FINAL YTD (NFL): 71-44-4 YTD
NFL PLAYOFFS: 10-6 ATS
Sorry, I know I'm late to the party. I didn't wait until this moment just to wait but I had an incredible event happen with my business and then this weekend I moved houses. But this will be my second largest play of the year, and have every intention of finalizing an AMAZING NFL season with it:
OVER 23 FH (KC/SF): I can start by telling you that SF is 4th and KC is 6th in FH scoring. I see this game playing out very similarly to the Super Bowl of last year so I expect a higher scoring game personally. This 23 has been a key FH number all year and even not getting hit with the hook is very valuable. This was also the FH total last time out for KC against Baltimore and they too got over it, just barely. But my expectation from having watched both teams tirelessly during the year that SF will come out and score, but also give up points in the FH. KC has been here before, don't kid yourself how valuable experience can be, so they won't be as jittery as SF might.
There is also the psychological edge here which I give to the Chiefs. I personally cannot go against Mahomes and I see the game line ticking up so I was curious as to the directional betting for SF. I called up a friend, whom I've cited many times before, who works at a Vegas sports book and he said there is so much going in Vegas, even just concerts and foreign travelers coming in or conventions, people who aren't even there for the game, that they just get sucked into betting the game, which drives more money to the book. And with such a heavy SF influence, more of that money has flowed to the Niners.
Kansas City has been tested, and I think he adversity this year will help them here. They have been somehow looked at as the underdogs all playoff season yet, if you think about it, they very much are the reigning champions. Have things changed, sure. But they went through the two toughest teams I feel in the AFC, on the road albeit, and now face a team that I feel has regressed over the past months.
I think one of the keys here will be the KC pass rush, who did so well to contain Lamar Jackson, limiting the time that Purdy will have in the pocket. I think that is very key to the success of the KC defensive scheme. They are susceptible in the middle of the field and I'm guessing George Kittle and company will find some space. The TE here is especially a mismatch as the Chiefs haven't been great against TE's.
But ask yourself, would you go against Brady at this point in his career, in this type of game. Or Montana? Well Mahomes wants to achieve that greatness, he is very open and vocal about that. And now with one game left, I don't see him coming out any other way than focused. He doesn't care about celebrities because he IS the celebrity. I won't be upset if Purdy can prove me wrong. But Jalen Hurts couldn't last year and I think this game plays out very similarly to that one. For that reason, there is no other team for me to back other than KANSAS CITY (+2), and not b/c it's Mahomes getting points but because the Chiefs win when getting points in the playoffs. And you can't deny Andy Reid is responsible for much of that.
It's been a great season, and a really great playoffs. I made a mistake or two I wish I could reverse but other than that happy to those I might have helped and hoping others have also had a great season. Do your own research, keep comments positive. As always, tail or fade, good luck to all...