The three-game series finale between the surging Chicago Cubs (7-4) and the water-treading San Diego Padres (6-8) goes down Wednesday night at Petco Park. Former Cubs prospect Dylan Cease starts for San Diego while veteran Kyle Hendricks gets the nod for Chicago.
Looking at MLB odds, the Padres are a -140 favorite while the total resides at 8. Read on for my MLB picks and full Cubs vs. Padres predictions on Wednesday, April 10.
Cubs vs Padres prediction
My best bet
Under 8 (-105 at bet365)
My analysis
Wednesday’s Game 3 at Petco Park is a pitching matchup between Kyle Hendricks for the Chicago Cubs and Dylan Cease for the San Diego Padres.
Cease is coming off an effective outing against the San Francisco Giants in which he allowed two earned runs on four hits and two walks while striking out seven across six innings. He tossed 102 pitches and looks fully stretched out as the Padres want to maximize the utility that they get from their star offseason acquisition.
One thing you love to see about the right-hander’s profile is that his velocity has returned after dropping off a bit in 2023. His average fastball velocity of 96.9 mph this year is slightly above his career average (96.6) and is over a full tick higher than last year (95.8). His ERA (4.58) and xERA (4.13) both took a significant step back last year, and the velocity dip was probably a factor.
Now that he’s back pumping the heat, it’s hard not to like Cease’s profile going forward. He had a stellar 2022 season (2.20 ERA, 2.70 xERA, 30.4% K-rate) and most of his peripherals are similar so far in 2024.
On the flip side of things, Hendricks has been blasted for 10 earned runs on 17 hits and four walks across his first 7 2/3 innings of 2024. Not great, Bob. That said, he’s a salty veteran who has a long track record of being an effective member of Chicago’s rotation, so we should expect at least a moderate rebound unless the wheels have completely fallen off.
His ERA finished above 3.50 just once in his first seven years in the league. He kept that number below 4.00 until back-to-back seasons in 2021 (4.77 ERA) and 2022 (4.80). One can see that regression has come with age — but that doesn’t necessarily mean the tank is completely empty.
Folks widely declared that the sky was falling for Hendricks after his 2022 season and yet he responded with a quietly effective 2023 campaign, notching a 3.74 ERA and 3.81 FIP across 24 starts. While his best days may be behind him, the veteran has proved time and time again to have a trick up his sleeve. Chicago’s staff has done a marvelous job this far by getting surprisingly productive starts from relatively unknown or unheralded arms, so I’m giving everyone the benefit of the doubt and am choosing not to overreact after two bad starts.
Looking back at recent history, these teams have hit the Under in nine of the last 10 meetings. The lone exception was Game 1 of this series in which the Padres pulled off an improbable comeback after falling behind 8-0 but scoring nine late runs to find a narrow win. In other words, the only Over came on a crazy outcome that is a bit of an outlier.
Give me the Under for Wednesday’s Game 3.
Cubs vs Padres same-game parlay
Under 8.5
Dylan Cease 2+ walks allowed
Nico Hoerner 1+ stolen bases
Chicago has proven patient at the plate with a 12.4% walk rate that trails only the New York Yankees. Cease is a great pitcher but issues plenty of free passes — his walk rate has been above 9.5% in all five of his previous seasons and his career number is 10.4%.
Nico Hoener is off to a slow start to the year but he’s a promising young player who hits for a high average (above .280 BA in each of the last three years) and swipes plenty of bags (43 SB in 2023). Cease is a pitcher that you can run on.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cubs vs Padres odds
Cubs vs Padres live odds
Cubs vs Padres opening odds
- Run line: Chicago +1.5 | San Diego -1.5
- Moneyline: Chicago +126 | San Diego -137
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Cubs vs Padres spread and Over/Under analysis
- San Diego has hit its team total Over in just 69 of its last 152 games.
- San Diego has hit the full game total Over in just 60 of its last 152 games.
- Chicago has hit the full game total Over in 22 of its last 36 games.
Cubs vs Padres trend
The teams have combined to go 1-9 O/U across the last 10 meetings. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Padres
Cubs vs Padres game info
| Location: | Petco Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date: | Wednesday, 4-10-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MARQ, SDPA |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Kyle Hendricks (0-1, 11.74 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher: | Dylan Cease (0-1, 3.38 ERA) |
Cubs vs Padres latest injuries
Cubs vs Padres weather
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