
Cubs vs Padres prediction
My best bet
Padres moneyline (-155 at BetMGM) 50% boost available
My analysis
Due to a hamstring injury to ace Justin Steele, the Chicago Cubs are moving to either Drew Smyly or Ben Brown in the rotation. Smyly is a veteran left-hander who began the year in the bullpen. He had some moments of success in the rotation a year ago but ultimately wasn’t very effective with a 5.00 ERA and 4.96 FIP.
The San Diego Padres have hit lefties pretty well so far, posting a .340 wOBA and 126 wRC+. They have shown an ability to stay patient at the plate with a 13% walk rate against southpaws, which is noteworthy because Smyly has struggled to throw strikes (8.9% walk rate in 2023, 14.3% walk rate in 2024).
Chicago’s bullpen is taxed more than is ideal after imploding in Game 1, surrendering an 8-0 lead through five innings. Four different relievers were used and all allowed at least one earned run.
It’s likely we see some of rookie Ben Brown on the mound, and it’s possible that he even starts the game — the reporting isn’t clear on what the exact plan is, but both hurlers should be involved. The 6-foot-6 right-hander has allowed seven earned runs in 5 2/3 innings out of the pen, although most projection systems are more bullish with calls for an ERA in the low 4s.
On the flip side, San Diego counters with Joe Musgrove. The reliable 6-foot-5 right-hander has pieced together three very respectable campaigns with the Padres and rebounded nicely in his third start after getting shelled in the first two. He looked back to his usual self, holding the Cardinals to one earned run on five hits, one walk, and seven strikeouts across six innings.
Big Joe has found a way to effectively limit hard contact throughout his career with a 5.9% barrel rate. He’s sustained low barrel rates across all eight of his previous seasons, and that should help him tame a hot Cubs lineup.
The starting pitching advantage is huge for the Padres and there aren’t enough factors to make me look the other way. Give me the home team on the moneyline.
Cubs vs Padres same-game parlay
Padres moneyline
Jake Cronenworth 2+ total bases
Fernando Tatis 2+ total bases
Jake Cronenworth has been mashing with a 143 wRC+ and .387 wOBA across his first 56 plate appearances. He was a very useful bat across his first two and a half seasons in the Big Leagues but regressed with a 92 wRC+ and .301 wOBA in 2023.
That left projections for $80 million man all over the place heading into the year, but early indications are that he’s ready to get back to peak form. Whatever combination we see of Brown, Smyly, and a bullpen that just got shelled, this looks like a solid matchup.
Another San Diego bat that I’ll take to round out this SGP is Fernando Tatis Jr.. He homered in Game 1, his fourth of the season, and is swinging the stick well with a .903 OPS to rebound after last year’s disappointment (.771 OPS). Consider this an SGP composed of my hunting Padres bats on a rebound tour after last year’s debacle.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cubs vs Padres odds
Cubs vs Padres live odds
Cubs vs Padres opening odds
- Run line: Chicago +1.5 | San Diego -1.5
- Moneyline: Chicago +147 | San Diego -160
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Cubs vs Padres spread and Over/Under analysis
- This line opened at -160 at most books and appears headed toward the side of the favorite if early movement is any indication, although it’s still too early to tell. There’s still a -155 available as of Tuesday morning, and I wouldn’t play the number past -165.
- These teams have combined to go 2-8 O/U across the last 10 meetings.
- The Padres snapped a five-game Under streak with last night’s offensive breakout.
Cubs vs Padres trend
Chicago is just 1-3 away from home so far this season. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Padres
Cubs vs Padres game info
| Location: | PETCO Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date: | Tuesday, 4-9-2024 |
| First pitch: | 10:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MARQ, SDPA |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Ben Brown (0-0, 11.12 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher: | Joe Musgrove (1-1, 6.28 ERA) |
Cubs vs Padres latest injuries
Cubs vs Padres weather
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