The Houston Astros and Chicago Cubs begin a three-game series at Wrigley Field on Tuesday night. After being a perennial World Series contender for the last seven years, Houston is off to an ugly 7-16 start to begin this season. Meanwhile, the Cubs are 13-9 as they look to return to the postseason for the first time in four years.
Despite the Astros' slow start, MLB odds have them installed as slim -115 road favorites for this interleague clash, with the O/U listed at 10.5.
Here are my best free Astros vs. Cubs predictions and MLB picks for April 23.
Astros vs Cubs prediction
My best bet
Over 10.5 (-105 at DraftKings)
My analysis
Both teams are sending a pair of struggling sophomores to the mound tonight.
The Houston Astros are giving the ball to J.P. France, who has a 7.08 ERA with an OBA of .295 through four starts. Things don't get any batter behind France, with Houston's relievers pitching to a collective 5.36 ERA and the second-worst OBA (.274) in the majors.
Meanwhile, the Chicago Cubs are starting lefty Jordan Wicks, who has a 5.29 ERA with an OBA of .284 in four starts. This is an Astros lineup that has historically mashed against lefties like Wicks. With the exception of the COVID-shortened 2020 season, Houston has ranked in the Top 3 of the majors in OPS against southpaws in every season since 2017.
Although the Astros have struggled to generate runs lately, the analytics indicate that they're due for positive regression. They are sixth in the majors in hard-hit rate, while ranking second in expected batting average (.271) and fourth in expected slugging percentage (.435).
The Cubs are fifth in barrel rate and eighth in hard-hit rate. They are also sixth in runs per game (5.41), with that number ticking up to 6.20 at home. Don't overthink this one and fade both of these starters by taking the Over tonight.
Astros vs Cubs same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 10.5
Michael Busch Over 0.5 hits
Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 total bases
Although Michael Busch went hitless in his last game, he's still been red-hot, batting .364 with five multi-hit games in his last nine contests. Busch leads the Cubs with a batting average of .309 and looks likely to pick up a hit tonight against Houston's struggling pitchers.
Kyle Tucker is slugging .511 and is second on the Astros with 45 total bases. His peripheral numbers are even better, with his xSLG at .609 and his hard hit rate and barrel rate sitting in the Top 12th percentile. Tucker has generally enjoyed a reverse platoon split and has slugged .541 against southpaws since the start of the 2021 season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Astros vs Cubs odds
Astros vs Cubs live odds
Astros vs Cubs opening odds
- Run line: Houston -1.5 (+140) | Chicago +1.5 ( -160)
- Moneyline: Houston -120 | Chicago +100
- Over/Under: Over 10 (-110) | Under 10 (-110)
Astros vs Cubs spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Cubs opened as +100 underdogs but money has come in on them and they are now priced at -105, while the O/U has ticked up from 10 to 10.5.
- Houston entered this season with the highest win total (93.5) in the AL, but its pitching staff has been decimated by injuries and has the second-worst ERA in the majors (5.10).
- The Astros were shutout in their last game, and they are 1-5 in their last six contests while plating just 2.67 runs/game during that span.
- While both starters have struggled, their xERA numbers (4.88 for France and 4.91 for Wicks) are significantly better than their ERA and are more in line with their stats as rookies last year.
Astros vs Cubs trend
The Astros have hit the game total Over in 37 of their last 61 games (+15.00 Units / 22% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Cubs
Astros vs Cubs game info
| Location: | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Tuesday, 4-23-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TBS |
| Astros starting pitcher: | JP France (0-2, 7.08 ERA) |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Jordan Wicks (0-2, 5.29 ERA) |
Astros vs Cubs latest injuries
Astros vs Cubs weather
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