The Toronto Blue Jays are hoping a West Coast road trip can help them get past an ugly series finale against the New York Yankees.
That road trip gets underway tonight when the Blue Jays open a three-game series against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park.
The MLB odds have the Jays as slight road underdogs for Game 1, going against a Pads team that has plated more runs than anyone in baseball heading into today.
Can Toronto’s bats keep up? I break it all down in my Blue Jays vs. Padres predictions and MLB picks for Friday, April 19.
Blue Jays vs Padres prediction
My best bet
Daulton Varsho Over 0.5 RBIs (+190 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
Yes, the manner in which the Toronto Blue Jays failed to sweep away the New York Yankees on Wednesday certainly left a bad taste in every fan's mouth. Surrendering four runs in the top of the ninth in a game to lose 6-4 is never pretty.
However, someone whose glass is half-full could look at these positive takeaways. The Blue Jays have now won three series in a row. The starting pitching has been great. And even some of the big bats are starting to get going.
But the biggest takeaway may be this: The Daulton Varsho breakout many have been hoping for might actually be starting to happen.
Varsho spent much of the offseason reworking his swing — everything from stance to swing path — and he’s starting to see some positive results. In fact, he’s positively on fire.
The Blue Jays outfielder has hits in six of his last eight games, and over the last six games, he's hitting .353 with a stupid 1.539 OPS, thanks to four home runs. He’s also driven in eight runs over that span.
Tonight, he’ll dig in against San Diego Padres starter Matt Waldron. The 27-year-old right-hander is making just his 10th career start, but note this: Waldron is a knuckleballer. He throws that along with a four-seamer, a sinker, a sweeper, and a cutter.
For those who don’t know, knuckleballs can be hard to square up, but when you do, they go far. For Waldron, it hasn’t been dancing as much as he would like, and the numbers through three starts this season haven’t been great. He ranks in the 37th percentile or lower in expected ERA and opponent expected batting average.
With Waldron’s propensity for giving up hits and the Blue Jays lineup doing a better job, in general, getting on base in front of Varsho lately, I like him to turn on one tonight and drive in another run.
Plus, with our Covers Prop Projections having Varsho at 0.5 RBIs, there's value in the Over at this number.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Bo Bichette Over 1.5 hits (+138 at PROLINE+)
Bo’s flow should play well on the West Coast and I’m not talking about his hair. Bichette now has hits in 10 of his last 11 games, putting up a .293 batting average during that stretch. These are much more Bo-like numbers following a slow start to the season.
I also think this matchup with Waldron is a good one for Bo Bichette. What makes the Blue Jays star shortstop such a great hitter is his willingness to hit the ball to all fields. It allows him to cover the whole plate and hit all types of pitches (including knuckleballs). While Waldron has surrendered 15 hits in 14 1/3 innings of work this season.
Speaking of innings, Waldron isn’t an innings eater in the same way R.A. Dickey was, averaging just under five innings per start this season. That means extended innings for a Padres bullpen that ranks 23rd in xFIP.
This all sets up well for Bo to have one of his patented multi-hit games.
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Blue Jays vs Padres odds
Blue Jays vs Padres live odds
Blue Jays vs Padres opening odds
- Run line: Toronto +1.5 -185 | San Diego -1.5 +155
- Moneyline: Toronto -105 | San Diego -115
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Blue Jays vs Padres spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Blue Jays opened this interleague matchup as slight -105 dogs, and this game has moved to basically a coin flip with Toronto now at -110.
- Yariel Rodriguez makes his second start for the Jays. He allowed one run on four hits while striking out six over 3 2/3 innings last time out. He'll be tasked with slowing down a Padres team putting up 5.2 runs per game this season.
- The total hits the board at 8.5, and that's where it remains as of early Friday afternoon.
- I would lean Over here. Both lineups are trending in the right direction, while both bullpens have struggled.
Blue Jays vs Padres trend
The Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 16 games for +8.80 Units and a 33% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Padres
Blue Jays vs Padres game info
| Location: | Petco Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date: | Friday, 4-19-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, SDPA |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Yariel Rodriguez (0-0, 2.45 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher: | Matt Waldron (0-1, 3.14 ERA) |
Blue Jays vs Padres latest injuries
Blue Jays vs Padres weather
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