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MLB system releases...

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Posted: #1726

Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

Quote Originally Posted by moneylog:

Any pod for today?
 
Thanks

  Rangers+124 ML

SN, I have been attempting to handicap your picks each day and compare my results to yours.  Today I am not coming up with the same results for the Rangers game and was hoping you could shed some light on that pick for me.

Is there a specific situational or statistical analysis that is giving you a strong lean on Texas?  I imagine Reineke's first start may have something to do with it, but if so I would have thought your play would be the 1st five innings as opposed to the game.

What am I missing here?

 
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Posted: #1727
Quote Originally Posted by UsaSurfer:

SN, I have been attempting to handicap your picks each day and compare my results to yours.  Today I am not coming up with the same results for the Rangers game and was hoping you could shed some light on that pick for me.

Is there a specific situational or statistical analysis that is giving you a strong lean on Texas?  I imagine Reineke's first start may have something to do with it, but if so I would have thought your play would be the 1st five innings as opposed to the game.

What am I missing here?

this game was capped purely on situational concept, based on a lack of Oaklands SP stats, and MLB experience on the mound, Padilla has consistently lowered his ERA over his last 7 starts, as is his strike out increase...taken in hand, last nights final results, and the Rangers dominance offensively, and of course +124 ML a perfect scenario for a DOG win, going a step farther, this game also fits the criteria of dog RL -1.5 @ +224 RL  WATCH FOR DRAMATIC LINE MOVEMENT ....

 

SN

 
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Posted: #1728
SN, Great insight, thanks.
 
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Posted: #1729
SN,

My books have the 1st 5innning At/SD 3.5 would you still bet it?
 
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Posted: #1730
Sorry SN, my books have teh Ranger Favor now....
 
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Posted: #1731
dH==
Quote Originally Posted by DarkHorse21:



The sabermetrics method, especially as used through RL plays, is unquestionably  valid and valuable.  And I backtracked the RL plays earlier -at 8 units a piece- for a large profit.

However, if you can explain the bet sizing formula that has more recently been included, please do.  If, on the other hand, you can't explain how this formula works, then it is not, as you say, 'all there'. 

What does each number in that formula stand for, and how does it apply to each bet for that day?

Until that is made abundantly clear, I'm not quite ready to assume that sabermetrics expertise also translates into bet sizing expertise. 

Respectfully,




DH,

As I understand it, there are 4 parts to this handicapping method:

1.) Sabermetrics attached to MLB stats,
2.) attached to Situational Analysis,
3.) attached to applied Units,
4.) attached to PAC symbol.

The Position Adjusted Classification (PAC) formula provided for those 2 days already had the units attached to individual games. That is how those numbers came about...

for example, on Sun, add up all the dog odds, that is where the +833 came form, the fav odds, -250 is the number...if you work backwards form that formula through the plays you can assign units.....and get the other numbers........294.1/(89.1+294.1)=76.7%

GL MME





 
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Posted: #1732
MLB system releases Wed, August 5th, 2009 Base_Runs formula
 
Mets+134 ML
Astros-121 ML
Phillies-152 ML
RedSox+119 ML
Rangers+124 ML
 
Tigers+112 RL
 
ATL/SD+110  UNDER 4  5innings
FLA/WAS+112  UNDER 4.5  5innings
 
 
eightPACformulated  (R&R initiated, and in effect)*
projected ratio: 6/8  75%
 
 
SN
 
*those sitting at the same table, please take the R&R formula in reference; with attachment to todays card.
 
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Posted: #1733
[+883/-250 (+533) [294.1 ^3^ 89.1 (205)] +76.7% / -23.2% (53.2)] 
 
I was able to figure out the +833 and -250 numbers previously, but where did [294.1^3^89.1 (205)] come from?
 
also, i assumed that the +76.7%/-23.2% (53.2) comes from the difference between 100% max and 76.7%, but where did 76.7% come from?
 
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Posted: #1734
Quote Originally Posted by LT3976:

[+883/-250 (+533) [294.1 ^3^ 89.1 (205)] +76.7% / -23.2% (53.2)] 
 
I was able to figure out the +833 and -250 numbers previously, but where did [294.1^3^89.1 (205)] come from?
 
also, i assumed that the +76.7%/-23.2% (53.2) comes from the difference between 100% max and 76.7%, but where did 76.7% come from?

Good question...it's derived from the (hidden) 383(294+89) then compounded into %'s] then decimaled minus to 53.2] the read then becomes substantial....best regards

SN

 
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Posted: #1735
divide ^3^ into +883=294.1 ] into -250=89.1 ] 205 thus, becomes the difference. this is basic, depending on your comprehension level of math, and sheparding technique of applied formula's, you may continue for a more in-depth read, or accept the 'basic'..to continue:
 
+883 becomes 8.83
-250 becomes 2.50
+533 stays 533 exclude + 
 294 becomes 29.4
 89 becomes 8.9
 205 stays the same
+76.7%  becomes 7.6
-23.2% becomes 2.3
53.2 becomes 53.2%
 
SN
 
 
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Posted: #1736
RedSox+136 ML (line increase)
 
SN
 
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Posted: #1737
 GL Kemosabe
 
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Posted: #1738
ApacheM  keep it tight[R&R in progression]
 
SN
 
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Posted: #1739
pitching change in texas game - reineke in for dallas braden - line now at Texas -129.
 
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Posted: #1740
picking the rangers without Cruz and without Kinsler makes alot of sense
 
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Posted: #1741
Quote Originally Posted by jasonr:

picking the rangers without Cruz and without Kinsler makes alot of sense



 
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Posted: #1742
your stats and formulas are based on the Texas rangers with their 2 best hitters.  When those two hitters don't play you can't rely on the formulas to predict the outcome of the game
 
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Posted: #1743
Well,  2 hours after game start..here you are again. Confrontational. Ready to prove others wrong.   Please refer to the entire thread to learn that it is not the formula that predicts the outcome of the game as you suggested.. If you read the thread then you would know that:

1.) Sabermetrics attached to MLB stats,
2.) attached to Situational Analysis,
3.) attached to applied Units,
4.) attached to PAC symbol.

 is the entire equation, and it seems you have just hit a single. You are not making friends here with your entrance into this thread.


 
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Posted: #1744
MME   -    
 
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Posted: #1745
MME -     Know one can be that ignorant. What we have here is a S%#* stirrer. Go away little boy you are a nuisance. 
 
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Posted: #1746
BLKN


 
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Posted: #1747
[Quote: Originally Posted by sports_Network]
MLB system releases Wed, August 5th, 2009 Base_Runs formula
 
Mets+134 ML...win
Astros-121 ML...loss
Phillies-152 ML...win
RedSox+119 ML...loss
Rangers+124 ML...scratched*
 
Tigers+112 RL...win
 
ATL/SD+110  UNDER 4  5innings...loss
FLA/WAS+112  UNDER 4.5  5innings...loss
 
 
eightPACformulated  (R&R initiated, and in effect)*
projected ratio: 6/8  75%
 
 
SN
 
*those sitting at the same table, please take the R&R formula in reference; with attachment to todays card.
 
 
 
FINAL RESULTS:
3-4
units:+6.04
 
 
* line reversal,(dog to favorite) a change in starting line-ups, the A's pre-game SP change, are all factors+ involved. understanding; the publishing was posted 8 hrs in advance for convenience, and documentation purposes..Their for, no play, no wager, no action applied...scratched from the final card...
 
 
 
R&R status:-16units
 
SN
 
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Posted: #1748
Quote Originally Posted by shapati:

pitching change in texas game - reineke in for dallas braden - line now at Texas -129.

thx for the update info.....

SN

 

 

 
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Posted: #1749
MME
 
 
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Posted: #1750
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