A potential 2024 World Series preview began on Monday when the Atlanta Braves drew first blood in a three-game series with the Houston Astros, winning 6-1.
Confidence is likely to be low in the home locker room when they send out slow-starting Hunter Brown to face the red-hot Reynaldo Lopez as underdogs in the MLB odds.
Find out why Matt Olson is featured in my Braves vs. Astros predictions as I make my best MLB picks for Tuesday, April 16.
Braves vs Astros prediction
My best bet
Matt Olson Over 1.5 total bases (+130 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Matt Olson was held in check for the most part last night, going 1-for-5 with two strikeouts, but I expect the Atlanta Braves slugger to make a significant impact in this one.
Olson has reached two or more total bases in nine of his first 15 games this year, and he could make it 10 of 16 with just one swing against Houston Astros starter Hunter Brown. Last Tuesday's start was one to forget for Brown, who was sent to the showers after recording just two outs and allowing nine runs on 11 hits to the Royals.
Brown was less than impressive in his prior start against the Rangers (five runs allowed over three innings), and he worked a high pitch count against the Yankees in holding them to four scoreless innings to kick off the 2024 season.
Olson is a "dead red" hitter, as he's batting .320 against the fastball this year, right in line with his 2023 average of .319. Brown's primary offering is his four-seamer (43.3%), and it's getting hammered by the opposition to the tune of a .412 OBA.
His fastball wasn't all that lethal last year either (.271 OBA), and he was far worse at home than he was on the road in 2023 (6.56 ERA at Minute Maid Park, 3.80 ERA everywhere else).
Brown can't afford to just pitch around Olson, as NL MVP threat Marcell Ozuna is tearing the cover off the ball in April and typically bats right behind Olson. While Olson is well off the pace in terms of duplicating the 54 homers he hit in 2023, his slugging percentage of .571 isn't far off last year's .604 mark.
Olson is due to start going deep again, but even if he doesn't do so tonight, it's easy to see him picking up a double or a pair of singles against Brown and the Astros' shoddy bullpen. The Matt Olson odds for him to reach two total bases are more than fair.
Braves vs Astros same-game parlay (SGP)
Matt Olson Over 1.5 total bases
Hunter Brown Under 5.5 strikeouts
Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 total bases
Continuing my fade of Brown, I'll add the Under on his line of 5.5 strikeouts tonight, simply because I don't think he'll last long enough on the bump to get to six Ks. He has a grand total of eight strikeouts through three starts this year and went below 5.5 Ks in eight of his final 11 starts of 2023.
It's not all bad news for the Astros tonight, as I expect Kyle Tucker to start turning his luck around. His xBA on fastballs this year is .382, but his actual BA is only .278. Reynaldo Lopez gives hitters a steady diet of fastballs (over 63% both last year and this year), and I expect Tucker to feast.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Braves vs Astros odds
Braves vs Astros live odds
Braves vs Astros opening odds
- Run line: Atlanta -1.5 | Houston +1.5
- Moneyline: Atlanta -114 | Houston +105
- Over/Under: Over 10 | Under 10
Braves vs Astros spread and Over/Under analysis
- While there's been little movement on the moneyline, the total took a hit from an opening line of 10 down to 9.5 across the board.
- Lopez's sharp start to the season should be taken with a grain of salt, as he faced a Mets offense that sleepwalked at the start of the year and the dreadful White Sox in his first two outings.
- Anticipate lots of bullpen action, which means advantage: Braves. Atlanta's bullpen ERA this year is 3.74 (12th), while Houston's is 5.45 (27th).
Braves vs Astros trend
The Astros have only won the first-five moneyline in 12 of their last 44 home games (-30.60 units / -46% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Astros
Braves vs Astros game info
| Location: | Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Tuesday, 4-16-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: |
TBS
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| Braves starting pitcher: | Reynaldo Lopez (1-0, 0.75 ERA) |
| Astros starting pitcher: | Hunter Brown (0-2, 16.44 ERA) |
Braves vs Astros latest injuries
Braves vs Astros weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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