The first major championship of the year is here and I’m rounding out my 2024 Masters predictions with longshots from down the golf odds lists.
Because World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is such a short favorite in the Masters odds, there are a number of excellent players with inflated prices to target this week.
There haven’t been many longshot champions at Augusta National over the years, but there have already been five first-time winners this PGA Tour season and the favorite hasn’t won the Masters since Tiger Woods donned the Green Jacket for a fourth time in 2005.
2024 Masters sleeper picks
- Sam Burns to win outright (+8,000 at FanDuel)
- Adam Scott to win outright (+9,000 at BetMGM)
- Lucas Glover to win outright (+40,000 at FanDuel)
- Sam Burns Top 30 (+100 at DraftKings)
- Adam Scott Top 30 (+115 at bet365)
- Lucas Glover Top 40 (+115 at bet365)
Picks were made on April 9 at 11:30 p.m. ET.
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2024 Masters sleeper predictions
Sam Burns to win outright (+8,000)
While the five-time PGA Tour winner hasn’t been a factor in majors to this point of his career, Burns has the all-around game to compete at Augusta National and he’s coming off a respectable T29 finish in the 2023 Masters.
Burns also rattled off four consecutive Top-10 results ahead of the Florida Swing and ranks ninth in this field in true strokes gained putting and a respectable 25th in true strokes gained tee-to-green across his past 20 measured rounds. Additionally, I’m encouraged with Burns ranking ninth in total driving this season, which is a huge climb from sitting in 43rd last year and 83rd in 2021-22.
Fairways and greens are the perfect recipe for him to be successful this week because his putting will lead to more circles than squares on the card. The +8,000 FanDuel odds are also a great number and present a massive positive expected value of 94% compared to the +4,000 Caesars price.
Pick: Sam Burns to win outright (+8,000 at FanDuel, 0.25 units)
Pick: Sam Burns Top 30 (+100 at DraftKings)
Adam Scott to win outright (+9,000)
The 2013 Masters champ can golf the ball around Augusta National. Scott has played the weekend 14 straight years with 11 Top-40 results. His recent run includes a T48 in 2022 and a solo fifth in 2021 but I like his form after a T14 showing at the Valero where he finished fifth in true strokes gained putting.
Add a fall heater that included four consecutive worldwide Top 10s and a T20-T8-T19 stretch during the California Swing, and Scott has been sneaky good without having his tee-to-green game and improved putting working in unison for an entire tournament.
In particular, Scott has lost strokes on approach across his past two events, so returning to form in that department would pave the way to another strong Masters showing.
Again, the importance of price shopping is on full display with Scott priced as short as +6,600 through Betway, so there’s a positive expected value of 36% attached to the +9,000 BetMGM odds.
Pick: Adam Scott to win outright (+9,000 at BetMGM, 0.25 units)
Pick: Adam Scott Top 30 (+115 at bet365)
Lucas Glover to win outright (+40,000)
I can’t look past this lotto-ticket price for Lucas Glover. There are all kinds of boxes he fails to check, including an underwhelming Augusta National track record, but he’s also in the midst of a career resurgence and strikes the ball with the best.
He ranks seventh in true strokes gained on approach, 10th in true strokes gained around-the-green, and 11th in true strokes gained tee-to-green across his past 34 measured rounds. Add ranking second in driving accuracy, and those are four important boxes he does check. He’s also won twice with another 12 Top-40 finishes across his past 20 starts.
This will also be Glover’s 10th trip to the Masters and he finished T30 last year — his best finish since a T20 in 2007. The +40,0000 FanDuel odds are twice the +20,000 BetRivers number, and the difference is a tidy positive expected value of 100%.
Pick: Lucas Glover to win outright (+40,000 at FanDuel, 0.1 units)
Pick: Lucas Glover Top 40 (+115 at bet365)
