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MLB system releases...

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Magic_Shark
Magic_Shark
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Posted: Aug. 4, 2009 - 5:32 PM ET #1701

SN,
 
Did you have any issues sending the PM
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SN,
 
Did you have any issues sending the PM
 
swamppdonkey77
swamppdonkey77
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Posted: Aug. 4, 2009 - 10:27 PM ET #1702

Just looked at MLB rule book. Ball shall  be ruled dead when ball falls in fair territory and bounces out of the field of play, or when ball is unplayable due to design of park or fence. The ball landing in the bullpen gear of bosox should not have been ruled dead. Tampa and those of us on Tampa got shafted! Hopefully a two-run walk-off will save us.
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Just looked at MLB rule book. Ball shall  be ruled dead when ball falls in fair territory and bounces out of the field of play, or when ball is unplayable due to design of park or fence. The ball landing in the bullpen gear of bosox should not have been ruled dead. Tampa and those of us on Tampa got shafted! Hopefully a two-run walk-off will save us.
 
swamppdonkey77
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Posted: Aug. 4, 2009 - 10:31 PM ET #1703

Pardon me, it was the Rays bullpen.
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Pardon me, it was the Rays bullpen.
 
jasonr
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Posted: Aug. 4, 2009 - 10:36 PM ET #1704

Man this hurts guys....  This is like the worst night in the history of sports wagering.. 
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Man this hurts guys....  This is like the worst night in the history of sports wagering.. 
 
swamppdonkey77
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Posted: Aug. 5, 2009 - 12:10 AM ET #1705

Thank you  Longoria!
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Thank you  Longoria!
 
RaleighDevil
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Posted: Aug. 5, 2009 - 12:15 AM ET #1706

As a Yankees fan, I say you should buy Longoria a drink next time you see him. That's a rare extra inning win on the RL.
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As a Yankees fan, I say you should buy Longoria a drink next time you see him. That's a rare extra inning win on the RL.
 
jasonr
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Posted: Aug. 5, 2009 - 1:13 AM ET #1707

ok a 2-8 day so I'm sure the two wins he had 55 units each on, and only 2 units each on the 8 losses... so a solid day regardless

There wouldn't be this question if he just indicated how many units he had on them before the game. Oh but that's too much to ask.

It's better to claim you are up a billion units by announcing how many units you had on each FOLLOWING the game.
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ok a 2-8 day so I'm sure the two wins he had 55 units each on, and only 2 units each on the 8 losses... so a solid day regardless

There wouldn't be this question if he just indicated how many units he had on them before the game. Oh but that's too much to ask.

It's better to claim you are up a billion units by announcing how many units you had on each FOLLOWING the game.
 
snyder9
snyder9
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Posted: Aug. 5, 2009 - 1:53 AM ET #1708

Quote Originally Posted by jasonr:

ok a 2-8 day so I'm sure the two wins he had 55 units each on, and only 2 units each on the 8 losses... so a solid day regardless

There wouldn't be this question if he just indicated how many units he had on them before the game. Oh but that's too much to ask.

It's better to claim you are up a billion units by announcing how many units you had on each FOLLOWING the game.


Give it a rest with the whining.
I don't know how many units you're playing per game but if you followed even the basic unit attachment mentioned earlier in this thread you should be up at least 200 units from Jun onwards.

I estimate around a 20 unit loss today. Maybe slightly more/less.
And guess what, he's had 20 unit loss before and that hasn't stopped him from ending up with one profitable month after the other.

Besides, you should only be complaining about today if SN forced you to tail him. It was your decision.




On another note,
SN - is there something you found in your calculations that gave the leans for the under plays in the first five innings. From past (painful) experiences, I've found the 1st half under bets to have a very high risk to reward ratio.
For the most part, you sometimes only get half the full game total but 1 whole extra inning to bet with.
For eg: Game total 8 (to be played over 18 half innings or 17 if game goes for 8.5 only)
Half total 4 (to be played over 10 half innings)
 
For the 1st half over, this works in your favor - but not for the under as the teams have more chances to score.
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Quote Originally Posted by jasonr:

ok a 2-8 day so I'm sure the two wins he had 55 units each on, and only 2 units each on the 8 losses... so a solid day regardless

There wouldn't be this question if he just indicated how many units he had on them before the game. Oh but that's too much to ask.

It's better to claim you are up a billion units by announcing how many units you had on each FOLLOWING the game.


Give it a rest with the whining.
I don't know how many units you're playing per game but if you followed even the basic unit attachment mentioned earlier in this thread you should be up at least 200 units from Jun onwards.

I estimate around a 20 unit loss today. Maybe slightly more/less.
And guess what, he's had 20 unit loss before and that hasn't stopped him from ending up with one profitable month after the other.

Besides, you should only be complaining about today if SN forced you to tail him. It was your decision.




On another note,
SN - is there something you found in your calculations that gave the leans for the under plays in the first five innings. From past (painful) experiences, I've found the 1st half under bets to have a very high risk to reward ratio.
For the most part, you sometimes only get half the full game total but 1 whole extra inning to bet with.
For eg: Game total 8 (to be played over 18 half innings or 17 if game goes for 8.5 only)
Half total 4 (to be played over 10 half innings)
 
For the 1st half over, this works in your favor - but not for the under as the teams have more chances to score.
 
sports_Network
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Posted: Aug. 5, 2009 - 4:40 AM ET #1709

[Quote: Originally Posted by sports_Network]
MLB system releases Tuesday 08/04/09 Base_Runs formula...
 
Tigers+105 RL
Rays+188 RL
Angels+132 RL
Rangers+140 RL
Braves+110 RL
Pirates+158 RL
 
MIL/LAD+110  UNDER 4  5innings
SF/HOU+112  UNDER 4.5  5innings
StL/NYM+105  UNDER 4  5innings
COL/PHI+115  UNDER 5  5innings
 
 
tenPACformulated
projected ratio: 7/10  70%
 
SN

FINAL RESULTS

2-8

units:-22.16

 

 

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[Quote: Originally Posted by sports_Network]
MLB system releases Tuesday 08/04/09 Base_Runs formula...
 
Tigers+105 RL
Rays+188 RL
Angels+132 RL
Rangers+140 RL
Braves+110 RL
Pirates+158 RL
 
MIL/LAD+110  UNDER 4  5innings
SF/HOU+112  UNDER 4.5  5innings
StL/NYM+105  UNDER 4  5innings
COL/PHI+115  UNDER 5  5innings
 
 
tenPACformulated
projected ratio: 7/10  70%
 
SN

FINAL RESULTS

2-8

units:-22.16

 

 

 
sports_Network
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Posted: Aug. 5, 2009 - 4:55 AM ET #1710

snyder9, I was capitalizing on a 4-0 run that was produced from a strong read in that direction, it fizzled last night..2-8, that's baseball..no excuses, no explanations..it's not over till it's over!
best regards
SN
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snyder9, I was capitalizing on a 4-0 run that was produced from a strong read in that direction, it fizzled last night..2-8, that's baseball..no excuses, no explanations..it's not over till it's over!
best regards
SN
 
kbit
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Posted: Aug. 5, 2009 - 5:22 AM ET #1711

Well I know you had a rough day SN. But I thank you for throwing out the Braves pick. It pretty much solidified my position on taking their RL. Thank you from this "bottom feeder".
 
Just curious as to why you threw ApacheM the Pirates pick and not the Braves when you said that was your biggest lean.
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Well I know you had a rough day SN. But I thank you for throwing out the Braves pick. It pretty much solidified my position on taking their RL. Thank you from this "bottom feeder".
 
Just curious as to why you threw ApacheM the Pirates pick and not the Braves when you said that was your biggest lean.
 
sports_Network
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Posted: Aug. 5, 2009 - 6:49 AM ET #1712

Quote Originally Posted by kbit:

Well I know you had a rough day SN. But I thank you for throwing out the Braves pick. It pretty much solidified my position on taking their RL. Thank you from this "bottom feeder".
 
Just curious as to why you threw ApacheM the Pirates pick and not the Braves when you said that was your biggest lean.

your welcome, regarding the Braves RL win.. congratulations on your play as well...The Pirates were a pure value play, It just wasn't thier time (inferior teams are capped for value, and value alone)   Your lengthy participation has seen many different changes in your approach, and understanding of concept, and application to insight. Bottomfeeder is a 'term' not a degrading label. I personally don't identify you as one(bottomfeeder) your commentary has always been that of respect, but at times becomes abstract with opinion, other than having stats to back your statements..please continue with your prosperity, stay positive, what goes around, comes around...

watch the R&R on this one, benificial to yourself....

SN

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Quote Originally Posted by kbit:

Well I know you had a rough day SN. But I thank you for throwing out the Braves pick. It pretty much solidified my position on taking their RL. Thank you from this "bottom feeder".
 
Just curious as to why you threw ApacheM the Pirates pick and not the Braves when you said that was your biggest lean.

your welcome, regarding the Braves RL win.. congratulations on your play as well...The Pirates were a pure value play, It just wasn't thier time (inferior teams are capped for value, and value alone)   Your lengthy participation has seen many different changes in your approach, and understanding of concept, and application to insight. Bottomfeeder is a 'term' not a degrading label. I personally don't identify you as one(bottomfeeder) your commentary has always been that of respect, but at times becomes abstract with opinion, other than having stats to back your statements..please continue with your prosperity, stay positive, what goes around, comes around...

watch the R&R on this one, benificial to yourself....

SN

 
sports_Network
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Posted: Aug. 5, 2009 - 7:00 AM ET #1713

swamppdonkey77
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swamppdonkey77
 
sports_Network
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Posted: Aug. 5, 2009 - 7:07 AM ET #1714

Quote Originally Posted by RaleighDevil:

As a Yankees fan, I say you should buy Longoria a drink next time you see him. That's a rare extra inning win on the RL.

let's say very rare..but as you wholeheartely know, that's baseball, pure and simple.. "it's not over til' it's over" 

best to you always

SN

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Quote Originally Posted by RaleighDevil:

As a Yankees fan, I say you should buy Longoria a drink next time you see him. That's a rare extra inning win on the RL.

let's say very rare..but as you wholeheartely know, that's baseball, pure and simple.. "it's not over til' it's over" 

best to you always

SN

 
sports_Network
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Posted: Aug. 5, 2009 - 7:11 AM ET #1715

Magic_Shark  no, not at all 
 
SN
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Magic_Shark  no, not at all 
 
SN
 
sports_Network
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Posted: Aug. 5, 2009 - 8:37 AM ET #1716

 
 
                                         Wed, August 5th, 2009
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                                         Wed, August 5th, 2009
 
MeMyselfandEye
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Posted: Aug. 5, 2009 - 8:39 AM ET #1717

jasonr...Unit attachment isn't  that difficult for each individual handicapper. - if you would read the thread, it's all in there. Its takes time, and the correct application to understand.  I like the fact SN does not post his units.  If you  have an understanding of the ideas presented here you would already know the unit attachment...and for those that are 'bottomfeeders", it really upsets them. 

I bet there have been 50 posts through tthe entire thread asking "Why doesn't SN attach units?"  For those that have the understanding, the knowledge, the patience to learn, it's all there.

Historical Results:

Fri   7/24    +14.40
Sat  7/25    +13.84
Sun 7/26     -11.60
Mon 7/27    +12.20
Tues7/28    +18.42
Wed7/29     +2.38
Thurs7/30    +36.38
Fri    7/31    +20.52
Sat 8/1         +8.84
Sun 8/2       +15.45
Mon 8/3       + 3.85
Tues           -22.16

That is +112.52 Units in the last 12 days...
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jasonr...Unit attachment isn't  that difficult for each individual handicapper. - if you would read the thread, it's all in there. Its takes time, and the correct application to understand.  I like the fact SN does not post his units.  If you  have an understanding of the ideas presented here you would already know the unit attachment...and for those that are 'bottomfeeders", it really upsets them. 

I bet there have been 50 posts through tthe entire thread asking "Why doesn't SN attach units?"  For those that have the understanding, the knowledge, the patience to learn, it's all there.

Historical Results:

Fri   7/24    +14.40
Sat  7/25    +13.84
Sun 7/26     -11.60
Mon 7/27    +12.20
Tues7/28    +18.42
Wed7/29     +2.38
Thurs7/30    +36.38
Fri    7/31    +20.52
Sat 8/1         +8.84
Sun 8/2       +15.45
Mon 8/3       + 3.85
Tues           -22.16

That is +112.52 Units in the last 12 days...
 
sports_Network
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Posted: Aug. 5, 2009 - 9:42 AM ET #1718

MLB system releases Wed, August 5th, 2009 Base_Runs formula
 
Mets+134 ML
Astros-121 ML
Phillies-152 ML
RedSox+119 ML
Rangers+124 ML
 
Tigers+112 RL
 
ATL/SD+110  UNDER 4  5innings
FLA/WAS+112  UNDER 4.5  5innings
 
 
eightPACformulated  (R&R initiated, and in effect)*
projected ratio: 6/8  75%
 
 
SN
 
*those sitting at the same table, please take the R&R formula in reference; with attachment to todays card.
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MLB system releases Wed, August 5th, 2009 Base_Runs formula
 
Mets+134 ML
Astros-121 ML
Phillies-152 ML
RedSox+119 ML
Rangers+124 ML
 
Tigers+112 RL
 
ATL/SD+110  UNDER 4  5innings
FLA/WAS+112  UNDER 4.5  5innings
 
 
eightPACformulated  (R&R initiated, and in effect)*
projected ratio: 6/8  75%
 
 
SN
 
*those sitting at the same table, please take the R&R formula in reference; with attachment to todays card.
 
sports_Network
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Posted: Aug. 5, 2009 - 9:46 AM ET #1719

MME stats don't lie, thx for your most appreciative commentary
 
 
SN
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MME stats don't lie, thx for your most appreciative commentary
 
 
SN
 
moneylog
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Posted: Aug. 5, 2009 - 9:52 AM ET #1720

Any pod for today?
 
Thanks
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Any pod for today?
 
Thanks
 
DarkHorse21
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Posted: Aug. 5, 2009 - 10:15 AM ET #1721

Quote Originally Posted by MeMyselfandEye:

jasonr...Unit attachment isn't  that difficult for each individual handicapper. - if you would read the thread, it's all in there. Its takes time, and the correct application to understand.  I like the fact SN does not post his units.  If you  have an understanding of the ideas presented here you would already know the unit attachment...and for those that are 'bottomfeeders", it really upsets them. 

I bet there have been 50 posts through tthe entire thread asking "Why doesn't SN attach units?"  For those that have the understanding, the knowledge, the patience to learn, it's all there.

Historical Results:

Fri   7/24    +14.40
Sat  7/25    +13.84
Sun 7/26     -11.60
Mon 7/27    +12.20
Tues7/28    +18.42
Wed7/29     +2.38
Thurs7/30    +36.38
Fri    7/31    +20.52
Sat 8/1         +8.84
Sun 8/2       +15.45
Mon 8/3       + 3.85
Tues           -22.16

That is +112.52 Units in the last 12 days...


The sabermetrics method, especially as used through RL plays, is unquestionably  valid and valuable.  And I backtracked the RL plays earlier -at 8 units a piece- for a large profit.

However, if you can explain the bet sizing formula that has more recently been included, please do.  If, on the other hand, you can't explain how this formula works, then it is not, as you say, 'all there'. 

What does each number in that formula stand for, and how does it apply to each bet for that day?

Until that is made abundantly clear, I'm not quite ready to assume that sabermetrics expertise also translates into bet sizing expertise. 

Respectfully,


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Quote Originally Posted by MeMyselfandEye:

jasonr...Unit attachment isn't  that difficult for each individual handicapper. - if you would read the thread, it's all in there. Its takes time, and the correct application to understand.  I like the fact SN does not post his units.  If you  have an understanding of the ideas presented here you would already know the unit attachment...and for those that are 'bottomfeeders", it really upsets them. 

I bet there have been 50 posts through tthe entire thread asking "Why doesn't SN attach units?"  For those that have the understanding, the knowledge, the patience to learn, it's all there.

Historical Results:

Fri   7/24    +14.40
Sat  7/25    +13.84
Sun 7/26     -11.60
Mon 7/27    +12.20
Tues7/28    +18.42
Wed7/29     +2.38
Thurs7/30    +36.38
Fri    7/31    +20.52
Sat 8/1         +8.84
Sun 8/2       +15.45
Mon 8/3       + 3.85
Tues           -22.16

That is +112.52 Units in the last 12 days...


The sabermetrics method, especially as used through RL plays, is unquestionably  valid and valuable.  And I backtracked the RL plays earlier -at 8 units a piece- for a large profit.

However, if you can explain the bet sizing formula that has more recently been included, please do.  If, on the other hand, you can't explain how this formula works, then it is not, as you say, 'all there'. 

What does each number in that formula stand for, and how does it apply to each bet for that day?

Until that is made abundantly clear, I'm not quite ready to assume that sabermetrics expertise also translates into bet sizing expertise. 

Respectfully,


 
sports_Network
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Posted: Aug. 5, 2009 - 10:59 AM ET #1722

Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

 
  Saturday, 01/08/09
 [+715/-785 (-70) [143 ^5^ 157 (14)] +47.6% / -52.3% (5.2)]
 
  Sunday, 02/08/09
 [+883/-250 (+533) [294.1 ^3^ 89.1 (205)] +76.7% / -23.2% (53.2)] 
 
Attached to FINAL RESULTS in advance....PACsymbol 'read' formula.
 
 
SN
 
 
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Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

 
  Saturday, 01/08/09
 [+715/-785 (-70) [143 ^5^ 157 (14)] +47.6% / -52.3% (5.2)]
 
  Sunday, 02/08/09
 [+883/-250 (+533) [294.1 ^3^ 89.1 (205)] +76.7% / -23.2% (53.2)] 
 
Attached to FINAL RESULTS in advance....PACsymbol 'read' formula.
 
 
SN
 
 
 
sports_Network
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Posted: Aug. 5, 2009 - 11:11 AM ET #1723

MME  I would assume the above #1772  is the formula of explanation? no problem, please PM with formula's, attached for discussion... best for you always
 
SN
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MME  I would assume the above #1772  is the formula of explanation? no problem, please PM with formula's, attached for discussion... best for you always
 
SN
 
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Posted: Aug. 5, 2009 - 11:28 AM ET #1724

[Quote: Originally Posted by moneylog]
Any pod for today?
 
Thanks

  Rangers+124 ML

 

 

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[Quote: Originally Posted by moneylog]
Any pod for today?
 
Thanks

  Rangers+124 ML

 

 

 
 
sports_Network
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Posted: Aug. 5, 2009 - 11:48 AM ET #1725

DarkHorse21,  I would assume the above #1772  is the formula of explanation? no problem, please PM with formula's, attached for discussion... best for you always
 
SN
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DarkHorse21,  I would assume the above #1772  is the formula of explanation? no problem, please PM with formula's, attached for discussion... best for you always
 
SN
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