Astros vs Rangers Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Houston Starts Strong on Sunday Night Baseball

The second week of the MLB season will conclude with the Texas Rangers and Houston Astros playing the second of a four-game series.

The Rangers took the first two games and have done so impressively. With 17 runs in two games, this series has highlighted the Rangers' hot offensive start as they'll enter this game third in baseball in runs per game. 

The Astros have been the opposite, entering this game at a putrid 2-7. Their season won't be decided in April, but Houston will want to grab these last two games of the series to avoid getting too far behind the eight ball.

Read on for my free MLB picks for Rangers vs. Astros on Sunday, April 7.

Astros vs Rangers odds

Astros vs Rangers predictions

If not for the Marlins' winless start, the Houston Astros would be a bigger story. On top of their record being bad, the Astros have played poorly. They need to finish this series strong and I'm backing them to do that today.

My best bet is the Astros, but the value of the first-five moneyline is better than the full-game moneyline, so I'm grabbing that at an excellent +125 price.

With a bet on Houston early, I'm backing a few things. The first is simply the narrative: the Astros are a perennially winning franchise with many of the elements of the World Series champion team intact from two seasons ago. At some point, they will get things together; what better time than down 2-0 in a series to its in-state rival?  

One of the other elements is the matchup at hand. I believe Dane Dunning will experience some regression in 2024. It's been coming for two seasons now.

He's overperformed his expected ERA in back-to-back seasons. Last year, he paired a 3.70 ERA with an expected ERA that was close to two runs higher. The year before was a similar story. And now, after one start and a tiny sample size, he pairs a 4.26 ERA with an expected ERA over 11.

The start, on the surface, was quite impressive. Dunning went into the seventh inning, giving up just one hit and one run before things cascaded.

"He's got good command, he's got four pitches working both sides, movement, and just does a great job," Texas Rangers manager Bruce Bochy said. "What a great job he did. He probably ran out of gas there a little bit in the seventh, trying to push him through that, but it's a well-played game."

Although his manager may have had the opinion of a "well-played game", the metrics suggest it should have been worse, as indicated by the expected ERA and wOBA.

I wonder if he gets as lucky in this spot. Dunning is a ground ball-reliant pitcher with about 75% of his pitches ending that way. The Astros have done well the past few seasons to get the ball in the air. Last season was another example of that when Houston finished near the bottom of the league in groundball rate.

Give me Houston early in a desperate spot.

My best bet: Astros first-five moneyline (+125 at bet365)

Astros vs Rangers same-game parlay

Astros first-five moneyline

Yordan Alvarez to hit a home run

+475 at bet365

We're pairing our Astros first-five moneyline their with its best hitter to go yard.

Yordan Alvarez is one of the few Astros hitters to get going this season, with two long balls already and a good game last night. Since the summation of my handicap is that Dunning's barrel problems should affect him more in 2024, few hitters are more well-equipped to take advantage of that than Alvarez.

It also doesn't hurt that he's had the best hard-hit rate against sinkers among Astros players for two straight seasons. That's a pitch Dunning leans on quite heavily. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Astros vs Rangers moneyline and Over/Under analysis

• The Rangers have recently owned this series with four straight wins. However, that mark has only given them a 6-4 advantage over its last 10 head-to-head games. That highlights how unbalanced this meeting had been before that run of four wins.
  
  
• Blindly betting on each of these teams to start the season illustrates the struggles one has had while highlighting the excellent start for the Rangers. A blind moneyline bet on the Rangers would have netted you +6.2 units so far, while the same bet on the Astros would have resulted in a loss of -6.6 units.
  
  
• The Astros have hit the first-five innings team total Over in 40 of their last 60 away games (+16.18 units / 22% ROI).

Trend to know

The Astros have cashed the moneyline in 50 of their last 77 away games (+19.20 units / 19% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Rangers

Astros vs Rangers game info

Starting pitchers

Ronel Blanco (1-0, 0.00 ERA): Well, that was one way for Blanco to open the season. His no-hitter in his first start against the Blue Jays marked one of the earliest in MLB history. Blanco was up and down last season, with barrel rate issues maligning his campaign. We'll see if those issues are fixed this season.

Dane Dunning (1-0, 4.26 ERA): Is this a regression year for Dunning? I argued above that it could be, but regardless, he began his 2024 campaign with a poor start by his standards. The Rays hit him hard for multiple home runs and three runs in six innings. That may not seem too poor, but the underlying metrics suggest it could have been much worse, and that's the concern.

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